The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic has caused serious damage to the domestic real economy and small and medium-sized enterprises, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the economic situation has entered a trough. The rapid spread of the global epidemic has caused a great impact on the global economy. At the same time, the global financial market has experienced a great degree of turmoil. At present, the epidemic situation is basically stable, and the financial market still faces certain challenges. Risks and challenges that the world financial stability may face after the epidemic include:
First, large-scale government assistance and economic stimulus measures will lead to a sharp increase in government deficits and government debts, and a serious decline in financial stability. In the case of economic recovery and weak fiscal revenue growth, the excessive growth of government deficit and debt will form the risk of government debt default and government credit crisis, and then threaten the financial stability of the country and even the world.
Second, large-scale credit guarantee by the government, large-scale refinancing by the central bank, large-scale lending by commercial banks and large-scale debt issuance by enterprises will further expand the scale of corporate debt and further improve the leverage level. This will further increase the debt burden of enterprises and affect the sustained and healthy development of enterprises.
Third, the central bank bought a large number of government bonds and corporate bonds, re-loaned and re-discounted a large number, forming a large-scale base currency, thus forming a huge inflationary potential pressure.
Fourth, the government provides large-scale credit guarantee, and banks relax the requirements for credit risk review, improve the loan risk tolerance and reduce the loan interest rate, which will greatly increase the non-performing loans and risk losses of banks and greatly reduce profits.
Fifth, the requirements of bank capital supervision standards formulated after the financial crisis in 2008 on loss absorption capacity have not been fully implemented, some standards have been relaxed, some standards have been postponed, and some standards are still in a transitional period.
Sixth, in order to fight and prevent the spread of the epidemic, countries have generally implemented strict closed isolation measures, which have seriously damaged the original industrial chain, supply chain, trade chain, capital chain, debt chain and credit chain, and are facing the challenge of re-establishing and dredging after the epidemic.
On August 30th, the Jingshan Report 2020, sponsored by China Financial Forty Forum (CF40) and led by CF40 senior researcher Xiao Gang, was officially released. Wang xin, invited member of CF40 and director of the Research Bureau of the Central Bank, said at the press conference that China's financial risks have gradually shifted from rapid accumulation in previous years to slow release at a high level, but financial risks are showing some new characteristics and evolution trends. It is necessary to balance the relationship between promoting reform, strengthening supervision, preventing moral hazard and maintaining stable economic operation, and maintain financial stability in accelerating financial reform and opening up.
In 2020, the central bank will continue to deepen financial reform and opening up. Deepen the reform of financial markets and financial institutions. Actively develop the bond market and continue to promote the interconnection of infrastructure in the bond market. Strengthen the overall supervision and construction planning of financial infrastructure. Deepen the reform of small and medium-sized banks and rural credit cooperatives, and further improve the governance structure of policy banks. Actively and steadily promote the internationalization of RMB. We will further promote the reform of the foreign exchange management system and support the reform of foreign exchange management in the Pilot Free Trade Zone and the Free Trade Port. Improve the "macro-prudential+micro-regulatory" two-in-one management framework for cross-border capital flows. However, at the same time, we should also guard against financial risks. Key areas include: risks of some small and medium-sized financial institutions, local government debt risks, real estate market risks and the possibility of overlapping domestic and foreign financial risks.
First, we should support weak economic sectors such as agriculture, rural areas, small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, prevent the rise of non-performing assets of financial institutions, and further increase the vulnerability of small and medium-sized banks. Second, it is necessary to gradually cope with risks and release pressure, but also to prevent the risks of coping with risks, increase the downward pressure on the economy, and trigger regional and even systemic risks. Third, it is necessary to expand the two-way opening of the financial industry, improve quality and efficiency through competition, and guard against risks caused by insufficient capacity and competitiveness. Fourth, we should not only promote the internationalization of RMB, reduce currency mismatch and dependence on the US dollar system, but also coordinate the opening of capital account and the improvement of RMB exchange rate mechanism. Fifth, we should not only give full play to the role of financial technology in promoting innovation and serving the real economy, but also prevent it from over-innovating and amplifying financial risks.
In view of the new economic changes brought about by the COVID-19 epidemic, commercial banks should explore innovative and pragmatic development paths. First, solidly carry out the project to improve the financial service capabilities of SMEs. Implement a separate plan for the scale of inclusive loans to ensure the rapid growth of loans. Improve the performance appraisal mechanism and increase the weight of inclusive performance appraisal. Grasp the financing policy to ensure that qualified SMEs borrow as much as possible, slow down loans as much as possible, and reduce loans as much as possible. The second is to increase the innovative application of financial technology products. Due to the large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, we should speed up the integration of big data, blockchain, artificial intelligence, cloud computing and other financial technologies with inclusive finance, so as to realize the intelligent marketing, risk identification and management evaluation of customers. Vigorously develop digital supply chain finance, reduce enterprise financing risk and performance risk, and improve work efficiency. The third is to collect reports and seek the support and cooperation of the government and all sectors of society. With the help of the government, associations, chambers of commerce and large enterprises, we can widely understand the financing needs of customers, identify potential customers, reduce financing risks and market high-quality customers.
From "strictly guard against death" to "active management" Scientific prevention and control is the key to effectively deal with the epidemic situation in COVID-19. Banking itself is a high-risk industry. Death prevention is not the best policy, but business risk is king. The most injured and helpless groups in this epidemic are small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. We should tolerate customers who are "contributing", "potential" and "defective", and we should not be afraid of lending, not lending, not pressing for lending, and not hesitating to lend. However, the non-performing loan ratio is not as low as possible, so we must balance the relationship among risk, business and benefit. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the risk assessment and management mechanism should be reshaped.
From "offline-oriented" to "up and down integration". The first is "marketing+technology". The primary task of digital transformation of banks is how to accelerate the "migration" of existing customers to the online, promote the online acquisition of customers, products and services, and effectively reduce the management cost per household. The second is "management+technology". This epidemic shows that without the support of advanced technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence and cloud computing, scientific prevention and control is empty talk. For banks, the three major goals of digital transformation are to reduce operating costs, improve management efficiency and enhance customer experience.
From "self-development" to "ecological construction" Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, some enterprises and even leading enterprises in the industry were very healthy, but their development ecology was destroyed by the epidemic, which led to their bankruptcy. Similarly, after the bank develops to a certain stage, it should not only rely on the mechanism material to promote development, but also build the development ecology with the emotional pattern. The first is to build a social ecology. After the COVID-19 epidemic, banks should not blindly pursue self-development, but actively participate in the construction of social governance system and credit environment system with altruistic spirit and feelings. The second is to build a customer ecosystem. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, banks should reserve customers as strategic materials that determine life and death, and increase support for customers, local economies and small and micro enterprises affected by the epidemic to help them tide over the difficulties.