2) Stocks are pricing the future. The future is so unpredictable.
3) Once the stock (in the future) can be bought and sold, it may not be allowed, and it may be a premium. The premium part is virtual wealth.
4) Dreaming is human nature. In general, people are always thinking about the future and always overestimate the future. 20 times the price-earnings ratio. It will take 20 years to recover the cost. In reality, we generally don't invest in projects that take 20 years to recover our investment, but we always say that stocks with a price-earnings ratio of 20 times are not expensive.
5) Virtual wealth can stimulate consumption. The stock has gone up and you dare to buy anything.
6) Virtual wealth can attract more investment and give enterprises more cash. The most typical one is IPO.
7) Before the stock market appeared, the economy expanded and reproduced through surplus. With stocks, you can spend and invest in virtual wealth. What an honor. Now that we have got the virtual benefits, we will pay for it. You can't make a soft landing, and you can't play well. You can't always blow bubbles to the right size, just right.
8) Who will benefit from the new economic bubble? Because. Com, of course. There is no money in the stock market. Your money has been used by enterprises to develop industries. When you sell stocks, you have to have new investors to buy them, which has nothing to do with the enterprise.
9) The essence of the subprime mortgage bubble is that people all over the world take money to let Americans live in luxury houses. The subprime mortgage went bankrupt. America wants to save its banks. The reason is simple: let these banks innovate new bubbles in the future and bring money from all over the world to the United States.
10) Virtual wealth has the nature of self-expansion and produces bubbles. Making bubbles requires props, and railways, clivia, new economy and real estate all act as props.
1 1) Bubble, a happy bubble.
12) but the foam is large. There's always a break. For example, this bubble burst from subprime mortgage. When the bubble burst, confidence disappeared. The extreme shrinkage of virtual wealth will lead to low consumption and unemployment. Damage to the real economy.
13) At this time, the country needs to reduce taxes. Prevent low consumption.
14) at this time, the state will cut interest rates, encourage consumption, and reduce the cost of corporate loans. At this point, the stock market has been unable to raise funds.
15) at this time, the state can't let banks and insurance companies fail too much. Without bank loans, enterprises cannot expand. Without insurance, citizens dare not spend.
16) The country needs money at this time. Governments with fiscal deficits cannot reduce taxes.
17) The state is not omnipotent. The country can only let the rapidly declining information take a breath, re-create more wealth, and need more good companies and new props.
Therefore, socialism is not the bane of the financial crisis. As long as you need to take advantage of the virtual economy, you have financial risks. This is fair. This has nothing to do with socialism. Planned control can't effectively prevent bubbles from being too big or too small.
Since 2008, the impact of the financial crisis has expanded rapidly, which not only led to the contraction of the global financial industry, but also slowed down the growth of the world economy. The possibility of economic recession in the United States is increasing, and the impact on the economies of various countries is different. However, due to the increasingly obvious trend of integration, the importance of international capital flow and international capital market to China's economic development is increasing, and China's financial risks are also increasing. How to deal with this challenge and avoid disadvantages is an important topic for the world and China. Whether the world economy can get rid of "stagflation" and "imbalance" and achieve a new round of sustainable growth depends on the guidance of emerging economies and the arrival of new technological revolution. Therefore, China should actively face the current economic crisis, take practical and effective measures to deal with it, turn the crisis into an opportunity, let China stand firm in this crisis, let China connect with the world, face the economic crisis together, and be a responsible big country.
The financial crisis at the beginning of this century has intensified. Because it happened in the era of economic globalization, its destructiveness is self-evident. The violent financial storm suddenly set off by Wall Street quickly swept the United States and the global economy related to the United States. The financial crisis gradually evolved into a financial crisis and spread to the real economy. If not handled properly, the financial crisis may lead to economic crisis. The terrible thing about the economic crisis is that it may turn into a social crisis or even a full-scale political crisis. Under the background of economic globalization, the trend of China's economic integration with the world economy has been further strengthened. There is no doubt that a serious financial crisis in the United States will definitely have an impact on China's economy. Therefore, in the face of the financial crisis, we must face it squarely and step on difficulties. At the same time, as a rising power, we should shoulder our responsibilities, contribute to the improvement of the world economy, and lay a more solid foundation for China's political, diplomatic and economic development. This requires us to understand the causes of the financial crisis and its impact on the world and China, and finally find a solution to the crisis. So as to realize China's more important position in the world and avoid the risk that the financial crisis will harm the world again.
