So there is no direct relationship between the two, only indirect relationship. The indirect relationship is that it is easier to get loans when the reserve ratio is lowered. After all, the effective circulation of money has increased. And lower interest rates, the relationship is that your financing costs can be lower.
Question 2: What does "leverage" mean in the economy? Economic lever is an economic category in which socialist society consciously uses economic laws to mobilize and adjust the social reproduction process (production, distribution, exchange and consumption) and make it develop in the direction with the greatest economic effect and the most in line with production purposes.
Question 3: What does the leverage ratio of mortgage mean? Is the leverage ratio of China's housing mortgage high? According to international standards, the ratio of stock mortgage loan to savings (29%) or financial assets (15%) is not high in China compared with western countries. However, the author thinks that the macro-level index judgment and simple horizontal comparison can't reflect many structural problems, and the structural risk of China residents' mortgage leverage is coming quietly.
The leverage of mortgage is far less than that of developed countries such as the United States and Japan.
First of all, there is a big gap between China and the United States and Japan in the level of social security coverage and equalization, and the future expenditure and uncertain expenditure of China residents are much higher than those of developed countries. At the same time, the growth rate of per capita disposable income (including the income of migrant workers) has dropped from over 65,438+00% in 2065,438+02 to 5%-8% at present, and the weak economy will continue to drag down the income growth of residents. In fact, it is difficult for China's urbanization rate to reach the level of 70%-80% in the United States and Japan. Therefore, the ratio of mortgage to GDP and other indicators can not be simply compared with developed countries.
The time distribution of mortgage is uneven, and the risk of incremental mortgage is high.
In 2009, China's mortgage balance was only 4.76 trillion yuan, and this figure reached 16.4 trillion yuan in June this year, quadrupling. Although the official media still insist that the leverage ratio of China's overall residential mortgage is not high, 75% of mortgage loans are issued during the period of rapid housing price increase, and nearly half of them are issued after 20 13, which is the fastest two rounds of housing price increase cycle in recent years.
The data shows that the existing mortgage risk before 20 13 has been covered by the rise in house prices. However, after nearly 20 years of unilateral rise in housing prices, the risk of asset bubble has increased sharply when the total housing price (2 19 trillion yuan) in 50 big cities has exceeded that in the United States. Especially since the beginning of last year, the risk of new mortgage has become increasingly prominent.
The rapid rise in housing prices has kept the leverage ratio in big cities high.
20 15 and the first half of this year, the sales area of the property market increased by 6.5% and 25% respectively, the sales increased by 14.4% and 46%, and the new mortgage increased by 22% and 96% respectively, indicating that the proportion of transactions in hot cities in the east has expanded and the leverage ratio has risen rapidly, which is the risk. shzyshange44
Take Shenzhen as an example, the new mortgage in 20 15 years is 2.2 times that in 20 14 years, and the average loan ratio is 6.5%. In the first half of this year, the balance of personal mortgage in Shenzhen (990 billion) doubled compared with the end of 20 14. Therefore, if the mortgage interest rate of about 30% in third-and fourth-tier cities and some second-tier cities is deducted, the mortgage leverage ratio in big cities is very high.
The risk of "secondary leverage" is difficult to estimate. At the beginning of this year, in order to promote the prosperity of the real estate market, the central bank comprehensively relaxed the first home loan recognition, and the down payment ratio was as low as 20%, encouraging leverage. But even so, the down payment for mortgage payment in first-tier cities will cost hundreds of thousands or even millions. Therefore, some property buyers are realizing "secondary leverage" through credit and consumer loans, and even through disguised "down payment loans".
The author believes that "secondary leverage" is tantamount to playing with fire. Now not only speculative buyers take the initiative to increase leverage, but low-income people are also increasing leverage, because housing prices are too high to afford, and only high leverage can realize the housing dream. However, the problem is that if house prices fall and income goes down in the future, this part of leverage risk will rise sharply.
The whole people quickly "added leverage"
While blowing up the housing price bubble, it is also rapidly pushing up financial risks. In the first half of this year, the national personal mortgage accounted for 16.3% of all loans, a record high, 2. 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year; Of all the new loans in the first half of the year, personal loans accounted for 4 1.3%, twice the average level of 201-2015, and accounted for more than 50% in the second quarter of this year.
