1. As the number of banks decreases, the risk in liquidity in the banking system increases.
The financial crisis first affected major banks in Russia, and several major banks were acquired by state-owned banks. September 16, 2008 is called the darkest day in Russian financial market. The stocks of major banks and some large companies in Russia lost nearly 1/3 of their market value in one day.
By the end of 2008, Russian banks and enterprises had to repay the principal and interest of foreign loans of 40 billion US dollars. By the end of 2009, the principal that must be repaid is $295 billion and the interest is $39 billion. At present, there is a serious shortage of funds in the international financial market, and it is difficult for Russian banks and enterprises to obtain foreign loans. At the same time, they are facing enormous repayment pressure, and the risk in liquidity in the banking system is increasing.
2. Inflation is obvious, and the ruble continues to depreciate.
According to the Russian News Network, the Russian government revised its forecast of Russian inflation rate in 2008 from 1 1.8% to 13.5%.
The decline in foreign exchange reserves led to the continuous depreciation of the ruble. For a long time, the Russian central bank has adopted a managed floating exchange rate system to reduce the price of imported consumer goods and curb inflation with the steady appreciation of the ruble. From the end of 1998 Russian financial crisis to the beginning of August 2008, the ruble appreciated 143% against the US dollar. According to the data provided by the Russian Central Bank, the nominal exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar fell by 4. 1% in June, and the real exchange rate fell by 45,438+0%. From June 5438+065438+1October 13, the Russian ruble showed an accelerated depreciation trend, and the exchange rate against the US dollar hit a two-and-a-half-year low. In just three days, the official quotation dropped from 1 USD to 26.92 rubles to 27.67 rubles, while some foreign exchange outlets sold for more than 28 rubles. This may exceed 1 USD to 30 rubles before the end of the year.
3. The stock market plummeted, and assets shrank sharply.
On September 30, 2008, the Russian stock market plunged immediately after the opening. Regulators asked the two stock exchanges to suspend trading for two hours urgently to prevent the stock market from falling further. Only repurchase and counter trading are allowed to continue. However, the MICEX (Russian Interbank Currency Exchange) stock index still fell by 6.9% throughout the day, among which the shares of Gazprom, Lukoil and Russian Savings Bank all fell by more than 7%.
At the end of 2007, the market value of Russian stock market was as high as 32.3 trillion rubles, reaching the GDP scale for the first time in history (33 trillion rubles), but by the end of 2008, 1 13, only 10 trillion rubles remained. PTC's share price index dropped from 2,500 points in May-June 2008 to the lowest of nearly 500 points in June, 65,438. The stock index reached its lowest point in 2005, and the decline has exceeded 1998 during the financial crisis.
4. Capital outflow, and foreign banks reduce their business in Russia.
In addition, Russia's foreign exchange reserves have also shrunk dramatically. From August to June of 2008, foreign exchange reserves decreased from 598 billion US dollars to 484.6 billion US dollars, and it is estimated that foreign exchange reserves may decrease to 400 billion US dollars by the end of the year. Capital flight has made the Russian economy worse. If the outflow continues, the ruble may depreciate by 10% ~ 15%. Russia's "News" 165438+ 10/2 pointed out that the stock market crash was mainly the result of a large amount of capital fleeing from Russia. Russian capital flight has never been so rapid: in September, pure capital flight was $24.6 billion, reaching an unprecedented $50 billion in 5438+ 10.
5. Investment decreased and economic growth slowed down.
Due to the international financial crisis and the increase in bank borrowing costs, some Russian companies will reduce their investment plans for 2009-2010. In February 2008, Russian Copper Company planned to invest 640 million US dollars to build its subsidiary, Russian Nickel Company, with an estimated production capacity of at least 654.38+0000 tons of nickel and 654.38+000 tons of cobalt. However, the company recently said that it would temporarily suspend its nickel-zinc project. Due to the shortage of funds, the electric power development plan with a total investment of nearly 500 billion US dollars and the national plan to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises have also run aground.
