First of all, it should be clear that CPI reflects the inflation rate, and the concept of inflation should be the continuous rise of general commodity prices. There are many reasons for inflation, which are generally divided into three categories: cost-driven, demand-driven and structural inflation. You can find these in the book, so I won't go into details.
One,
Indeed, adjusting interest rates is the most direct means to control inflation, but it is not the only means. Controlling prices, preventing speculation, issuing national debt, controlling deposit reserve and issuing central bank bills are all ways to curb the return of price funds. CPI exceeding 3% is serious inflation, and the data released by China last month has exceeded this red line.
Although there is no interest rate increase at present, I think the government has considered many aspects, including the following pressures: 1, international pressure, 2, domestic economic stimulus plan pressure, and 3, it is not enough to use the killer weapon.
1. International pressure: You know that foreign countries have been demanding RMB appreciation. You know, the interest rate in America is still 0-0.25%. You know the interest rates in Europe and Britain have not changed. Then you should know the influence of interest rate on exchange rate. Raising interest rates at this time is undoubtedly a pressure on exchange rate appreciation in economic theory. Is the China government really willing to appreciate the RMB? The answer is definitely no. For any developing country, it does not want its currency to appreciate, which will hit exports and foreign investment. The United States will hold a hearing tomorrow to demand the appreciation of China's currency, which has reached the level of 1:6.73 in recent days. If interest rates are raised, this spread will further attract international arbitrage funds and increase the pressure of RMB appreciation from the most fundamental transactions. In this way, in theory and practice, it gives Europe and America an interface. At present, the international pressure is very great, and I think this is a situation that the government does not want to see.
2. Domestic pressure: Of course, it refers to the economic stimulus plan. The reason for lowering interest rates and expanding investment is to stimulate economic development. A large part of the 4 trillion investment (it should be 80%+) is borrowed by banks. At this time, raising interest rates will lead enterprises to repay loans in advance, or simply not to repay bad debts. All these have an impact on the domestic economy, causing economic decline. Once the economy declines, the blow to China will be enormous. For example, in 20 1 1 year, the economic growth rate of China dropped to 4%, and guess what? Confidence in foreign investment has plummeted, domestic enterprises are even more reluctant to become entities, domestic employment rate has plummeted, domestic demand has plummeted, the economic situation will fall into chaos, and people all over the country and even the world will lose confidence in China. This loss of confidence will keep China from turning over for ten years.
It may not be the time to use the killer interest rate. As I said above, there are many ways to control inflation. Before other methods are useless, it is not appropriate to directly use the means with the greatest side effect-interest rate. We wait for countries to introduce policies. In addition, Europe, the United States, Britain and other countries have also shown signs of inflation, but they still have not taken any measures to control it, because appropriate inflation is inevitable in the process of economic development.
Second, your question is a little ... hehe. Let me tell you a historical story about the 1970s and 1980s. At that time, the global economic crisis broke out in the 1970s and 1980s. Drawing on the experience of the Great Depression, countries around the world began to adopt Keynesianism. It is believed that the best way to control economic downturn and deflation is to expand government investment and expand the money supply. As a result, the global oil crisis of 1980 was stimulated in 1982, which completely "recovered" the economy and even exceeded the pre-crisis level. 1983 Stop government investment, expand money supply and raise interest rates. As a result, in half a year, the economy fell to a position below the crisis underestimation. No one can withstand such drastic fluctuations. As you know, in 1980s, the interest rate in China was around 8%. You need to know more. At that time, the inflation rate in the United States reached 17%, the inflation rate in Britain exceeded 20% for three consecutive years, and the interest rates in the United States were all close to 10%! The economy is actually declining, which gives rise to the word "stagflation". It was later discovered that the original "stagflation" was a crisis that capitalism could not reconcile. Later, after several years of ups and downs, by the end of the 1980s, the global economy finally eased, and various indicators tended to be stable and normal.
When do you think the current CPI will return to normal level? Will the CPI exceed 3% this time be just the beginning? In a few years, will China's CPI exceed 17% as it did in 1980s abroad? Will the interest rate be above 10%? I'm worried myself. Very, very worried.
Third, banks are bound to raise interest rates. When price control, preventing speculation, issuing national debt, controlling deposit reserve and issuing central bank bills all fail, interest rates will be raised. When to raise interest rates, we can pay attention to whether the government has the above actions. These actions are frequent, and interest rate hikes will be quick. Generally speaking, if the CPI still rises within one to two months after the reserve is raised, the interest rate hike is near. Also, inflation has its own inertia, which cannot be solved by raising interest rates once.
Fourthly, my answer to your fourth question is "Yes". The specific reasons, the above several speak very clearly. Let me talk about you personally: the future is terrible, combined with the story I told you in my second question, hehe. At this time, buy a house, buy gold, and buy antique calligraphy and painting to preserve the value, buddy! Stop doing business