The reason is that on the one hand, due to the sluggish manufacturing industry, the non-performing rate of traditional industries has risen rapidly, and bank credit has begun to shift to the field of personal mortgage. On the other hand, the mortgage interest rate hit a record low, which encouraged the enthusiasm of adding leverage. In July, the average interest rate of the first home in China was 4.44%, a record low, and the mortgage interest rate in key cities was between 4. 1%-4.3%. The structure of bank loans is obviously inclined to medium and long-term personal housing loans.
Lever or deleverage? Regarding whether to leverage personal housing loans and how to balance "de-leverage" and "leverage", * * *' s answer is: reduce loan conditions (such as reducing down payment ratio) and increase loans. From this perspective, the leverage of individual housing will increase, and this logic is correct.
But from a macro point of view, if China wants to control the leverage ratio, it should master the whole leverage ratio, and the key is how to deal with the problem of excessive leverage ratio of enterprises. Some people are more concerned about the leverage of local governments ... >>
Question 4: How to calculate the specific growth rate and make econometric analysis?
Based on the ideal natural experiment in Bulgaria, this paper analyzes the changes of budget constraints affecting enterprise behavior and bankruptcy expenses. The widespread spread of the former 1997 SBC led to a serious financial crisis in the first half of 1997. At that time, there was a currency board and it was implemented hard.
Budget constraints. Importantly, these policies are adjusted in the company's labor level and the rising total unemployment rate (see table 1). At the same time, GDP growth, CPI inflation rate and real interest rate are stable at a low level. However, due to developed financial intermediaries, domestic credit contracted during the period of 1998-2000.
These data are used for econometric analysis, from Amadeus? Database. This example includes Wang Xu Company 1994-2000. This sample is divided into two sub-sample periods, covering 1994- 1996, which has the upper hand in SBC, and others-1998-2000- budget constraint hardening, currency board. In addition to the observation value, one is full for each sub-sample, each company makes lag and variation, eliminates extreme values, averages and verifies that sub-samples are still observed in each sub-sample.
The capital investment of literature, the adjustment of our company's manpower, and the change of accelerator model and specification. The key variable at the company level is the numerator and denominator of the result that the book value of total liabilities calculated by using the real record of company size and the book value of financial leveraged capital assets exceeds the total assets minus the short-term net assets. As a kind of control, this change is also used to measure the actual sales, development opportunities and labor costs of logs in that year, and to represent the measured values at the beginning of the ownership period of specific types and capital companies through three dummy variables, because of state, private and foreign ownership. Macroeconomic characteristics and changes are considered in the mechanism with budget constraints. By analyzing two independent periods, the sub-sample 1994- 1996 represents SBC period 1998-2000, which has hard budget constraints. Summary table of statistical reporting period 1. The significant difference between the two periods is obvious in the second section on macroeconomic conditions and specific characteristics, which shows that the change of company manpower is the beginning of functional changes in economic environment, company scale and financial leverage at various stages. However, in the literature of capital structure, leverage is considered to be measured simultaneously with enterprise value or its agent's increased sales. These factors may also have a direct impact on the adjustment of enterprise labor force. At the same time, in order to solve the problem, we use three structural equations of the joint estimation system of 3SLS process to explain the change, leverage and change of labor force, and sell them separately. All dependent variables can be regarded as equations of endogenous systems and systems with disturbances. The leverage ratio is retrogressive in terms of entity size, changing sales, specific labor costs and ownership types. The changes in sales are regression, enterprise scale and leveraged ownership.
The main estimation results, Table 2, support our main hypothesis: during the period of 1998-2000, only hard budget constraints played an important role (forcing state-owned enterprises to find jobs, which was redundant). Due to the potential influence of bias, re-estimated models and two-digit industrial sequences are included (columns 2 and 4). Another hypothesis is that the size of the company and the leverage effect on the financial market are agents, but they act as agents for industries such as technological differences. Removing industrial effects will not affect our results in any meaningful way.