The development of loan business of many big banks in Russia depends on the funds of foreign investors to a great extent. Under the pressure of the financial crisis, foreign investors reduced their loans to Russian banks and companies, and increased their borrowing costs. The growth rate of Russian loans in 2008 will slow down compared with the previous year. In 2007, the loan amount of large Russian banks increased by more than 50%, and the increase rate in 2008 was 20% ~ 30%. It is impossible for the loan growth to slow down without affecting the extent of economic growth. Affected by the global financial crisis, Russia's GDP growth rate is expected to slow down to 7% in 2008 and 5% ~ 6% in 2009.
6. Erosion of the real economy, resulting in a decline in output.
The global financial crisis has plunged the world economy into recession, and the demand of oil importing countries has been shrinking, which has led to a sharp drop in oil prices and huge economic losses for major oil exporting countries. According to the Russian newspaper Kommersant, major oil and gas companies in Russia admit that they are facing severe problems brought about by the financial crisis and hope that the Russian government will help them. On September 24, 2008, the heads of Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft and THK- BP jointly sent a letter to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, requesting the Russian government to provide loans to repay loans from western banks. These oil and gas companies also asked Putin to instruct the Russian Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank to establish a mechanism to inject capital into strategic industries. 70% of Russia's oil production and 9 1% of its natural gas production come from these four companies, so they play an important role in the Russian economy.
Russia's metallurgical industry and automobile manufacturing industry have also been seriously affected. Magney Togorsk Iron and Steel Company, one of the largest Russian iron and steel companies, announced a production reduction of 15%. Due to the declining demand for semi-finished steel products, Lippetsk Steel Company reduced its exports to Europe and America. The investment plan of Russian steel pipe company in 2009 may be reduced by more than half. Russian automakers have reduced their production plans for 2008. Gorky Automobile Factory suspended some production lines from June 6th, 2008 to October 6th, 2008/KLOC-0 to meet the market demand. Moreover, in order to reduce the debt, the Russian Gorky Automobile Factory reduced production by 2,000 vehicles in June+10 in 5438. Then, the Russian Kama Automobile Factory, which has been producing at full capacity for many years, also announced the reduction of production and launched a new risk prevention production plan, shortening the six-day work week to four days.
Russian real estate developers say they are either going to freeze all new projects in the preparatory stage or stop buying land. Russia also stopped its plan to expand investment in cement production because of the decline in sales of building materials caused by the cooling of the construction industry.
7. The increase of unemployment has affected people's lives.
The financial crisis has penetrated into the daily life of the Russian people. In September 2008, the unemployment rate in Russia reached 5.3%, and the number of unemployed people was 4.03 million, 33,000 more than that in August. Ural Siberian Bank in Moscow, Russia plans to lay off employees 1/5. A large real estate company in St. Petersburg laid off 400 people in one day.
For ordinary Russians, the biggest threat brought by the financial crisis is rising prices. Some banks have begun to restrict residents from withdrawing savings deposits, or charge fees when withdrawing money. According to the Russian Youth Pravda, car rental companies feel that the demand for commercial vehicles has obviously decreased. Even the richest customers who used to choose only VIP cars have now changed to mid-range Nissan cars, while those who used to take mid-range cars have also changed to low-cost cars.
(B) Russia's response measures
2008120 October, 165438+ delivered a report at the 10th Congress of the United Russia Party, in which Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced the Russian government's new plans to deal with the crisis in the fields of social security, finance, military industry, agriculture, energy and taxation. The main contents of the plan include: raising unemployment benefits and social pension standards; Inject 75 billion rubles (1 US$ 27.5 rubles) into foreign economic banks to support financial markets; Allow enterprises to issue infrastructure construction bonds under the guarantee of the government or foreign economic banks; In 2008-2009, more than 50 billion rubles were allocated to prevent the bankruptcy of military enterprises; Subsidize agricultural investment projects with a loan interest rate of 3.5 billion rubles; Inject 4 billion rubles into the Russian National Agricultural Leasing Company; Increase the allocation for small and medium-sized enterprises through the federal budget and the foreign economic banking system; Reduce natural resource exploitation tax, profit tax and export tariff for products in the fuel and energy industries. Putin said that Russia will strive to "turn the crisis into an opportunity to improve economic efficiency." He said that the main goal of the Russian government at present is to "improve people's lives", but it will not give up or delay the implementation of its strategic plan. Since the global financial turmoil, the Russian government has formulated a number of rescue plans involving the financial industry and the real economy in an effort to stabilize market confidence.
