★ 1. Ten Reasons for Price Rising According to expert analysis, there are the following 10 reasons, which make us dare not despise this round of price rising in China. 1, the world economy will continue to grow strongly, increasing global inflationary pressure. In view of the good global economic growth momentum in the first half of this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the world economic growth forecast for this year and next to 5.2% from 4.9% in April this year, and the United States has regained its growth momentum in the second quarter; Japan's economic recovery is in good condition and is expected to enter the normal growth track; In the first half of the year, the euro zone economy was significantly better than expected; The economies of emerging markets and developing countries continue to grow rapidly, especially China, Indian and Russian. In the case of sustained and strong global economic growth, supply constraints have increased and inflation risks have increased. 2. China's economy will continue to operate at a high level. Since 2003, China's economy has entered a new boom cycle, and the endogenous power of economic growth is very strong. In the first half of this year, the GDP growth rate reached 1 1.5%, setting a new high in the same period in the past 12 years. The three major demands of investment, consumption and export are heating up in an all-round way, and it is expected that China will maintain a relatively high growth rate in the next few years. Higher economic growth rate will stimulate the rise of total social demand and push up prices. 3. The income of urban and rural residents shows a rare rapid growth trend. In the first half of this year, the average wage of urban workers nationwide increased by18.5% year-on-year; In addition, some surveys show that the per capita cash income of farmers in the first half of the year was 211yuan. After deducting the price factor, the actual growth rate was 13.3%, and the growth rate was 1.4 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. Among them, the wage income of farmers and the income from selling agricultural products increased rapidly, by 19.3% and 17.3% respectively year-on-year, which indicates that the wage increase caused by the "shortage of migrant workers" has spread from coastal areas to all parts of the country. On the one hand, the rising wage level of the labor force and the expansion of the coverage of the social security system will directly raise the costs of enterprises and products and induce cost-driven inflation; On the other hand, it will improve the consumption power of urban and rural residents and lead to demand-driven inflation. 4. Asset prices represented by stock market and real estate continue to rise. In the first half of this year, housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide rose by an average of 5.95% year-on-year. Although house prices are not directly included in CPI, the continuous rise of house prices will be transmitted to CPI through rent, water heating fees, decoration materials and other projects. After more than a month's adjustment, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes continued to fluctuate and rise, hitting record highs, driven by multiple factors such as rapid economic growth, medium and long-term RMB appreciation expectations, and substantial growth in the performance of listed companies. At present, it has reached the high point of 4700 points, and the market turnover has also been enlarged. 5. The high rebound pressure of investment in fixed assets is greater. In the first half of this year, China's total social investment in fixed assets was 5.4168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 3.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Although the year-on-year growth rate has declined, it still remains on a high growth platform, and the investment rebound trend is obvious. Among them, the investment in urban fixed assets increased by 28.5% in June, which was 2.4 percentage points higher than that in1-May. Stimulated by the sharp rise in housing prices, the growth rate of real estate investment has obviously accelerated. In the first half of the year, real estate investment increased by 28.5% year-on-year, 4.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Therefore, before the basic factors such as low interest rate, excess money and credit, substantial increase in corporate profits, and economic growth mainly relying on investment have not fundamentally changed, the pressure of investment rebound is greater. 6. The growth momentum of consumption has obviously picked up. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 4,204.4 billion yuan, up by 15.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2. 1 percentage point higher than the same period of last year, the highest since 1997. According to historical data, about 40% of fixed assets investment funds are gradually transformed into consumer funds. In recent years, the rapid growth of investment funds will inevitably release huge consumption power, and strong exports will also improve the efficiency and employment of enterprises. In addition, the government's support policies for agriculture and rural areas have greatly improved the actual income level of farmers, and these factors will accumulate to promote consumption growth. 7. The rise in food prices is spreading. Affected by factors such as the decline of international grain stocks and international price transmission, domestic grain prices may continue to rise slightly in the near future. Grain is the source of grain production chain, which can largely determine the trend of grain prices. On the one hand, pork and eggs, which rose sharply in the previous period, continued to rise. After consultation, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce believe that the situation of high pig prices and tight pork supply will last for a long time; On the other hand, due to rising costs, instant noodles, dairy products, fast food and so on. Recently, prices have been rising, showing a spreading trend. 