Second, the impact of the financial crisis on countries around the world.
Financial globalization makes the world enjoy the dividends brought by globalization, but it also brings corresponding risks. Due to the development of financial liberalization and economic globalization, all parts of the world are in different degrees of financial openness, and the proportion of US dollars in the international settlement and foreign exchange reserves of central banks around the world has remained above 60%. When the "leader" has problems, it will inevitably have a domino effect, which will lead to the global financial market quickly falling into extreme panic. Since the US economy accounts for nearly 30% of the world's total, and its imports account for 15% of global trade, the US economic recession will lead to the decline of global commodity trade, which will further affect the export and economic growth of some developing countries that are highly dependent on foreign trade. The serious impact of the crisis on the real economy is likely to bring about the rise of global trade protectionism and form new obstacles to economic recovery. Large-scale rescue measures will also make the US government, which already has a huge fiscal deficit, worse. Once there is a wanton issuance of bonds and paper money, it will inevitably lead to a decline in US dollar credit and push up the global inflation rate. With the severe global economic situation, more and more enterprises have been hit, and the profit rate has been declining. In order to control costs, layoffs and salary reduction have become the most commonly used and preferred methods for enterprises. Unemployment and survival pressure have become the words that have attracted much attention recently.
According to the prediction of experts of the International Labor Organization in early 2008, the number of unemployed people in the world will reach another record in 2009, reaching 2 1 10,000, which started with the subprime mortgage crisis in early 2007, and then eased slightly in June 2007, and hit with a stronger momentum at the beginning of the new year. With the publication of financial statements of financial institutions in the fourth quarter of 2007, more and more subprime mortgage losses have been disclosed. According to the data of the U.S. Treasury Department, the write-off amount of assets losses announced by American financial institutions has accumulated over $654.38+050 billion, far higher than the expectation of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke of $50-654.38+000 billion.
On June 5th, 65438+ 10/kloc-0, Citigroup announced a loss of $9.83 billion in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2007, and announced a write-down of its subprime assets 18 10 billion and a 40% reduction in dividends. 65438+ 10/7, Merrill Lynch announced the worst performance in the fourth quarter of 2007 in more than ten years, with impairment reserve of1600 million USD, of which CDO (debt-backed bonds) impairment of1250 million USD; The loss was $9.8 billion, resulting in a loss of $7.8 billion for the whole year, far exceeding market expectations. 65438+1On October 22nd, the financial reports released by Bank of America, the second largest bank in the United States, and Wachovia Bank, the fourth largest bank in the United States, showed that due to the loss of subprime loans and poor investment income, the profits of the two banks both fell sharply in the fourth quarter of last year, by as much as 95% and 98% respectively.
Write-downs and losses of bank assets have spread to Europe and Japan. 654381October 30th, UBS Group AG announced that its loss in the fourth quarter of 2007 reached 125 billion Swiss francs (about11400 million US dollars), setting a new record for Citigroup and Merrill Lynch. According to Kyodo News, six major Japanese banking groups, such as Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho, Sumitomo Mitsui, Sumitomo Trust, Risona and Mitsui Central Group, suffered losses of nearly $5 billion due to US subprime mortgage.
The subprime mortgage crisis also spread to bond insurance companies. On June 365438+1October 3 1 day, the world's largest bond insurer, MBIA Company of the United States, suffered a net loss of $2.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007, that is, a net loss per share of 18. 1 USD, which was the highest in history. Bond insurers are likely to be downgraded, which will further spread the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis.
Third, the impact of the financial crisis on China.