1. Establish a financial market development committee to stabilize the financial market.
10 On June 20th, Medvedev signed a presidential decree announcing the establishment of a financial market development committee chaired by First Deputy Prime Minister shuvalov. This advisory body is directly subordinate to the President, and its main task is to study financial market issues and submit policy suggestions to the President on safeguarding the interests of investors and coping with financial market crises in order to cope with the current international financial crisis. Vladimir Milovidov, director of the financial market agency of the Russian Federation, was appointed secretary of the board of directors.
According to the Russian newspaper 10 10/2 1 day, Premier Putin announced Russia's supplementary plan to deal with the global financial crisis when meeting with some foreign investors on the 20th. This supplementary plan includes allocating 200 billion rubles from the 2008 federal budget to state-owned savings insurance companies to ensure the stable operation of domestic banks; It was originally planned to allocate 654.38+075 billion rubles from the budget revenue in 2009, which will be advanced to 2008 to support China's financial system and real economy. According to Russia's point of view, Russia spent 6 trillion rubles (about 220 billion US dollars) to solve the financial crisis, which is equivalent to 13.9% of Russia's GDP.
2. Introduce the bill of "Supplementary Measures to Support the Financial System" to save banks.
In order to stabilize the financial market, the Federal Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation approved a series of draft laws previously passed by the State Duma to support the stability of the national financial system on June 65438+10/October 65438+March 2008. The Act stipulates that before the end of 2009, the Russian Foreign Economic Bank can provide loans with a total amount of not more than 50 billion US dollars to Russian financial institutions for repayment of loans borrowed by Russian financial institutions before September 25, 2008. The bill also stipulates that the Russian central bank will provide guarantees for lending institutions and will increase the full insurance compensation for Russian citizens' bank deposits. The Russian central bank also promised that depositors can collect their own deposits no matter what happens to banks.
Before the promulgation of the bill "Supplementary Measures to Support the Financial System", the Russian Central Bank injected capital into commercial banks through open market business. From September of 16 to September of 13 10, * * carried out 38 treasury bond repurchases with an investment of 2,877.347 billion rubles (1 1000 billion US dollars). The Ministry of Finance deposits the budget surplus into commercial banks as short-term deposits, and commercial banks obtain deposits through auction. From September 16 to September 13 10, the Ministry of Finance entrusted the central bank * * * to conduct 9 effective auctions, and the banking system * * * obtained short-term deposits of 1 trillion rubles (US$ 38.5 billion) from the Ministry of Finance with a term of 5-90 days. In addition, on September 22nd, Russian Savings Bank, Russian Foreign Trade Bank and Natural Gas Industrial Bank obtained loans of10.5 trillion rubles (US$ 57.7 billion) from the Ministry of Finance through a 90-day special auction.
At present, 122 large and medium-sized banks have received government capital injection, but there are 1 126 banks in Russia, and most small banks cannot get government assistance. In response, the government revised the Natural Person Deposit Insurance Law. According to the original law, when a bank goes bankrupt, the maximum amount of full compensation for deposits is 200,000 rubles (US$ 7,565), and 90% for deposits ranging from 200,000 to 700,000 rubles (US$ 26,457). After revision, the upper limit of full compensation rose to 700,000 rubles. This will help stabilize residents' deposits in small banks, and 98% depositors can get full compensation. The government also plans to further improve the law, so that deposit insurance companies have the right to implement rescue at the beginning of the banking crisis, without waiting until the bank goes bankrupt. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will monitor the problematic bank credit process.
