< 1 > American interest rates may fall below 1.5% at the end of 2008. With the gradual recovery of the American economy, interest rates will be raised by 25 basis points (even less) in 2009 to restore the Fed's ability to regulate the American economy and stock market and the influence of the United States on the world economy. The United States always knows how to concentrate its people in the most profitable industries, so it can maintain its absolute advantage for a long time. By the end of 20 10, the United States will still sit firmly on the throne of the world's first superpower with the world's first gross national product, gold reserves, educational strength, scientific and technological strength, military strength (especially military expenditure), the number of global top 500 enterprises, comprehensive national strength and the world's largest currency, the US dollar (equivalent to the influence of the euro). The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has indeed had a significant negative impact on the world stock market, especially on the confidence of investors and citizens. However, we should also see that many important economic entities in the world, such as BRIC countries (China, Russian Federation, Brazil, India), Australia and other real economies are relatively strong, and the Japanese economy is gradually picking up. The proportion of major indicators of the United States in the world drops slightly every year, showing the strong trend of Asian economy. Driven by the great prosperity of the world economy and its own policies to promote economic development, the United States will gradually get out of the subprime mortgage crisis and become an important engine of the world economy again. It is predicted that the annual economic growth rate of the United States is about 2.6% (this growth rate is largely determined by Sino-US relations, because Sino-US relations directly affect international oil prices and Sino-US trade volume. ). Based on the exchange rate at the end of 20 12, the gross national product of the United States will fall below 19% of the world gross national product in 20 12, but the comprehensive national strength will still account for more than 20% of the world's comprehensive national strength, and it will also account for the absolute proportion of the world in most important fields! In 20 15, US military expenditure will exceed $65,438 +0.5 trillion. The main pressures of American economic development: American subprime mortgage crisis, rapid rise of international oil prices, huge trade deficit, huge fiscal deficit, high inflation rate, weak dollar, etc. , is an important reason for the weak dollar, which in turn leads to the high inflation rate in the United States and the rapid rise of international oil prices.
Military: (1) Based on large-scale military scientific research projects, the US military strength has increased by more than15% every year; (2) The United States commands the four major command centers of American troops around the world: (Pentagon) National Military Command Center-the largest command center, National Emergency Air Command Center-the most powerful air command center, strategic air command center-strategic air center, and Cheyenne Mountain Command Center in North America-air defense and sky defense command center; The seventh district, the largest top secret weapon research base of the US Navy and the largest weapon test center in the future, is the "Lake China" naval base, which is located under the Hoover Dam near Richcrest, California, USA. (3) Military strategy: The United States has national missile defense plan (NMD) and theater missile defense plan (TMD) military systems; The United States continues to carry out military aggression and military exercises, and adopts a military strategy of maintaining war through war; The US intelligence department employs about 6.5438+0.5 million people, and its annual expenditure exceeds 30 billion US dollars. In the past 20 years, China's military strength is slightly higher than that of Indian and far higher than that of Japanese. In order to maintain a relative balance, the United States will definitely pull Australia and Canada to strengthen their military strength to limit China in the future. (On May 6, 2008, the Australian Morning Post reported that the US Department of Defense had approved the sale of Aegis weapon systems to Australia, with a total price of 450 million US dollars. The US military claims that this system can enhance Australia's air combat capability. "); (4) Weapons and equipment: In addition to the part shown in the above picture, the United States also has a large number of world-renowned high-tech large aircraft such as Air Force One and Rivet Reconnaissance Aircraft. Six technical advantages of the fourth generation fighter F-22A Raptor: stealth, supersonic cruise, super maneuver, short takeoff and landing, highly integrated and intelligent avionics system, and good support performance.
< 2 > Japan ranks second in the world in terms of gross national product, foreign exchange reserves, foreign trade volume, per capita gross national product, higher education strength, seventh military strength and five military potentials. Japan's advantages are almost directly reflected in the economy and the science and technology supported by the economy, so once Japan's gross national product ranking drops, its comprehensive national strength ranking will also drop sharply. In the past few decades, Japan's gross national product has been ranked second or third in the world, and it has accumulated abundant capital (bank deposits, gold, foreign exchange reserves, fixed assets (mainly construction)), so Japan's status as a big country can be maintained for more than 10 years; By the end of 2020, Japan's gross national product will be out of the top five, foreign exchange reserves will be out of the top three, and foreign trade volume will be out of the top four, and Japan's status as a big country will basically end. The most important force to end Japan's status as a great power may not be the future three superpowers (China, the United States and Russia), but Australia, which relies on most of Japan's resources.