China is a paranoid economy, mainly driven by foreign trade and investment, supplemented by domestic demand. It has the largest dollar reserves in the world. Shortly after joining the international floating exchange rate, winter was hit by the world economic crisis. First, the RMB kept pushing up against the US dollar, and then the world crisis brought about a sharp drop in international economic demand. Coupled with the soaring international energy and food prices, it has further aggravated high inflation and further increased the production cost of the domestic real economy, making the downstream enterprise economy unbearable. Domestic consumer prices continue to rise, leading to a sharp decline in the consumer economy. Coupled with the impact of serious natural disasters, the real economy is getting worse and the business activities of enterprises are struggling. Many enterprises and companies need loans from the financial system to increase the liquidity of enterprises. Once the capital chain breaks, they will have insufficient liquidity (lack of money) and can't reproduce. Large enterprises will close down, workers will be laid off and the quality of life will continue to decline. Coupled with the current inflation, disposable income has decreased and purchasing power has shrunk. If consumption is not strong, natural production will decrease, which is the internal principle of financial crisis turning into economic crisis. In July and August 2008, many small and medium-sized enterprises in China closed down one after another. Apart from the global economic downturn, the biggest impact on China is the rapid appreciation of RMB. With the increase of the exchange rate against the US dollar, the price of goods exported by China has risen, which has reduced the profit margin of low labor costs in China, and led to the decline of profit margins of many labor-intensive enterprises in China, resulting in loss-making operations. Coupled with the tight monetary policy some time ago, it is difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to borrow money to maintain production, and many enterprises have closed down. According to the annual report "Asia Development Outlook Update 2008" released by the Asian Development Bank on June 6th, it is predicted that the economic growth rate of China will drop from 1 1.9% in 2007 to10%. In 2009, China's economic growth rate will further drop to 9.5%. The impact on China is mainly reflected in three aspects.
1, entity listed companies that rely heavily on exports and financial institutions that have invested heavily overseas.
The export-oriented economic entities in the southeast coast of China are mainly export-oriented, and there are many labor-intensive enterprises. The economic crisis led to a sharp decline in export business and the products could not be sold. A large number of commodities resurfaced and hit the domestic market. There will be many extremely cheap textiles and small household appliances in those places, and a large number of private enterprises will close down and their bosses will leave. Foreign-funded enterprises further accelerated their evacuation. At present, this situation has spread from the coast to many places in the mainland. This will slow down China's economic growth this year and next, and slow down the growth of exports and investment in fixed assets.
2. Real estate industry.
In the past few years, due to the overheated investment in fixed assets, inflation and the appreciation of China's currency, a large number of bubbles have emerged in the real estate industry. After the bubble burst, some unfavorable factors appeared one after another, such as the unfair land distribution system within the system (a large number of landlords appeared in the peak period, and the land price rose rapidly), the rising speed of house prices far exceeded the rising speed of consumers' wages, and the continuous decline of the stock market locked in a large amount of funds (the property income of consumers shrank seriously). But it is gratifying that the asset securitization reform in the real estate industry is still in its infancy, thus avoiding the subprime mortgage crisis similar to that in the United States.
3. Iron and steel industry and other energy industries.
Due to the financial crisis, a large number of foreign trade enterprises closed down, the real estate industry shrank, and the domestic demand for energy and steel decreased, which inevitably led to the continuous decline of steel prices and energy prices.
In the face of the sudden financial crisis, we should not be overwhelmed by it, but bravely meet the challenge. Opportunities and challenges coexist forever. We should face up to the financial crisis, but don't be afraid, overcome it and welcome another opportunity for China to take off.
Fourth, how to deal with the crisis brought by the financial crisis.
The world generally takes three steps to deal with it.
1. Current measures: three measures to rescue the market.
First, equity restructuring, capital increase and share expansion; Second, bad debts are packaged, cut and stripped; The third is to inject funds to solve liquidity. First, the government reorganized financial institutions in crisis and increased capital and shares. For example, the United States nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and turned private enterprises into state-controlled enterprises. Secondly, peel off the bad debts of the bank, pack them aside, and then redeem the funds after the bank recovers. If the bank fails, the government will pay the bill and clean up the bad debts. Third, when banks are caught in a liquidity crisis and people run, inject funds to increase cash flow. Or the government comes forward to guarantee and enhance social confidence; Or the government can guarantee that other banks can lend.
