We should look at these changes and challenges calmly and rationally. First of all, it must be pointed out that inflation is still the primary problem facing China. Although the increase of CPI in August has declined, it is still at a high level. Especially in September and June, 5438+00 was influenced by Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. In addition, the pressure of imported inflation is still great. In August, foreign exchange holdings increased by 70% from the previous month. Under the influence of these factors, it is difficult for short-term CPI to drop significantly, and it is also very difficult to achieve the annual control goal.
Secondly, the moderate reduction of China's GDP growth rate is in line with the development goals and management expectations, so there is nothing to make a fuss about. According to the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, changing the mode of economic development and improving the quality and efficiency of development will be the focus of our work in the next five years and even for a long time. Therefore, the country also lowered the GDP growth rate to 7% during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.
Therefore, we believe that China should continue to adhere to a tight monetary policy and take preventing inflation as a long-term main policy objective. At the same time, facing the complicated international economic situation, China should not rashly shoulder the heavy responsibility of saving the global economy. The reasons are as follows: first, there are still many problems to be solved in their own development; Second, the policy legacy after the 2008 international financial crisis is still there. If there is another currency shift and a strong economic stimulus policy is introduced, not only the efforts to control inflation and adjust the structure will be wasted, but also the problems in China's economic development will be aggravated.
It must be pointed out that under the general tone of austerity, it is necessary to make some appropriate fine-tuning of monetary policy according to the actual situation. For example, for important groups such as small and medium-sized enterprises that are in urgent need of funds, policies should be "directionally relaxed" and more preferential policies should be allocated to them, which is the key to ensure the sustained and stable economy of China. In recent weeks, the regulatory authorities in China have also hinted that it is possible to relax the loan restrictions on agriculture, public housing and small enterprises, and introduced measures such as the development plan for small and medium-sized enterprises. This is a positive signal, which should be adhered to, but we should grasp the rhythm and strength.
Second, 20 12 Interpretation of Macroeconomic Policies
"The overall requirements of the central government for economic work next year show that the tone of China's macro-control remains unchanged, which is of great significance for consolidating and continuing the good momentum of economic and social development."
1. Grasp the word "stable" and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.
China's economic situation is developing in the expected direction of macro-control, the economic growth rate continues to slow down, and prices are moderately falling. Zhang Xiaojing said: at present, the endogenous power of the economy has been enhanced, the economic fundamentals have continued to improve, and new features have emerged in the economic operation. The tone of macro-control needs to grasp the word "stability".
Stability means maintaining basically stable macroeconomic policies, stable and rapid economic development, basically stable overall price level and stable overall social situation. Zhang Xiaojing said that stability is reflected in macro-control policies, that is, to maintain the continuity and stability of macro-economic policies.
First of all, the actual situation of economic operation determines that the basic orientation of macro-control in China does not need major adjustment for the time being.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP in the first three quarters was 32,069.2 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year at comparable prices, and the economic growth rate continued to slow down. 165438+ 10 CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose by 4.2% year-on-year, hitting a four-month low of/kloc-0. At present, the national economy shows a good trend of rapid growth, stable prices, good benefits and improved people's livelihood. Although the economic growth slows down and prices fall moderately, China's economy will not only double bottom, but also "hard landing". Zhang Xiaojing said that the tone of macro-control remains unchanged, which is conducive to unifying understanding, enhancing confidence and rallying strength.
Secondly, stabilizing the overall price level is still an important task before macro-control.
At present, the price inflection point has appeared, and the domestic cost inflation expectation is decreasing, but the uncertainty of the domestic and international economic situation will push up the price level at any time. Lu Zhongyuan, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center, said that whether food prices will once again become a driving factor of inflation in the future is worthy of attention. At present, the prices of three products are prone to rise, one is agricultural products with slow growth in labor productivity, the other is products that cannot be adjusted through trade, such as real estate, and the third is resource products.
