The Commonwealth Bank of Australia predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia will stabilize the official cash interest rate at 65,438+0% this week, and is still prepared to cut interest rates again when necessary. The bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates in 20 19 1 1 and February 2020.
The bank pointed out that the Australian dollar opened lower against the US dollar this week and is expected to remain under pressure for the rest of this week, mainly due to the deterioration of the global economic outlook and the headwind of trade conflicts. Although the Commonwealth Bank of Australia does not think that the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce a rate cut, it is expected that the minutes of the meeting to be released later will still be cautious about the global economic outlook.
Luo Wei, chairman of the central bank, said that inflation and wage growth are still slow and are expected to increase gradually. In the case of a tight job market, how big the salary increase may be and how quickly it can drive the labor cost to rise and pass it on to the inflation field. These problems are the main uncertainties affecting the inflation outlook.
Wage growth in Australia is currently at a record low, and the growth rate is much slower than household debt, which seriously limits consumers' spending power. Since the beginning of 20 16, Australia's inflation rate has been below the target, which is the biggest reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to a record low of 1.50% last year.