Military: (1) The Japanese government's "three non-nuclear principles": not to manufacture, possess or introduce nuclear weapons. (2) Weapons and equipment: Japan's active F- 15J fighter, F-2 fighter, C- 130 transport aircraft and E-767 early warning aircraft all have aerial refueling capability.
< 3 > With the slight appreciation of the euro against the US dollar and certain economic growth, Germany has been the world export champion for many years and maintained a huge trade surplus. In 20 16, Germany's gross national product will rank third in the world (surpassing Japan, next to the United States and China), and its foreign trade volume is expected to rank second in the world (surpassing the United States, next to China). With the slight decline of France's influence, as the most powerful country in the European Union, Germany's political and economic status is bound to become increasingly prominent in the world. Education has always been ahead of the world, and has cultivated world-class great men such as Kant, Beethoven, Hegel, Marx, Engels and Einstein.
< 4 > China (1) From 2009, China will become the first engine of the world economy (the negative impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on the economies of the United States and the European Union is higher than that on China, making China the first engine of the world economy two years ahead of schedule), and China will also become strong in key fields such as finance, national defense and aerospace science and technology. At the end of 20 1 1, the military strength is the second in the world (compared with Russia, the offensive ability is comparable-China emphasizes national defense more), the gross national product is the second in the world, the foreign exchange reserves are the first in the world (China's foreign exchange reserves will exceed the sum of the foreign exchange reserves of the other nine countries in the world 10), and the domestic market is the third in the world (after the European Union and the United States). The scientific and technological strength ranks second in the world (aerospace science and technology, military science and technology, nuclear science and technology, electronic information technology and other core fields rank second in the world, and ship science and technology ranks first in the world), accounting for the second largest proportion of global top 500 enterprises (after the United States), the world's largest population, the world's largest number of college students (more than 30 million) and the world's largest gold medal (a symbol of sports superpower status). Among the top ten ports in the world, China has more than five ports: Shanghai, Hongkong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Qingdao and Tianjin. Economically, it forms a world economic triangle with the European Union and the United States; Militarily, it has formed a world military triangle with the United States and Russia, and its status as a superpower has begun to emerge. However, at that time, China was only at the advanced stage of a medium-sized developing country, and the advantages of the EU and the United States were relatively large. There was still a long way to go before it could surpass the United States and become the world's first superpower, or even surpass the EU.
(2) China's competitive advantage: by the end of 20 12, the eastern part of China will reach the level of primary developed countries, with a high per capita GNP; The per capita GNP of central and western China is slightly higher than that of India, and it has advantages over India in terms of resources, energy and transportation. Commodity transportation: land can directly reach the European Union and Russia through the Eurasian Continental Bridge; Shipping can be shipped to Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, India, the United States, Australia and so on. Air can be traded quickly with other parts of the world, and at that time, China itself was the second largest market in the world after the European Union and slightly higher than the United States. Therefore, in the 13 years from the beginning of 2008 to the end of 2020, China will always be the world's largest manufacturing center (it is more necessary for China to become the world's high-tech product manufacturing center), but the region will gradually shift from the east to the central and western regions, and the east will also develop from a world manufacturing center to a world creative center (China needs this in the future). With the increase of China's gross national product (GNP) in the world, in the future, the rapid development of most economic entities in the world will largely depend on the rapid growth of trade with China.
(3) China's external competitive pressure: In the next five years, the growth rate of Russian and Indian foreign trade will be similar to that of China; By the end of 2020, the gross national product of Russia and India will be among the top eight in the world. By then, the competitiveness of these two countries in international trade will be no less than that of the United States. The transformation of a big country into a powerful one will divert China's economy and relatively weaken China's international competitiveness. The rapid growth of the world may also lead to high inflation on a global scale. The proportion of Russia, India, Brazil, Australia and other resource-rich countries in the world's gross national product will increase year by year; From the end of 20 10 to the end of 20 18, it is impossible for China to host two Olympic Games and two World Expos, which will accelerate the development of China's rival countries; China will repay its loan to Japan in the future.
China's internal development problems: high inflation rate; Fiscal deficit and national debt also have some pressure; Gold reserves rank lower among the world powers (far less than the combined gold reserves of EU countries and the United States); The development speed of resource science and technology and energy science and technology is lower than the growth speed of resource and energy consumption; The average national education level is not high, which will put China people at a disadvantage in the fierce international financial competition.
