China walked out of the predicament in a unique way and created a miracle. After 29 years of rapid economic growth, many problems have accumulated. How to solve problems, ease contradictions, inherit history, and open the way is the task before this ancient and young country.
This paper attempts to start with North Korea's nuclear test, and analyze the dilemma faced by China, the strategic situation of countries around the world and the game contest between countries to safeguard national interests in the case of the United States' overtaking. Especially when the world situation is at an inflection point, how can China break the global strategy of the United States and lay a good foundation for peaceful rise and national rejuvenation?
Although China is not as dangerous as it was more than 50 years ago, nor is it as poor and weak as it was more than 20 years ago, China is also facing a major crisis at this time, so we should not take it lightly. 1976 After the Cultural Revolution, the people of China breathed a sigh of relief and the civil strife stopped. 1979 The counterattack against Vietnam won a safe strategic space. Although it did not have far-reaching influence as the Korean War, it was also a wonderful move for China to break the game. Since then, China has made great strides and developed rapidly, and now it has become an important economic entity in the world. The potential that broke out from 9.6 million square kilometers of land has made the world know China again to some extent.
China has experienced more than 20 years of reform and opening up, and its foreign trade and foreign exchange reserves have grown rapidly. At the beginning of 2007, it exceeded 1 trillion dollars, increasing at the rate of 20 billion dollars every month, and now it has reached10.5 trillion dollars. China's goods are highly competitive in other countries and have won a broad market in the United States, Europe and Africa. China is playing an increasingly important role in the United Nations. The situation seems to be very good now, but what should we do next? This awakened oriental lion, a giant with restored dignity, wants to find his rightful place in the world. The potential of China's development is that the United States is deeply worried while enjoying cheap goods from China. Sooner or later, the development of China will challenge the fundamental interests of the United States. Moreover, the United States has never given up its plan to contain and divide China, but its economic interests are consistent, and future contradictions are intertwined with real interests. Today is a constant disagreement, and we must fight back.
Countries that have experienced too much suffering and humiliation will become sensitive, and countries that have enjoyed too much happiness and happiness will become optimistic. For the two countries in the world that attach the most importance to reality-the United States and China, due to their special history, China tends to be sensitive, while the United States tends to be optimistic. However, with the rapid development of China and the gradual decline of the United States, China elites and vested interests began to become blindly optimistic because of the rapid material satisfaction and the containment of China by the United States. On the contrary, American elites are becoming more and more sensitive because they have witnessed the rapid rise of China and the potential of China's future development. In the interweaving of these two feelings, the struggle and cooperation between China and the United States presents dazzling complexity and unpredictability.
The situation in China is dangerous in the following aspects:
First, the threat of the United States.
America's pursuit of world hegemony is not achieved overnight. It has a successful model and vested interests. The rapid development of China makes the United States nervous. China, a strategic partner of the United States in the Clinton era, has now become a strategic competitor. The United States will step up its crackdown on China in various fields in the future. Under the full suppression of this superpower, China's strategic living space will face great challenges. After all, the United States is a colossus for any country in the world, and its fundamental policy changes will have a far-reaching impact on China's politics, economy and military affairs. The oil issue, the East China Sea issue and Taiwan Province Province issue are all the best weapons of the United States.
Second, the international environment is not optimistic and the development space is restricted.
By suppressing China, Japan became a deep-water bomb; The politics in Taiwan Province Province is in chaos, and Taiwan independence is getting worse and worse in the voice of the United States; Iran is in danger of national subjugation; China's strategic resource-oil, is facing a major threat; With the support of the United States, India wants to take advantage of the fire to rob against China; It is difficult for Russia to boost its strength in the short term, and it is unrealistic to expect Russia and China to join hands in depth; Southeast Asia provoked by the United States is also unfriendly. It can be said that although China has the support of Russia and the DPRK, it is also fighting alone.
Third, there are many internal problems.
