The financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis is testing the global economy and the development of China's PE. Industry insiders said at the press conference of the "PE Beijing Forum" held recently that China's PE market still has broad prospects for development. When the international market is not good, it may be the time for my country's PE to develop rapidly. We must seize the opportunity amid financial turmoil. Chance.
Development is in the ascendant
Xiong Yan, vice president and secretary-general of Beijing PE Association and president of Beijing Equity Exchange, pointed out that in recent years, China’s economy has maintained steady growth, and the high growth of the Chinese market has attracted A large number of foreign equity investment funds have invested in China, and China has become the country with the fastest growth rate of equity investment funds in the world. At the same time, with the growth of China's private capital and the continuous improvement of the policy and regulatory environment, RMB equity investment funds have also flourished.
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Zhao Linghuan, vice president of the Beijing PE Association and president of Hony Capital, pointed out that the global Investors have shown great interest in China, which is becoming more and more attractive, and a lot of funds have entered China in the form of private equity. The momentum of PE development in China is in the ascendant, but the foundation is still very poor. China has a large demand for private equity investment. More and more entrepreneurs are aware of the importance of PE, especially when the market is not good, the demand for PE is even greater. Strong; there are also many people in China who are very interested in the PE industry, but have no experience in the entire industry. The development of the PE industry has great potential.
Seizing opportunities in crises
Xiong Yan pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the global financial crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis broke out on Wall Street and quickly spread to Europe and even the world. , the global financial industry suffered an unprecedented blow. Although China's financial industry has not been directly impacted like the United States, as global economic integration becomes increasingly in-depth, China will inevitably encounter unprecedented tests. How to successfully survive this financial crisis has become a serious topic that cannot be avoided in front of every PE institution. How to withstand the test and seize the opportunity to develop in the current crisis is a topic that the Chinese PE industry must think deeply about and face.
The indirect impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis on China’s venture capital market has already emerged. A previous report released by EZCapital, a specialized venture capital research institution, showed that in September, the Chinese market disclosed that three investment companies had raised funds to establish new RMB funds. , involving an amount of 3.9 billion yuan. Compared with the capital raising situation in August, the number of funds raised and the amount of capital showed a rapid downward trend in September, approaching the lowest level in January this year; and no funds with foreign investment background were established this month.
Tian Suning, vice president of Beijing PE Association and chairman of China Broadband Industry Fund, pointed out that in the future, especially when the economy encounters challenges, there will be more and more industry integrations, and PE must assume the responsibility of integrating the industry value chain. effect. Although the international economic situation is very uncertain, China will not be greatly affected in the future. Others' dangers happen to be our opportunities, and we must seize them. PE should work with enterprises to participate in equity acquisitions overseas and introduce Western core technologies and knowledge systems to further accelerate industrial upgrading.
Zhao Linghuan pointed out that the financial crisis caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, but since China is still in the early stages of internationalization, the impact will be relatively small, and China's conditions are better than other countries. If there are many, you must seize the opportunity and take the initiative. Although it has become more difficult for PE to finance and exit domestically, it may be a good opportunity for investment. “When the economy goes down, corporate pricing may be more reasonable, and opportunities for intervention will appear; and when the market is overheated, due to The price is higher but it is not easy to enter. "Many PEs may benefit from this market correction and look at the development of the market calmly.
Promote the development of PE
Tian Suning suggested that we should seize the opportunity to promote reform and promote the development of PE. “Promote the development of PE through policies and regulations as soon as possible. Reform is the key to external difficulties. Good time." Promote insurance, social security, and enterprise annuities to become qualified limited partners.
Xiong Yan pointed out that in order to establish an industry self-regulation mechanism within equity investment funds, strengthen communication between industry insiders and regulatory agencies, improve the quality of practitioners, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of industry practitioners, and strengthen exchanges between domestic and foreign PE practitioners In order to further promote the development of China's equity investment industry, in June 2008, the Beijing Equity Investment Fund Association was formally established.
In response to the double taxation issue that is a common concern in the industry, Beijing will introduce policies to avoid double taxation on PE and encourage and support the development of PE. Ren Xuedan, director of the Beijing Municipal Finance Office, said that the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission and the Finance Office, together with relevant departments, are actively studying policies to promote the development of equity investment funds. The policy has been prepared to be submitted to the municipal government and there should be no major changes.