4。 conclusion
In this paper, we analyze that the economic impact depends on the company's bankruptcy expenses and financial leverage to adjust the company's restructuring and budget restrictions through working conditions. The data we use comes from the budget constraints of software and hardware of Bulgarian manufacturers before and after the establishment of 1997, which enables the company to compare its currencies.
Controlling the change of sales volume, the ownership of the company's scale and type, and the extremely significant negative correlation between the company's financial leverage and the labor force hording are all constrained by the hard budget. The results show that the financial discipline of hardening budget constraints and policies is imposed on reconnecting the company's capital structure, optimizing resource allocation, and then guiding enterprise restructuring.
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I thank Joe Gradoff, Sanshuang Data and Chris Mince konings for their useful comments. The usual saying ... >>
Question 5: What does leverage mean in economics? In economics, leverage can be divided into broad sense and narrow sense, and narrow sense refers to "financial leverage". When an enterprise is short of its own funds, it can borrow money to raise funds, put them into production and get more benefits. Is to do your own thing with other people's money. But there are risks. If the enterprise loses money and the loss is greater than the amount of its own funds, it will be insolvent. General enterprises will find a suitable balance point, which can not only make more money, but also ensure controllable risks. This indicator is called "asset-liability ratio". Leverage in a broad sense covers all economic behaviors of "taking small bets to make big ones", but the core is borrowing. For example, in the futures market, you have one dollar, but the market allows you to place an order of ten dollars. If you lose a dollar during the period, you will be forced to quit. Leverage in macroeconomics works by using multiples of capital flows. Such as raising interest rates and cutting interest rates. The interest rate of plus or minus 0. 1% seems small, but the capital flow is not one-off, but repeated many times, so the effect will be magnified many times. Why do you say that? For example, Zhang San borrowed100000 from the bank. He may go shopping at the mall immediately, and the mall will deposit the money in the bank at night. The bank gave a loan to Li Si, who started the company, and the money was still in the bank account. The bank still has so much money, only two more debt relationships. When * * * raises or lowers the interest rate, it will also play a role in the multi-level lending relationship, thus producing an amplification effect. Changing the bank reserve ratio is similar.
Question 6: What do "leverage" and "deleveraging" mean in economics? Please explain, individual capital.
In economics, leverage can be divided into broad sense and narrow sense, and narrow sense refers to "financial leverage". When an enterprise is short of its own funds, it can borrow money to raise funds, put them into production and get more benefits. Is to do your own thing with other people's money. But there are risks. If the enterprise loses money and the loss is greater than the amount of its own funds, it will be insolvent. General enterprises will find a suitable balance point, which can not only make more money, but also ensure controllable risks. This indicator is called "asset-liability ratio".
Leverage in a broad sense covers all economic behaviors of "taking small bets to make big ones", but the core is borrowing. For example, in the futures market, you have one dollar, but the market allows you to place an order of ten dollars. If you lose a dollar during the period, you will be forced to quit.
Leverage in macroeconomics works by using multiples of capital flows. Such as raising interest rates and cutting interest rates. The interest rate of plus or minus 0. 1% seems small, but the capital flow is not one-off, but repeated many times, so the effect will be magnified many times. Why do you say that? For example, Zhang San borrowed100000 from the bank. He may go shopping at the mall immediately, and the mall will deposit the money in the bank at night. The bank gave a loan to Li Si, who started the company, and the money was still in the bank account. The bank still has so much money, only two more debt relationships.
When * * * raises or lowers the interest rate, it will also play a role in the multi-level lending relationship, thus producing an amplification effect.
Changing the bank reserve ratio is similar.
"De-leverage" is a process in which a company or individual reduces the use of financial leverage. The trend of returning the original "borrowed" money by various means (or tools).
When the capital market is improving, the high income brought by this model makes people ignore the existence of high risks. When the capital market began to decline, the negative effect of leverage began to stand out, and the risk was rapidly amplified. For enterprises and institutions with excessive leverage, rising asset prices can make them easily get high returns, and once asset prices fall, the losses will be huge and exceed capital, which will soon lead to bankruptcy. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the risk of high leverage began to be recognized by more people, and enterprises and institutions began to consider "deleveraging" one after another, reducing debts by selling assets and gradually repaying debts. This process has caused the prices of most assets such as stocks, bonds and real estate to fall.