China's economic reform has been going on for more than 20 years, but it has also accumulated many inevitable problems. The democratic political system with China characteristics needs to be improved and the political reform needs to be deepened. In order to seize the golden opportunity and the grand strategy of rising, China attaches too much importance to economic construction, or its excessive pursuit of economy in the early stage of economic construction has brought some negative effects. The reform of state-owned enterprises has not been finally successful, and the loss of state-owned assets has not been curbed; Financial risks are increasing, and real estate may kidnap China's economy; Education industrialization has far-reaching influence; The health system is not perfect; The gap between the rich and the poor is widening, and regional development is uneven; The moral crisis is prominent.
1. The democratic political system with China characteristics needs to be improved.
In China's special history and crisis-ridden reality, the people of China 100 have been actively exploring and practicing political stability, economic development and promoting democratic politics for more than a year, but they can't implement effective political, economic and democratic systems in line with their own national conditions without interference. The relationship between political stability, economic development and democratic politics is complicated. In view of the complexity of this issue, we elaborate the relationship between political stability, economic development and promoting democratic politics in five stages. At present, the pace of political system reform is slow. Of course, political system reform must be cautious. It must remain unchanged, and the power of the government and the ruling party cannot be reduced invisibly, nor can it be changed indiscriminately. It will split like the Soviet Union, giving opportunities to countries under the banner of democracy. From the perspective of political stability and economic development, Mao Zedong's new-democratic revolution established a unified China, and Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up opened the prelude to economic development, laying an important foundation for China's take-off today and achieving the goal that China people have been striving for for for more than 100 years. But problems always test the wisdom and ability of our Chinese nation. How to promote democratic politics, strengthen the construction of political parties, promote democracy in line with national interests and people's interests, ensure that national interests are not harmed by some countries that deliberately pursue ideological aggression in the world, ensure that people's interests are not harmed by vested interest groups and monopoly forces, control corruption, improve government efficiency, protect citizens' rights, keep close ties between cadres and the masses, win people's hearts, and make the country develop sustainably in ideological progress. These problems test the leaders' ruling ability, system construction ability, understanding of China's democracy, and inheriting and innovating the present and future history. If this problem can be solved, this man will be another great man after Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
There is an undercurrent in the economic field.
The reform of state-owned enterprises has not been finally completed, and there are many problems in the process of reform. State-owned assets are still losing. Large foreign companies take advantage of China's reorganization to look after China's enterprises and wait for opportunities to control them. With the sharp increase of financial risks, the pressure of RMB appreciation has increased, foreign hot money has poured in, and underground banks have made waves. With high housing prices, real estate may kidnap China's economy. The waste and pollution of domestic resources are serious, and sustainable development is worrying. For example, the forest coverage rate in Japan is nearly 64%, which is one of the countries with the highest forest coverage rate in the world. The forest coverage rate in China is only 18.2 1%, and it is necessary to export wood to Japan to make disposable chopsticks. The lifeline of oil is at stake. Without the stability of oil, China's economy will fluctuate violently. The imbalance between urban and rural areas and between regions has not been fundamentally changed.
3. Education
Ten years of trees, a hundred years of tree people; A century-long plan, education-oriented. After high tuition fees, more enrollment, Gai Lou and great development, higher education has many disadvantages. High tuition fees do not bring high quality. The high tuition fees in colleges and universities make many poor students look forward to sighing. The function of education to cultivate talents and reserve intelligence has been eroded by the industrialization of education.
Of course, education is also very helpless, some government departments do not act, social problems can not be solved, and the constant transfer to the education sector also makes education overwhelmed. But this can't be an excuse to attribute all the reasons to the outside, and the problem of education itself should be put forward in particular.
The changes in education in recent years can be summarized by several "changes", namely, the industrialization of education, the marketization of fees, the commercialization of students, and the economization of colleges and universities. The industrialization of education in China has caused a great decline in the quality of education. The industrialization of education itself is problematic. I really admire the courage of people a few years ago. I still don't know the specific definition of educational industrialization, but according to my understanding and observation, the educational industrialization in China is to treat schools as enterprises, students as commodities and earn money from parents. In this way, educational alienation has become a tool for some departments and interest groups to make profits. Education is corrupt and mercenary. Poor students can no longer afford to read books, and the situation that students in poor areas can't change their fate through reading is bound to get worse. Basic education in rural areas is declining, and the dropout rate of junior high school students is surprisingly high.