In order to promote the development of China’s PE industry and build an active and fruitful dialogue platform for domestic and foreign PE institutions, the Beijing Municipal Finance Office, China Equity Investment Fund Association (preparatory), Beijing Equity Investment Fund The "PE Beijing Forum" hosted by the association and others will be held from November 9th to 11th.
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Experts: More measures will be taken to stabilize the capital market. “We must adopt flexible and prudent macroeconomic policies, focus on expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, and maintain economic stability and financial stability and capital market stability.” In this regard, expert analysis pointed out that under the current international economic and financial situation, in order to maintain stable economic growth, macroeconomic control policies will be more flexible in the future, and fiscal and monetary policies will be further relaxed in the next stage. < /p>
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For The communiqué of the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed "adopting flexible and prudent macroeconomic policies". Experts believe that due to the current intensification of turmoil in the international financial market, the central government will further relax its monetary and fiscal policies.
Zhou Zhou, deputy general manager of Southwest Securities R&D Center, said that "flexibility and prudence" is a flexible response method made by the central government based on changes in the international economic situation and assessment of the situation, and in response to the deterioration of the current international financial situation. According to the recent reduction of the central bank's "two interest rates" and the cancellation of the interest tax policy by the finance and taxation departments, it shows that the phased tasks of the previous stage of tightening policies have been completed. In the next stage, monetary and fiscal policies will be further relaxed based on changes in the international and domestic economic situation.
Huang Xuejun, a strategy analyst at Everbright Securities, agrees. His analysis pointed out that in the context of the deteriorating global financial situation, domestic macroeconomic policies have a tendency to cooperate with international policies. Since the U.S. financial crisis is likely to worsen further, domestic macroeconomic policies will require further relaxation in the next step.
In Huang Xuejun’s view, there are two main characteristics in grasping the macro policy trend in the next stage from the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee: First, the word “stability” takes the lead, and it is proposed to “maintain economic stability, financial stability, "Capital market is stable", so the macro policy in the next stage will change from tight to steady; second, it reflects the flexibility and forward-lookingness of the macro policy in the next stage. As the current international financial crisis worsens, my country's macroeconomic policies will change accordingly as the crisis situation develops.
Policies to stimulate domestic demand may be introduced one after another
The Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to "focus on expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand." In this regard, experts said that this is a correct decision. He also pointed out that under the current situation where external demand is likely to slow down, there is more reason to expand domestic demand. In the next stage, the government may introduce a series of policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand.
“As the financial crisis moves to the real economy, the consumer market in the United States, including Europe, may shrink, which will greatly affect our country’s exports.” Zhou Zhou said, therefore, it is necessary for our country to take measures to promote domestic demand and increase consumption. Its status in economic development has been further improved. In his view, if my country wants to promote domestic demand, an important direction is to stimulate the rural consumer market. Therefore, the government may introduce a series of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate rural consumption.
Huang Xuejun also said that to expand domestic demand and stimulate consumption, an important direction is to expand the rural consumer market. In his view, my country’s consumption has two gradients, one is the urban-rural gradient, and the other is the eastern and central-western gradient. From the perspective of expanding domestic demand, the consumption potential in rural areas is greater than that in cities, and the potential in the central and western regions is greater than that in the east. Therefore, to expand domestic demand, rural and central and western regions will usher in more opportunities, and more fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand in the future are likely to be tilted towards these two gradients.
There may be more measures to stabilize the capital market
With the deterioration of the external economic environment, the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China not only proposed to maintain economic stability and financial stability, but also proposed to maintain capital The market is stable. In this regard, Huang Xuejun said that this shows that the central government attaches great importance to my country's capital market and also shows the central government's determination to stabilize the capital market in the next step.
While the European and American stock markets are in turmoil, the Asia-Pacific markets, including the Chinese stock market, have also been greatly adversely affected. For this reason, relevant government departments have successively taken measures to stabilize the stock market. "In my impression, it is rare for the capital market to be raised in the Central Plenary Session. This time the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee proposed to 'maintain the stability of the capital market,' which shows that the central government has further increased its emphasis on the capital market." Zhou Dao said, This reflects that more policies and measures conducive to the stable development of the capital market will be introduced in the future.