The advantages of 1. Bitcoin are exaggerated: decentralization, no transaction cost, and anti-(anti-) inflation.
It is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over-interpreted. First of all, Bitcoin is a decentralized currency, and there is no risk that the central bank will control the money supply and affect the market value. This is a conditional advantage. Bitcoin is now mainly in the hands of large households, and the market depth is insufficient. The current trading behavior of large households is also very easy to affect the price of Bitcoin. Even if decentralization is regarded as an advantage when Bitcoin is fully mature, then the premise of decentralization needs to be added. In addition, centralized and decentralized online payment systems are quite different in the degree and types of financial risks they expose.
Secondly, the low transaction cost of Bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, due to the rising difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of related trading platforms on transaction costs will increase, which will inevitably increase transaction costs. Finally, the confidentiality of bitcoin transactions remains to be discussed. The principle of bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of every bitcoin transaction stored in every machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find out all the transactions from these data.
Compared with other advantages, the anti-inflation or anti-inflation property advantages of advertising can not stand scrutiny. Although its supply is stable, according to its algorithm, the supply ceiling is locked, but unless the world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, if it is only used as a means of payment or a means of value storage, it will not be able to stop the currency from overshooting, just as the existence of gold cannot inhibit the growth of currencies in all countries at present. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the internet), inflation in the whole world or some countries will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the function of using bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or it is highly hypothetical. As for preventing inflation, that is, having a value storage function, it needs to have properties similar to gold, but in reality, the essential properties and prospects of bits are still difficult to compare with gold, as shown in the following figure.
2. The prospect of Bitcoin is too high.
The market's expectations for the future of Bitcoin are generally relatively high compared with gold and the US dollar. The degree to which gold is recognized lies not only in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). Theoretically, bitcoin, as an electronic currency, does not have a unique and exclusive position, let alone become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not advisable to expect too much bits. As an electronic currency, bits have the first-Mover advantage. If its security is guaranteed, its most optimistic prospect is to use it as a means of payment in the local field.
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of Bitcoin this round.
Under the credit currency system, people lack confidence in the currencies of various countries and are pessimistic about the economic prospects, which is the big environment for the current round of bitcoin rise. The speculation of the major traders in the market and the merchants in the bitcoin derivative market and the speculative psychology of the participants further accelerated its rise. Events such as BTCChina's $5 million investment and Bernanke's statement are the main driving factors for the recent surge.
However, many predators began to enter the market and buy in large quantities, which not only pushed up the price of drill bits, but also increased the market risk. Chamas, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on Bitcoin and plans to spend another100000. Bitcoin Investment Trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising150,000 USD. While further increasing their holdings of bitcoin, these people's investments have concentrated on holding bitcoin, which has strengthened the influence of individuals and institutions on bitcoin prices and increased market risks.
4. There is still a strong room for speculation in the short to medium term.
Although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospects of Bits, it is likely that Bits will still have a strong room for speculation in such a short period of time within 1 year. As mentioned above, the bit creator preaches that the generation of Bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, and it is different from the credit currency of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries may be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy losses of traditional asset markets, Bitcoin has a better space for speculation and imagination.
5. The use of Bitcoin in some sensitive fields highlights the increasingly prominent position of the information field in national security.
The US government shut down the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "AssassinationMarket" even marked the sale and murder with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassination market is an ultra-anarchist, alias KuwabatakeSanjuro. Both the Prism Gate incident and the use of Bitcoin in related sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of the information field in national security. The establishment of the National Security Council proposed by the Third Plenary Session will play an important role in China's security strategy, expanding from the traditional national defense, stability/urban security to the emerging dominance of information security.