A few years ago, the theory of "reading is useless" was rampant, but reading is useful after all. After the "reading is useless", another argument has slowly emerged, that is, recognizing that reading is useful, but the price paid for reading is too high, and the threshold for reading is too high, which exceeds the current affordability and the expectation of future benefits. Some students, especially poor students, gradually give up studying, college dropout. I call this phenomenon "reading helplessness". It's not that I don't want to read it, but that I can't afford it. Some people use this reasoning to illustrate the embarrassment of "reading helplessness". "I went to college with debts, and I still can't find a job after finishing college. The salary for finding a job is not high. It is better to go out to work early to earn money. "
The emergence of "reading helplessness theory" is the biggest mockery of educational industrialization.
Since 1994, the tuition fees of China University have soared from several hundred yuan to 5,000 yuan per year to 10000 yuan, which is 30 to 40 times. In the ten years from 65438 to 0994, the per capita income of the people increased less than four times. The high cost of university makes it unaffordable for some families, especially low-income rural families. In some rural areas, the cost of going to college is the total income of a family for more than ten years, which is not even enough. Every year we hear about students who commit suicide because they can't afford to go to school. When can we not hear them? High university fees have become an important reason why poor families in rural areas are poorer.
The problem of education is becoming more and more prominent. Not to mention how many college students plagiarize papers and muddle along, it is sad to spend millions or tens of millions to build a school gate. The quality of a school lies not in how big its campus is, how tall its buildings are and how luxurious its gates are, but in its teachers' level, teaching quality and whether it can train talents and serve the society.
Harvard University, located in Massachusetts, USA: a pile of gray-black red bricks, a black iron gate, a stone engraved with the name of the school are embedded in the pile of red bricks, and there is a sculpture of john harvard at the far end of the forest vagina, which is the gate of Harvard University. In the past 372 years, countless scientists, writers and politicians have walked out of this simple school gate. Among them, there are 7 American presidents and 40 Nobel Prize winners. Look at other people's doors and look at ours. We even have a more luxurious primary school gate. Isn't it shameful to compare our achievements?
Educator Cai Yuanpei once had an incisive judgment, "The greatness of a university is not the greatness of architecture, but the greatness of a master."
Conant, the president of Harvard University for 20 years, said: "The honor of a university lies not in its architecture and quantity, but in its quality from generation to generation."
Some people may say that Harvard University may not have the money to build a gate. It's not about money at all. By 2006, Harvard University had received a total of $29.2 billion in donations. If they pay attention to appearance, they can build any kind of super-luxury door, but what we see is a simple but shocking door.
Countless people in China can't afford to read books because they have no money. When they are treated unfairly because of the unfair distribution of educational resources, some people are extravagant enough to build luxury doors. These millions and tens of millions of "spare money" with no real value look so dazzling.
The unfair distribution of educational resources is a problem worthy of people's attention. In recent years, huge school selection fees frequently appear in newspapers, and unfair distribution of educational resources is the root cause of school selection fees. According to Xinhua News Agency. Com, in 2005, the standard of choosing schools for senior high schools in Guangzhou is: 40,000 yuan per student for provincial and municipal ordinary high schools and national vocational high schools, 23,000 yuan per student for ordinary high schools and vocational high schools, and 3 1 10,000 yuan per student for provincial and municipal vocational high schools. When students enter school, they will be paid in one lump sum in three years. There are also individual "good" schools, and the school selection fee can be as high as 70,000. What is educational equity?
Confucius' "teaching without class" has ceased to exist in some areas.
At this stage, the country also saw the hidden problems and made some adjustments to education. The "two exemptions and one subsidy" in the compulsory education stage is a remedy to the existing problems in education to a certain extent. However, if we can't reverse the harm of educational industrialization to education and reform a series of problems caused by unfair distribution of educational resources in colleges and universities, it is still difficult to fundamentally solve the problems. Moreover, it can be said with certainty that the problem of corruption in colleges and universities will inevitably become increasingly exposed with the passage of time.