3. Save the stock market
On September 6, 2008, affected by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the Russian stock index fell 1 1%, and the stock market was suspended. 10 year 10. On 8 October, the General Directorate of Financial Markets of Russia introduced new price restrictions: the stock index rose or fell by 5%, and the stock market was suspended for at least 1 hour. The stock index rises and falls 10%, and the stock market is closed at least 1 day; Individual stock prices rise and fall 10%, stop 1 hour, rise and fall by 20%, stop 1 day. 2008-00-25 Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Kudrin said that Russia will use its petrodollar reserves to save the stock market, and the government will take out 654.38+075 billion rubles from the state welfare fund to buy the company's shares. The government of the Russian Federation set up a national welfare fund a few years ago. The purpose of setting up this fund is to deal with the impact of falling crude oil prices on the Russian economy. The government plans to spend 250 billion rubles in 2008, 250 billion rubles in 2009, and 654.38+05 billion rubles from the national welfare fund, totaling about 265.438+00 billion dollars, to buy back outstanding assets of listed companies.
4. Support the real economy industry
While protecting the banking system, Russia has also turned its attention to the real economy. In September 2008, the tariff on petroleum products was reduced from $495 to $372 per ton, and by the end of the year, the tax burden of energy enterprises will be reduced by nearly $6 billion. The government also promised to allocate $9 billion to Gazprom, Rosneft, Lukoil and TNK to repay foreign debts to ensure the safety of economic arteries. The Russian government has also increased its support for small and medium-sized enterprises and agriculture, increasing the amount of the credit plan for small enterprises from $34 1 billion to $1654.38+billion.
The Russian government also intends to support the real estate industry and use state funds to buy a number of houses from the market for the implementation of the social welfare housing plan. In order to ensure food supply and prevent speculation, an anti-crisis working group in the agricultural field led by Russian Minister of Agriculture Gordeyev was established.
5. Set up the Export Contract Insurance Bureau under the Foreign Economic Bank to help export enterprises develop foreign trade.
On June 27th, 2008, the Russian government approved in principle the newly formulated Russian foreign trade strategy before 2020. Before 2020, the state's support for foreign trade activities will focus on the trade with countries with the same Eurasian economy, followed by the trade with neighboring countries such as Iran, India, China, Afghanistan and Mongolia. In terms of export policy, the government will first support large state-owned companies to consolidate their position in the international market, especially large export enterprises such as natural gas industry company, United Aviation Manufacturing Company and United Shipbuilding Company, and will also support machinery manufacturing enterprises. In 2009, Russia will set up an export contract insurance bureau under the Foreign Economic Bank to help Russian exporters by means of national insurance, because they have less and less opportunities to obtain loans from foreign banks.
6. Initiate the establishment of a new international order to jointly cope with the financial turmoil.
After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the world needs to re-establish a new and powerful international supervision system and reform the existing system, which requires a new game and brewing among the world's major economies, and emerging market countries including China, Russian and Indian have become decisive new forces. During the Eurasian Summit, China and India joined the European Union in calling for the establishment of a new international order. It is necessary for all countries to coordinate their positions, seek to enhance the right to speak internationally, safeguard the interests of emerging market countries, and change the status of the dollar dominating the world.
Since the global financial crisis, China and Russia have initiated substantial mutually beneficial cooperation between countries for the first time. During his visit to Russia, Premier Wen Jiabao signed a long-term oil supply agreement with the Russian government, and China will provide 20-25 billion US dollars of export support loans to Russian enterprises in exchange for obtaining 300 million tons of Russian oil supply agreement in the next 20 years. This not only helps Russian energy enterprises to obtain timely financing when liquidity is tight and oil prices plummet, but also provides China with a more stable long-term oil supply. Prior to this, Russia had planned to replace petrodollars with petroleum rubles, and China and Russia will also expand the agreement on the settlement of rubles and RMB in bilateral trade to reduce the trade cost between the two countries. The use of RMB and ruble in trade settlement has long existed in Sino-Russian border trade. In 2007, the People's Bank of China and the Russian Central Bank signed a specific agreement on the use of RMB and ruble in border trade settlement. According to the agreement, the settlement scope has expanded from the original Heihe and Amur border areas to the Sino-Russian border areas, and from trade to tourism and related services. At present, there is no obstacle for the trade between the two countries to be settled in local currency, and the central banks of the two countries have completed the exchange of transit accounts.
