First of all, inflation pressure and hidden overcapacity coexist in China's macro-economy. At the same time, the price increase has structural characteristics and has not yet formed a general and comprehensive increase.
Second, the current problem of excess liquidity caused by various factors in China is difficult to effectively solve in the short term, and the money supply is abundant, while maintaining low and negative interest rates for a long time. In order to preserve and increase the value of assets, people tend to invest assets in securities and markets.
Third, in terms of fiscal revenue, due to the tax sharing ratio between the central and local governments, land transfer income has become the main source of income for local governments, which has changed the behavior of local governments from paying more attention to the development of enterprises to paying more attention to land development and urbanization, thus pushing up the prices of land and real estate.
Fourth, some departments and units speculate on the capital market in violation of laws and regulations, profiteering and artificially raising asset prices.
Fifth, international hot money flows into China through various ways, enters the capital market and waits for opportunities to make profits.
2007- 12-04 10:0 1:30
Li Jinhua:
The third question is the forecast of China's economic indicators in 2007 and 2008.
The research group predicts that the GDP growth rate in 2007 is 1 1.6%, the added value of the primary industry is 4.6%, the added value of the secondary industry is 13.5%, and the added value of the tertiary industry is 10.7%. The real growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society was 2 1.6%, the retail price index of commodities rose by 3.8%, the consumer price index rose by 4.5%, and the price of investment products rose by 3.3%. The real growth rate of urban per capita disposable income is 12%, the real growth rate of rural per capita net income is 8.5%, the real growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods is 12.2%, the growth rate of fiscal revenue is 25.9%, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure is 24.8%, and the fiscal deficit is140 billion yuan. The growth rate of residents' savings balance is 10.5%, the total foreign trade import is $952 billion, the growth rate is 20.3%, and the total export is121200 million, the growth rate is 25. 1%, and the foreign trade surplus is expected to be $260 billion.
2007- 12-04 10:03:3 1
Li Jinhua:
The research group has three suggestions on macro-control policies in 2008.
First, we should reduce the excessive economic growth rate, especially the investment growth rate.
Second, the primary task of macro-control is to ease inflationary pressure and stabilize the price level.
Third, adhere to and improve the standards of energy conservation and emission reduction as the third gate of macro-control.
2007- 12-04 10:03:55
Li Jinhua:
The third big question, I introduce authoritative views.
Chen Jiagui, a well-known economist, editor-in-chief of the Blue Book of Economics and vice president of China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the difficulty of macro-control is increasing under the current situation that the national economy is running at a high level and tends to overheat. First, different understandings have affected the strength and effect of macro-control policies.
Second, the real economy is on the fast track, making adjustment more difficult.
Third, the economic expectation under the background of excess liquidity and negative interest rate has aggravated the expansion of asset prices.
Fourth, inadequate structural reform is an important factor to increase the difficulty of macro-control.
He stressed that fiscal policy should increase support for structural adjustment and monetary policy should be moderately tight. There are three main aspects: first, we must make up our minds to reduce the excessive economic growth rate, especially the investment growth rate; Second, we should take stabilizing prices as an important task of macro-control this year and next; Third, deepen reform and improve the effectiveness of macro-control.
2007- 12-04 10:04:55
Li Jinhua:
For the Olympic economy in 2008, the experts of the research group believe that:
In 2007, Beijing's Olympic economy will enter a period of accelerated development, the driving role of Olympic investment will be continuously enhanced, the Olympic market development effect will be remarkable, and the Olympic industry will develop rapidly. The specific performance is as follows:
1, the direct income of Beijing Olympic Games is rich. According to BOCOG's budget, the budget revenue of hosting the Olympic Games is 654.38+685 million US dollars, and the expenditure is about 654.38+609 million US dollars, leaving 654.38+600 million US dollars after making ends meet.
2. The sustained market development is obvious. BOCOG's market development revenue is expected to surpass Sydney Olympic Games and Athens Olympic Games, reaching $2 billion.
3. Olympic tourism revenue will increase substantially, which will drive the development of related industries. It is predicted that in 2008, Beijing's tourism foreign exchange income will reach 4.8-4.9 billion US dollars, and domestic tourism income will reach1390-149 billion yuan. After the Beijing Olympic Games, Beijing's economy will develop steadily.
