When the central bank started reverse repurchase at the end of June, 20 12, the market judged that it was a transitional practice, and there would be operations to reduce RRR soon. But now that seven weeks have passed, the expected RRR cut has not yet arrived, which surprised many people.
"Some people worry that the central bank has not lowered the RRR as expected by the market." Lin Yun, a well-known financial commentator, said that the domestic price index dropped significantly in July, which provided a certain space for monetary policy easing. At the same time, other data also show that the domestic economy needs policy stimulus.
At the same time, however, inflationary pressures still exist, including the recent continuous rise in oil prices and the rise in food prices caused by poor harvests in the United States.
"Secondly, in recent days, the major peripheral economies have remained inactive, and neither the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank has introduced further quantitative easing policies, so the central bank chose to wait and see after cutting interest rates twice in the previous period." Lin Yun believes that from the current situation of China's economy, we really need the support of liquidity. This leads to the central bank taking pains to maintain the market capital cost by means of reverse repurchase while maintaining the liquidity supply. "The central bank only adopts such a cumbersome but easy-to-operate way after weighing the pros and cons, and is unwilling to cut interest rates or reduce RRR at one time."
Under the current policy goal of steady growth, maintaining a reasonable liquidity has become an important goal of the central bank's monetary regulation in 20 12. The third regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank held recently proposed to comprehensively use various monetary policy tools to guide the steady and moderate growth of money and credit and maintain a reasonable scale of social financing.
However, compared with the frequent use of reverse repurchase, the use of monetary instruments to reduce the reserve ratio is becoming relatively cautious. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, believes that although there is a possibility of a small interest rate cut and RRR during the year, the need for a substantial easing of monetary policy has been reduced in the context of economic growth stabilizing and slowly picking up, prices bottoming out, a large money stock, a rebound in house prices and a downward trend in real interest rates in the deposit and loan market.