The "deleveraging" of a single company or institution will not have much impact on the market and economy. But if the whole market enters this process, most institutions and investors are forced or take the initiative to spit out the money borrowed by leverage in the past, then the impact is obviously extraordinary.
During the economic boom, the financial market was flooded with a large number of complex and highly leveraged investment tools. If most institutions and investors join the ranks of "deleveraging", these investment tools will be dissolved, the derivatives market will also shrink, and related industries will be hurt. With the sharp decrease of market liquidity, it will lead to economic recession.
Question 7: The relationship between leverage ratio and risk. Foreign exchange, futures or other transactions involving margin will face leverage risk. Leverage means amplification, and a small amount of money can control a large amount of capital. Numerically, leverage is equal to the reciprocal of the margin ratio. For example, the margin ratio of Meijing Copper is 5%, so its leverage is 20 times, while the margin ratio of China Shanghai Copper is 12%, and its leverage is about 8.3 times. The leverage of foreign countries is higher than that of China, which is the advantage of the external market. Many people feel high risk as soon as they hear high leverage. In fact, high leverage has nothing to do with high risk. Risk is only related to the proportion and direction of your position. If your position ratio exceeds 50%, it is called a heavy position, so we say that you are at high risk at this time. Because once the market changes in the opposite direction, there will be less room and room for manoeuvre for your account to resist risks, and it is very likely that you will be out. The proportion of positions refers to the proportion of funds occupied by transactions in your account to the total funds, and the unoccupied funds are your room for manoeuvre. Under the same conditions, the greater the leverage, the smaller the risk! To compare, we must put it in the same situation, with the same capital of 50 thousand dollars and the same number of hands. Take refined copper as an example: 1, the margin ratio is 5% and the leverage is 20 times. The total capital is $50,000 to buy 10 lot of refined copper, the opening margin of each lot is $4,750, and the occupation margin of * * is $47,500, with a position ratio of 90%. Buy 4 lots of refined copper, the margin ratio is 5%, the position ratio is 38%, and you still have 3 1000 dollars of unoccupied funds, which can resist 2480 points. 2. The margin ratio is 65,438+05%, the leverage is 6.6 times, and the total capital is 50,000 USD. The first-hand contract value of American National Railway Passenger Transport Company is 25,000 pounds X3.06 (current price) = 76,500 pounds, and the first-hand deposit for opening positions is 76,500 pounds15% =165,438 dollars. Buy 4 lots of refined copper, the margin ratio is 15%, the opening margin is 1 1475 USD, and the position ratio is 9 1.8%. Only $4 100 does not occupy funds and can only resist 328 points. 20 times the lever can resist 2480 points, and it is clear who has less risk. Conclusion: 1 Under the same conditions, the greater the leverage, the smaller the risk. 2. Risk is not directly related to leverage, but leverage only reduces the size of your margin. The risk is related to the proportion of your position. The heavier the position, the higher the risk.
Question 8: Explain why the basic analysis of macroeconomic development is based on financial leverage. The general angle is 1. Analyze the general characteristics of the industry, the sensitivity of sales to the economic cycle, the operating leverage and the size of financial leverage. 2. Market structure, mainly the degree of competition. 3. Industry life cycle, start-up, expansion, stability or decline. 4. The company's products and markets, including product awareness and market share, as well as the geographical location of the market. 5. The management ability of the company. In fact, the short-term fluctuations of stocks within 20% of the two cities are not big, and the short-term changes are all stocks with high P/E ratio, which gives people more imagination.
Question 9: From the perspective of China's economic leverage ratio, what actions will the central bank take in the future? In the face of the current economic situation, the central bank's monetary policy needs to continue to be loose. In order to prevent macro leverage, the one-year deposit interest rate should be lowered to 1.00- 1.25%, and the actual deposit reserve ratio should be lowered from the current 13.5% to about 10%. We expect another rate cut and another RRR cut this year.