8. The market is full of liquidity and there is too much money and credit. After all, the price increase can be attributed to the monetary phenomenon. Due to the high current account surplus and capital account surplus, the base currency passively invested through foreign exchange holdings continues to increase. At the end of June, M2 increased by 17.06% year-on-year, 0.32 percentage points higher than that at the end of May, and also exceeded the target growth rate of 1.06 percentage points set at the beginning of the year. At the same time, credit supply has also increased substantially, with 2.54 trillion yuan of new loans in the first half of the year, a record for the same period in history. Abundant funds will eventually form purchasing power and push up the price level. 9. The international crude oil price soared, and the prices of major non-ferrous metals fluctuated greatly, which brought great pressure to China's price increase. Since the beginning of this year, international crude oil prices have fluctuated, but China has been strictly controlling refined oil prices. At present, domestic refined oil products are upside down with international oil prices, and the factors of sharp rise in international oil prices have not been fully reflected in China's CPI. It is reported that the three major domestic oil giants have repeatedly written to demand the price increase of refined oil. If the oil price is adjusted accordingly, China's CPI will be directly affected and become one of the main pressures of inflation. 10, the comprehensive promotion of resource price and service price reform will push up the prices of related products, thus directly or indirectly pushing up the overall price level in the future. In order to limit the development of "two high-tech and one capital" industries, the state will accelerate the process of tax reform in the future and levy fuel tax, sewage charge and sewage treatment fee one after another to encourage the rational development and utilization of resources. Moreover, the resource price has obvious transmission effect on the service price, and about half of the increase in service price comes from the transmission of resource price. Therefore, the upward adjustment of resource prices will inevitably lead to the overall increase of service prices, thus releasing the potential upward pressure on service prices such as public transportation. ★ Second, the deep-seated reasons for the continuous price increase 1, and the new price increase factors have increased. At present, China's economy has gradually entered a new round of growth cycle, the market price has gradually started to pick up, and the demand for investment and consumer goods production has increased. Excessive demand and rising prices will increase the expected profit rate of the real estate industry, and more social funds will flow into real estate development, thus stimulating the prices of steel, cement and other building materials to be firm, and the rising level of housing sales prices has reached a new high in recent years. Some cities have formed a serious real estate bubble. Since 2006, the measures to increase the price of public services have increased in various places, which has led to the rise of service prices, among which the price increase of water, refined oil, taxis and public transport will become an important factor affecting the overall price level in 2007. 2. The overall level of consumer prices has risen. The rise of labor price will push up the price from both cost and demand. Mainly affected by the rebound in food prices and the rise in the prices of major non-staple foods such as meat, poultry and eggs. Water, electricity, coal, fuel, supply and demand costs, the price upside down phenomenon is very serious, local governments can not bear the burden of subsidies, suppliers are also forced by various pressures not to raise prices, so the willingness to raise prices is very strong. 3. Excessive investment in fixed assets has led to a sharp rise in the prices of means of production. The price increase of coal, electricity, oil and other resource-based industries has been gradually transmitted to the housing price. House prices rose by 3.2% compared with the end of last year, which became another important reason for the price increase. According to statistics, steel prices rose by about 15% on average. The latest survey shows that the average price per ton of barnacles has risen by about 500 yuan, which has far exceeded the high of 4,000-4,200 yuan per ton during the overheated economy in 2000. Food price is the main driving force of this round of price increase. In recent months, food prices have been rising. With the storage and purchasing of grain, there is little room for the grain price to rise sharply again, which leads to the rise of feed commodity prices. At the same time, the current problems of pork and egg prices have gradually surfaced, and the price increase momentum is relatively rapid, which has become the main factor to promote the current price increase. In addition, the price increase of eggs and pork is also affected by the southern market. 5. The grain price is influenced by the foreign grain price to some extent. At the end of last year, the overall domestic price level jumped, which was mainly caused by the fluctuation of edible oil prices in the international market. Relevant information shows that the grain price in the international market is still rising in 2007, which will continue to have a direct impact on the grain price increase in China. Although China's grain output has increased in the past two years, intensive scale farming and industrial grain use have increased substantially. At present, the grain supply has not yet reached a loose state of obvious oversupply, but a balance between supply and demand in a tight state.