Abundant international liquidity will raise commodity prices. Despite the current impact of the European debt crisis, the total demand of major western developed countries such as Europe and the United States has shrunk, which has pushed down the international commodity prices in a short period of time. The planned 2 trillion euros to save the liquidity of the European debt crisis and the possible QE3 (the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy) in the United States will greatly stimulate aggregate demand and push up commodity prices, thus constituting imported inflation expectations for China.
At present, the European debt crisis and the huge uncertainty of world economic recovery have brought us some difficulties, but the orientation of macro-control does not need to be changed. As far as the European debt crisis is concerned, Zhang Xiaojing analyzed that the direct involvement of the China government and financial departments in European debt is not deep, and the most direct impact of the European debt crisis on China is the decline of external demand, while the negative impact on China's economy is limited and controllable. Zhang Xiaojing said: "It is particularly important to keep the tone of macro-control unchanged."
Steady, not quiet. Chen Houyi, vice-president of China Economic Law Research Association, said that in order to maintain stability, it is necessary to handle the relationship between speed, structure and price as a whole according to the new changes and new characteristics of the domestic and international economic situation, especially to put solving outstanding contradictions and problems in economic and social development and effectively preventing potential risks in economic operation in an important position of macro-control.
2. Grasp the word "Jin" and enhance the pertinence, flexibility and predictability of macro-control.
Progress means continuing to seize and make good use of the important strategic opportunity period of China's development, making new progress in transforming the mode of economic development, making new breakthroughs in deepening reform and opening up, and making new achievements in improving people's livelihood.
Zhang Xiaojing said that in order to make progress in macro-control, it is necessary to deeply analyze the economic development, changes and operational trends, accurately grasp the intensity, rhythm and focus of macro-control, and enhance the pertinence, flexibility and predictability of macro-control.
At present, the unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable contradictions and problems in China's economic development are still outstanding. The downward pressure of economic growth and the pressure of rising prices coexist, some enterprises have difficulties in production and operation, and the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is grim. There are also some potential risks that cannot be ignored in the economic and financial fields. At the same time, world economic growth has slowed down, the growth rate of international trade has slowed down, the international financial market has been violently turbulent, and various risks have increased significantly. Looking forward to next year, the overall world economic situation will remain very severe and complicated, and the instability and uncertainty of world economic recovery will rise. Chen Houyi said: to maintain the good momentum of economic and social development, macro-control faces complex tasks.
While the economic growth continues to slow down, the leading indicator PMI (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) 1 1 dropped from 50.4% last month to 49% in1October, and fell below the critical point of 50% for the first time since March 2009. According to the research report of CICC, the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter will be further reduced due to weak external demand.
While controlling prices, macro-control should stabilize economic growth. From 20 12 65438+ 10/0/,China will carry out pilot projects to deepen the reform of the value-added tax system in some regions and industries, and gradually change the industries that currently collect business tax into value-added tax. The local debt pilot has been launched. Recently, the Ministry of Finance issued the "Pilot Measures for Local Governments to Issue Bonds by themselves in 20 1 1 year", saying that in 20 1 1 year, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shenzhen launched pilot projects for local governments to issue bonds by themselves. According to the changes in the economic situation, the central bank recently lowered the deposit reserve ratio.
Strengthen and improve macro-control and promote economic restructuring. For a long time, the contribution rate of consumption to China's economic growth is far lower than that of investment, both in scale and speed. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 1308 1 1 100 million yuan, with a nominal year-on-year increase of 17.0% (real increase after deducting the price factor1.3%). In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 21227.4 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 24.9% year-on-year (real increase of 1.6% after deducting the price factor). The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized speeding up economic restructuring and promoting independent and coordinated economic development. Efforts will be made to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and promote coordinated regional development.
Next year is an important year for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, and it is of great significance to maintain a good momentum of economic and social development. Zhang Xiaojing said that stabilizing growth, controlling prices, adjusting the structure, changing the mode and benefiting people's livelihood are not only the top-level system design, but also issues that people care about. Strengthen the pertinence, flexibility and predictability of macro-policies, strive for progress in stability, face difficulties, and achieve steady and rapid development of the national economy.