2007- 12-04 10:06:32
Li Jinhua:
With regard to the economy of Taiwan Province Province, experts believe that in 2007, the growth rate of economic and foreign trade in Taiwan Province Province declined, the demand for private consumption and investment rebounded, the output value of agriculture and service industry increased, the growth rate of industry declined slightly, the money supply slowed down, the price index rose, the employment situation remained stable, and cross-strait economic and trade relations continued to maintain a rapid development momentum. It is estimated that the economic growth rate of Taiwan Province Province in 2008 is about 4%.
My report is over, thank you.
2007- 12-04 10:09:04
Xie Shouguang:
Thank you, Researcher Li Jinhua, for giving us a very concise introduction, but summing up the important achievements and wonderful views in the Blue Book for media friends to share. So just now, our Dean Jia Gui said that the Blue Book is not only an achievement, but also a platform. This is a feature that is fully reflected here. Today, we are fair to the media. This achievement has never been disclosed to any media before. Today, you got the preliminary results, but at the same time.
Because in China's high-level economic operation, people pay attention to many problems. Today, we are fortunate to have Professor Pei Changhong, director of the Institute of Finance and Trade of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who is an expert on foreign trade issues. China's import and export problems are closely related to the imbalance of the real economy. Let's invite Director Pei to give us a talk. Welcome to visit!
2007- 12-04 10:09:47
Pei Changhong:
Dear friends, as one of the authors of the Blue Book, I mainly write about China's foreign trade, and I am mainly familiar with the open economy. We can only see the data of eight months before the deadline of the blue book, and now the situation has changed in these two months. I just got the customs statistics of 10 these two days. The customs statistics of 10 this month are different from the previous eight months. Now I'd like to share some opinions with you, mainly based on the latest data of 10.
2007- 12-04 10: 12:40
Pei Changhong:
Before 2007 10 month, the import and export trade maintained a high-speed growth trend, with a growth rate of 23.5, which is the growth rate of the total import and export. Among them, exports increased by 26.6% and imports increased by 19.8%. The growth rate of imports is also high, but exports are even higher, almost 7 percentage points higher. Therefore, the trade surplus in the first month of 10 has exceeded $2 10 billion, and it is a foregone conclusion that the trade surplus this year will exceed $250 billion, which is expected at the beginning of the year.
2007- 12-04 10: 14: 18
Pei Changhong:
Since the beginning of this year, in order to reduce the trade surplus, the state has successively introduced many regulatory policies, which can be summarized as follows.
First, the processing trade policy has been adjusted. Prohibited products have been added to the catalogue of processing trade in order to reduce low value-added processing trade and set up new production lines.
Second, the export tax rebate has been substantially adjusted. 553 export tax rebates for products with high pollution, high emission, high energy consumption and low added value were cancelled, and 553 export tax rebates for products with three highs and one low were cancelled. At the same time, the export tax rebate rate of processing trade products, that is, export commodities, was reduced by 2268 items, 553 items were cancelled, and 2268 items were reduced, so the export tax rebate was greatly adjusted.
The third item is to levy export tariffs on resource products. The practice of levying export tariffs is rare in all countries of the world. We imposed export tariffs on textile products when we had a trade dispute with the United States in 2005, and this year we imposed export tariffs on resource products, especially steel, coal and other mineral energy products.
2007- 12-04 10: 15:09
Pei Changhong:
It should be said that this year's policy control is still relatively strong, and the effects of these policies are more obvious in the first half of this year. In the first half of this year, the import growth rate of energy and mineral products was faster than the export growth rate. Our energy and mineral products are both exported and imported. However, due to these measures taken this year, the growth rate of imports is relatively fast and the growth rate of exports is slowing down. Especially coal, the import and export situation has undergone historic changes in the first half of this year.
Until 2006, our coal was imported and exported. On the one hand, we import, on the other hand, we export, but the export is always greater than the import. China is a big coal importer and exporter. In the first half of this year, coal was converted from import and export to net import, that is, exports fell sharply and imports increased sharply, which was in line with the goal of China's macro-control policy. Since the second half of the year, the effects of these macro-control policies have been decreasing month by month. As of June 5,438+10, the cumulative data of energy minerals are: export growth 10.9%, import growth110.2%, gradually approaching, and the growth rates of exports and imports are gradually approaching, with a difference of only 0.3 percentage points. Great changes have taken place in coal. Until September, I checked the customs statistics every month. By September, the net import of coal was 620,000 tons. By June 10, the net import of coal became a net export, and the net export of coal became 920,000 tons. The effect of coal net export structure has been lost by June 5438+ 10, and it has no effect. This year, it is predicted that coal will still be a net export, which is basically the same as that in 2006. Of course, the import and export quantity will be reduced.