(3) Some ideas
1. The main reason why the global financial crisis spread to Russia
Against the background of economic globalization, it is not surprising that the financial crisis has had such a great impact on Russia. On the one hand, although Russia has not yet joined the World Trade Organization, its economy has been deeply integrated with the world economy. Therefore, the fluctuation of the world market will cause the reaction of the Russian market. The dependence of Russian market on foreign investment has reached 50% ~ 70%. Recently, the panic in the world financial market spread to Russia, and foreign investors withdrew their funds from the Russian securities market and sold Russian energy stocks and banking stocks, which led to the turmoil in the Russian financial market.
On the other hand, the Russian economy still relies heavily on the export of raw materials, especially energy. It is natural that the financial crisis and oil price fluctuation have a great influence on Russian economy. This is also the reason why the Russian government decided to help energy enterprises out of the predicament.
Russia will face a long test.
It is predicted that this crisis may last until the end of 2009 or even the beginning of 20 10. Therefore, Russia will face a long-term test. In order to enhance people's confidence in the market, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said at the meeting of the Presidium of the Committee on Foreign Investment on the 20th that the Russian economy was fully prepared for the long-term turmoil in the world market. He also said that the decline in world oil prices will not bring disastrous consequences to Russia, and the decline in oil prices will be offset by the reserve funds accumulated by Russia in recent years.
Regarding the impact of the world financial situation on Russia, most Russian scholars think it is difficult to make an accurate prediction. One view is that Russia has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves, which is enough to save the decline of Russian financial market; Another view is that if the financial crisis touches the real economy of the United States, the economic downturn may spread from the United States to other countries, including Russia.
The financial crisis will not shake the stability of the Russian economy.
In 2008, Russia formulated an ambitious social and economic development strategy and concept for 2020. Its goal is to accelerate economic development, improve people's living standards, develop high-tech fields, improve labor productivity and economic benefits, and completely get rid of the development model that is highly dependent on raw materials and energy exports and turn to an innovative development model. However, the serious consequences caused by the financial crisis and the sharp drop in international energy prices will inevitably have a serious impact on this strategic shift. Moreover, with the further spread of the crisis, the consequences of the crisis will be more serious. In May 2008, Russia successfully completed the transfer of power, Medvedev and Putin served as president and prime minister respectively, and the "Mapp Group" was officially launched. Under the new power system, the functions of the government have been strengthened, and the coordination between the president and the prime minister has been strengthened. Medvedev made it clear that he would continue Putin's line. At present, "Mapp" cooperates sincerely, and the strength and timeliness of anti-crisis measures exceed public expectations. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev believes that the world financial crisis has not completely touched Russia, but the intensification of the financial crisis can help Russia build a more effective economy and accelerate the important reform process in the social and judicial fields. 654381October 23rd, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said through his blog that Russia should seize the opportunity to develop its economy while resisting the financial crisis. He said that the Russian government will take measures to supplement funds to make domestic enterprises more competitive and domestic financial institutions more efficient; Russian enterprises should reduce production costs and introduce advanced technology and management mode. He also said that Russia should pass laws before the end of 2008 to establish a major financial center in the world. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has submitted to the government a plan to establish a regional financial center in Russia. If this plan is successfully implemented, in 20 12 years, Russia will rank among the top financial centers in the world in terms of securities trading, stock and bond circulation. 2008165438+1October 20th, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin delivered a speech at the annual meeting of the ruling United Russia Party, saying that the Russian government would do its utmost to prevent Russia from falling into financial collapse again. He said that Russia's financial reserves from oil and natural gas can be used to prevent rapid inflation and reduce the depreciation of the Russian ruble. Putin also promised to implement a package of tax cuts to stimulate the economy.
According to the World Economic Outlook report recently released by the International Monetary Fund, the financial crisis will lead to a slowdown in Russian economic growth. In 2008, the Russian economy is expected to grow by 7%, which is lower than the 7.7% estimated by the International Monetary Fund in July. Russia's economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2009, far below the previous forecast of 7.3%.
We believe that although Russia's economic growth prospects may be adversely affected by the financial crisis, the financial crisis will not shake the stability of the Russian economy.