4. The medical system is not perfect.
Let's look at medical care again. The current medical system benefits a small number of people, but makes most people stop seeing a doctor and see a doctor with cold heart. How many people are heavily in debt because of seeing a doctor, and how many people have to wait for death at home because they have no money to see a doctor. In the vast rural areas of China, medical security for 800 million to 900 million people is lacking. A slightly bigger illness will put one or even several families in trouble. China's drug prices continue to fall, making it difficult for people to seek medical treatment. In the countryside, because there is no money, there are some minor illnesses and some incurable diseases. Ge Yanfeng, Deputy Director of Social Development Research Department of China the State Council Development Research Center, said on July 28th, 2005 that the latest medical reform research report led by him made a general evaluation and reflection on the reform of China's medical and health system. He said, "At present, the reform of the medical and health system in China is basically unsuccessful." . On September 4, 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Guiding Opinions on the Development of the Pharmaceutical Industry in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, acknowledging that the medical reform was unsuccessful.
The medical system is related to people's livelihood and is bound to be related to people's hearts; It is related to people's hearts and stability; It's about stability and the overall situation.
5. Social equity
Fairness is always relative, and all societies cannot be absolutely fair. However, when unfairness has reached a certain limit, we still ignore the above words as an excuse, and society will accumulate too much dissatisfaction, which will definitely affect social stability.
Since the reform and opening up, while the income level of most urban and rural residents has improved, there has also been a trend of polarization. China's Gini coefficient is between 0.4 and 0.5 (0.45 in 1995). According to the general standard, Gini coefficient below 0.2 means absolute average; 0.3-0.4 is reasonable; Greater than 0.4 means that the gap is too large. Therefore, it is necessary to eliminate the root causes of unfairness in policy, safeguard social equity in concrete actions, and pay more attention to low-income groups and vulnerable groups.
Confucius said more than two thousand years ago: "You don't suffer from widowhood or inequality." . When a farmer, especially a farmer in the west, works hard all his life with his back to the loess on the land cultivated by his ancestors, his income is not as good as that of an ordinary meter reader who only copies the meter four times a day in a power company rumored on the Internet some time ago. Isn't the contrast here heartbreaking?
When an ambitious and capable person in poverty can't grow and progress reasonably in reality, and when a bottom-level person can't get ahead through normal realistic efforts, can this society be recognized by these people? If the income distribution gap widens excessively, there will be more and more hidden dangers in society.
6. The moral crisis is prominent.
Guan Zhong in the Spring and Autumn Period said: "The granary knows etiquette, food and clothing know honor and disgrace." But with the rapid development of economy, morality seems to have regressed. The traditional virtues of the Chinese nation are submerged in the tide of market economy, which are manifested in vulgarization of social atmosphere, low moral quality, lack of lofty beliefs and inversion of honor and disgrace.
There are many problems, not terrible. The terrible thing is that we are numb to the problem, turn a blind eye, and even deliberately cover it up.
Many things in the world exist between our thoughts: whether to do it or not. There is always a reason for wanting to do it, and there is always an excuse for not wanting to do it. Confucius said, "Benevolence, far?" I want benevolence, I am benevolence. "
On the road of national prosperity and national rejuvenation, although there are many difficulties and numerous obstacles, if we have Lin Zexu's mind of "all rivers run into the sea, with great tolerance"; There is Du Fu's concern about "worrying about Li Yuan in poor years and sighing in the intestines"; Have the courage of Lu Xun's "true warrior, dare to face the bleak life and dare to face the dripping blood"; There is Mao Zedong's self-confidence that he will be a water hammer with a distance of 3,000 miles in 200 years. There is a belief that "natural health, gentlemen strive for self-improvement"; Have the perseverance of "the brave bite their teeth and swallow blood"; Have the persistence of "sticking to the castle peak and not relaxing"; There is an action of "It's a long way to go, and I will go up and down for it". Concentrate and manage hard, and we will overcome difficulties and usher in a bright future.