At the same time, China is also facing a high leverage ratio. A large amount of funds are deposited in inefficient sectors with overcapacity, and monetary policy is not well transmitted to the real economy. We believe that the central bank needs to use new monetary policy tools, adopt a curve and directional quantitative easing method, activate the credit market, revitalize the existing funds, and make them flow to the departments that the real economy really needs. For example, the targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio, mortgage refinancing to commercial banks+collateral expansion, capital injection to policy banks+targeted lending, refinancing to the four major asset management companies+acquisition of non-performing assets of banks have effectively reduced the financing cost of the real economy, and the willingness of banks to lend to key areas and weak links of the national economy, the most important of which is to deal with non-performing loans of banks, agriculture, rural areas and small and micro enterprises by refinancing to the four major asset management companies. At the same time, with strong reforms, we should break the old and establish the new, block the three black holes of funds, give play to the role of the market in allocating resources, and accelerate the replacement of the old economy by the new economy.
Question 10: What is the leverage ratio of the whole society? In 2005, the leverage ratio of the whole society was 249%. Li Yang said that from a global perspective, China's debt level is not high. China's debt problem has always been a high-frequency topic of concern to all parties, and it is also a very concerned aspect of overseas rating agencies. Recently, the latest research disclosed by the National Finance and Development Laboratory shows that by the end of 20 15, China's total debt was 168.48 trillion yuan, and the leverage ratio of the whole society was 249%, of which the debt ratio of the residential sector was about 40%, the debt ratio of the financial sector was about 2 1%, and the debt ratio of the * * sector was about 40%.
Li Yang, member of the China Academy of Social Sciences and chairman of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, believes that such debt level is not too high in the world, and China's debt is controllable.
The data shows that by the end of 20 15, the central * * * debt 10.66 trillion yuan and local * * * debt 16 trillion yuan were included in the budget management, totaling 26.66 trillion yuan, accounting for about 39.4% of GDP. Even with the debt of local financing platforms, the debt level of * * * will reach 56.8%, which is still lower than the warning line of 60% in the EU. Meanwhile, this figure is 200% in Japan, 120% in the United States, 120% in France, 80% in Germany and 100% in Brazil.
Nevertheless, according to economist Song Qinghui, the total social leverage ratio of 249% in 20 15 years is still not low. If we don't pay attention to the high leverage ratio of China's real economy and the whole society, it will bring great risks. Reducing the leverage ratio of the whole society is to reduce the risk of the whole economy and is also the premise of stable economic development.
Bai, a macroeconomic researcher of China Investment Consulting, told the Securities Daily reporter that if the leverage ratio is high and the debt burden of enterprises is heavy, a large part of the cash flow of enterprises will be used to repay the principal and interest, while the funds used to maintain normal production and operation will be reduced, which is not conducive to the release of enterprise vitality and economic growth. The high leverage ratio of the whole society increases the risks in economic operation. Once enterprise bankruptcy breaks out on a large scale, it will impact the stability of the banking system and even induce a financial crisis.
In an interview with Securities Daily, Song Qinghui said that under the complicated background of the world economic situation, China urgently needs to speed up the pace of clearing risks in financial, real estate, steel and other industries and enhance its ability to resist risks. These highly leveraged industries must take the lead in clearing up, otherwise "getting rid of the virtual reality" is empty talk.
How to deleverage?
"Overall, for enterprises with a debt ratio of more than 80%, it is necessary to form a joint force through a multi-pronged approach, that is, by reducing losses, increasing revenues and reducing expenditures, properly disposing of inefficient assets, reducing financial leverage in a high proportion, avoiding business risks, and controlling the asset-liability ratio within a reasonable range." Song Qinghui said.
Bai believes that for some industries with overcapacity, the leverage ratio can be reduced in the following ways. The first is to repay debts and reduce debts by selling assets. Secondly, reduce leverage by increasing capital through listing or other means; Finally, debt-to-equity swap, through the establishment of asset management companies to buy non-performing assets of banks, will transform the relationship between creditor's rights and debts into the relationship between holding and controlled, so as to achieve the purpose of reducing leverage.