⑤ The rapid rise of oil and gas prices in Russia is an important foundation for the rapid economic growth in Russia. In the first quarter of 2008, the foreign trade volume was US$ 6,543.8+US$ 063.3 billion, up 55.8% year-on-year. The foreign trade surplus was $53.6 billion, an increase of 60% over the same period last year. Moscow has become the first choice for European real estate developers to invest in Europe. By the end of 20 12, Russia's foreign exchange reserves will surpass Japan, ranking second in the world; The export volume will rise to the fifth place in the world (after China, German, American and Japanese). There is 20 14 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia; Putin is an excellent historian and an excellent futurist. If Russia continues to follow Putin's route, by the end of 20 15, Russia will develop into a moderately developed country, with a gross national product equivalent to that of Italy, the seventh in the world. By the end of 2020, the gross national product will be in the top five in the world, and its comprehensive national strength will be equivalent to that of the United States.
< 6 > At present, the computer system in the world relies heavily on English, and the United States will remain the world's first superpower in the next five years, and Britain will also become one of the world's second superpowers, so English and Chinese will become the two most important languages in the world, and Britain has language advantages; British immigrants and their descendants account for the absolute proportion of the population in the United States, Canada, Australia and other countries; The increasingly prominent position of the world finance also makes London, the world financial center, more and more influential. With the help of London Olympic Games (20 12 London Olympic Games is one of the most important conditions for Britain's comprehensive national strength to leap from quantity to quality), the development prospect of Britain deserves attention.
[7] France is the second nuclear power in the world after the United States, and has advantages in tourism, military science and technology and culture. If we can continue to maintain good relations with China, we will be in an advantageous position in the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution in the world from 2013 to 2020, and even have the opportunity to catch up with Germany in terms of gross national product and comprehensive national strength, but now there is a crisis in Sino-French relations.
[8] Canada is the only net oil exporter among the seven developed countries; Uranium reserves rank second in the world; Mutual largest trading partner with the United States; It is recognized as one of the countries with good immigration policies in the world; Global warming has greatly increased the exploitable space in Canada. If the Arctic Ocean waterway is opened, Canada may achieve a rapid leap.
< 9 > India is the second most populous country in the world, and also the second or third largest software country in the world, and its comprehensive national strength is rapidly increasing, second only to China and Russia. By the end of 20 12, India will grow into one of the six superpowers in the world; India is proficient in English.
More than 200 million people speak English, which is India's advantage in the field of modern computers, especially in the software industry; (It is said that India has more than 654.38+100000 tons of gold and 654.38+105000 tons of silver. ) After 2065.438+02, the Indian government was able to buy 5,000 tons of gold in a very short time, making Indian Rupee quickly become one of the world currencies with high value and recognized by the whole world, further enhancing India's status as a sub-superpower. Forbes magazine reported on May 4th, 2008 that mukesh ambani, a 5 1 year-old Indian billionaire worth $43 billion, is spending $2 billion to build himself the most expensive private "skyscraper mansion" in the world, with a height of 173 meters (left).
Military: India has been maintaining huge military purchases, and plans to purchase more than $30 billion in military hardware and software in the next five years; It is said that India considers itself the first military power in Asia.
< 10 > Brazil is the fifth most populous country in the world, the fifth largest country in land area, an important exporter of important resources and energy such as iron ore and oil, and owns Vale do Brasil, the world's largest iron ore producer, which holds about 4 billion tons of iron ore. Coffee production ranks first in the world; It has the largest plateau (Brazil Plateau), the largest plain (Amazon Plain), the largest river basin (Amazon River) and the largest tropical rain forest (Amazon Rainforest) in the world. By the end of 20 12, Brazil will develop into the strongest country in Latin America, Africa and Oceania in the southern hemisphere.
< 1 1 > Australia is the largest coal exporter in the Asia-Pacific region and one of the largest iron ore exporters in the world; Uranium reserves account for about 40% of the world; The world's largest wheat exporter; The average price of real estate doubles every seven years, which has become the basic law of the Australian real estate market, with extremely low risk and extremely high rate of return; The service industry accounts for almost 80% of its economic activities and 1 1% of GDP, and the service quality of the banking industry ranks third in the world. The rate of currency appreciation is the highest in the world, and the population is also growing rapidly. It is one of the countries with more development potential in the world.
< 13 > if the won continues to weaken, the gross national product of Korea will be surpassed by Mexico in 2009 and by Australia and the Netherlands in 20 1 1, which will have a great impact on Korea's international status.
< 14 > among all the big countries in Spain, the contradiction between Spain and other big countries seems to be the least obvious now. If Spain can better handle its relations with world powers, and take advantage of the strong Asian economy with China as its economic center and the rapid economic growth in Africa, Spain's comprehensive national strength will surpass Italy and even have a higher international ranking before the end of 2020.