In fact, the analysis of the impact of a large number of banknotes printed in the United States on China can be understood as the analysis of the impact of loose monetary policy in the United States on China. This problem has always attracted the attention of economists. Due to the unique position of the Federal Reserve as a "global central bank", a large number of documents prove that the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will have obvious spillover effects on other countries in the world.

I. Related impacts

1. Foreign trade export

This is good news for foreign trade. If the price in the United States rises sharply, it will lead them to increase their demand for imports. While other countries have not recovered from the new epidemic, only China has resumed normal production.

2. Exchange rate trends

At present, the RMB exchange rate remains at around 6.4, and there is an upward trend at present. The essence of releasing the dollar is to accelerate the depreciation of the dollar, but according to the consistent style of the United States, release the water first, and then guide the dollar to appreciate and harvest.

In addition, the rise in oil prices will ease the pressure of dollar depreciation. All the oil in the world is settled in dollars. When demand increases, the dollar will be supported.

3. Raw materials

This huge sum of money in the United States will inevitably lead to global inflation, and China will also face "imported inflation". With more money, the demand exceeds the supply, and raw materials such as copper, iron, aluminum and plastics will continue to rise, and business owners will start to have a headache again.

It will take some time for the United States to digest this 654.38+0.9 billion, maybe more than a year. Our enterprise can make some targeted plan adjustments or contingency measures.

Second, related theoretical research.

Zhang Xiaohui, a senior researcher at China Financial Forty Forum and dean of Wudaokou Finance College in Tsinghua University, recently published the book "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy under Multiple Constraints", which made a detailed analysis on this issue. The specific content is shared as follows:

After the financial crisis in 2008, the effect of traditional American monetary policy was distorted, which gave birth to a large number of unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing. The impact of these loose monetary policies based on quantitative easing on emerging markets is mainly divided into three aspects:

First, the quantitative easing policy in the United States caused capital outflows, and a large number of US dollar loans flowed to non-American regions, and the liquidity of the international market increased significantly. It has also had a great impact on the inflation level of other countries.

Second, emerging market countries are sensitive to the spillover reaction of quantitative easing in the United States. Financial globalization makes the bond yields of various countries linked, which reduces the central bank's ability to regulate the domestic financial environment. The withdrawal of the United States from quantitative easing policy will lead to the decrease of capital flow, output and exchange rate depreciation in emerging countries.

The third is the duality of ternary paradox. The ternary paradox means that in an open economy, a country can only choose between the independence of monetary policy, the stability of exchange rate and the free flow of capital. There is an international financial cycle in capital flow, asset price and credit growth. Countries with large credit flows are more affected by the international financial cycle. The monetary policy of big countries will affect the leverage ratio of international banks and the capital flow and credit growth of the international financial system. Therefore, as long as the capital flows, regardless of the exchange rate policy, the international financial cycle will automatically limit the domestic monetary policy, and the ternary paradox is therefore a binary paradox.

In addition to the above macro-theoretical analysis, some researchers have also analyzed the micro-effects. Here are some aspects that you may be concerned about:

First, foreign exchange reserves may shrink. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves exceed US$ 3 trillion, and the quantitative easing policy of the United States has led to an excessive currency, and the depreciation of the US dollar will shrink the value of China's foreign exchange reserves.

Secondly, we should increase the inflationary pressure in China, which is also our greatest concern.

In terms of commodity prices, since commodities are mostly denominated in US dollars, the increase in global dollar liquidity will lead to the depreciation of the US dollar, thus pushing up commodity prices. Because China needs to import a lot of raw materials and energy, rising commodity prices may also push up the production costs in China, bringing imported inflation.

At the same time, compared with the United States, China's economy is the first to recover, and its return on assets may be higher, which will attract short-term international capital inflows, thus pushing up the asset price level of capital inflow countries, such as stock market and real estate market. The risk of asset bubbles in the financial industry has increased, further aggravating the inflationary pressure in China.

Third, the impact on international trade is uncertain. The impact of increased dollar liquidity on China's international trade is uncertain, which mainly depends on the interaction of expenditure conversion effect and income absorption effect.

From the perspective of expenditure conversion effect, the increase of dollar liquidity, the depreciation of dollar and the relative appreciation of RMB are not conducive to China's exports, while the increase of RMB purchasing power will promote the increase of imports, while the decrease of net exports will lead to the decline of output. But from the perspective of income absorption effect, more dollars will help stimulate market demand and China's exports. Judging from the results of this year, China's foreign trade situation has exceeded expectations. It shows that the income absorption effect is significant.

Fourth, the leverage ratio has increased and the debt risk has intensified. Under the background of loose global monetary policy, although China is one of the few countries that adopt normal monetary policy, due to the epidemic, the central bank has made great efforts to increase liquidity and strengthen the countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy. The overall financing environment is relatively relaxed, and the financing scale has increased substantially. Enterprises can tide over the difficulties more easily by obtaining low-interest loans, crossing bridges, renewing loans and other funds. But in the long run, it will increase the risk of corporate bond payment, improve the level of bad debts of banks, and then undermine financial stability.

There is no denying that the loose monetary policy in the United States will bring us an impact that cannot be ignored. However, it is impossible for the United States to maintain such a loose monetary policy. In the past, the withdrawal of loose monetary policy from the United States will inevitably have an impact on China. This also needs our attention. For example, in May of 20 13, then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that the Fed might cut the scale of quantitative easing, which triggered a "reduction panic". A large amount of funds, especially those invested in securities portfolios, quickly withdrew from emerging markets in a short period of time, which led to a general decline in exchange rates and asset prices in emerging market economies, causing a significant impact.