2. Medium-term goal: Revitalize the real economy.
How to curb the decline of the real economy is a problem that the whole world attaches great importance to and pays attention to. The solution is still to increase investment, stimulate consumption and increase exports, as well as loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy. At present, governments all over the world have initiated policies to increase investment and stimulate consumption, abandoned trade protectionism and taken concerted action.
3. Long-term direction: restructuring the international monetary system.
1944 The Bretton Woods system was based on gold, with the US dollar as the most important international reserve currency. The US dollar was directly linked to gold, and the currencies of various countries were linked to the US dollar at fixed exchange rates. The future world monetary system should be a new system with three pillars: US dollar, Euro and Asian dollar (mainly Asian currencies such as RMB and Japanese yen). A relatively stable floating exchange rate is implemented among the three major currencies, and the currencies of various countries are linked to the three major currencies. Countries corresponding to the three major currencies should implement the "G standard"-GDP standard. That is, GDP should be roughly equal to the balance of bank loans, the market value of the stock market and the market value of real estate, and the virtual economy should maintain a reasonable proportion with the real economy.
China's Measures to Deal with the Financial Crisis
At present, the world financial crisis has also had an impact on China. With the correction of stock market and housing market, the orders of coastal processing trade enterprises have decreased, some enterprises have stopped production and closed down, and the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises have become more prominent. The best way to prevent financial risks is to optimize the domestic economic structure and expand the domestic economy. Only by optimizing the domestic economic structure can China truly improve its long-term balance of payments and protect itself from the impact of international capital flows. Prudent steps and strategies should be taken to prepare and guide the opening of financial markets. Even after China's entry into WTO, we should be soberly aware that China and developed countries are at different stages of development, but capital globalization and free flow are the general trend. Therefore, at present, we should make active preparations to gradually realize the adjustment of the financial market and financial system, so as to lay a solid foundation for China's safe and successful integration into the global capital market. China government has taken effective measures to actively respond to the financial crisis: 4 trillion investment plans have been launched, and local governments have also launched large-scale investment plans. At the same time, some more active fiscal and financial policies have been introduced one after another, which is conducive to stimulating consumption, expanding domestic demand and promoting the transformation of China's economy into a domestic demand-driven one.
China has a vast development space and a huge domestic demand market. China is in a period of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization and rapid improvement of people's living standards. By 2020, a well-off society will be built in an all-round way. After 654.38+0 years, China's per capita GDP will exceed 654.38+0 million US dollars. Broad development space and strong domestic demand will not only support China's sustained and rapid economic development, but also play an important role in alleviating the world financial crisis. The central government has superb leadership skills, seeing things early and acting quickly, and the predictability, pertinence and effectiveness of macro-control are constantly improving. For example, this year, in the first half of the year, the economy maintained steady and rapid development, and prices were controlled to rise too fast; After September, strengthen macro-control and implement flexible and prudent macroeconomic policies; After June 165438+ 10, we will resolutely implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to promote economic growth and stabilize market confidence.
Generally speaking, China's economic growth will slow down this year, and its inertia will decline in the first half of 2009, and it will begin to emerge from the shadow of the world economic recession in the second half. The international financial crisis bottomed out at the end of 2009, the economic crisis bottomed out around the end of 20 10, and it began to recover from 201to 20 12. The most important thing in the financial crisis is confidence. We believe in the government's ability to handle the crisis and have confidence in the fundamentals of China's economic development. The confidence of each of us is the best way to overcome the crisis, and we believe that this crisis will definitely become a new starting point for China's economic take-off.
Through this financial crisis, the imbalance of regional economic development, serious imbalance of industrial layout and imbalance of industrial structure has been changed. These problems plague every link of the whole economy, and the structural contradictions are prominent. The economic policy has long been dominated by foreign trade exports and investment, supplemented by domestic demand. When the world economy gets rid of "stagflation" and "imbalance", a new round of sustainable growth depends on the guidance of emerging economies and the arrival of new technological revolution. Therefore, China should actively face the current economic crisis, take practical and effective measures to deal with it, turn the crisis into an opportunity, let China stand firm in this crisis, let China connect with the world, face the economic crisis together, and be a responsible big country. This crisis will definitely turn into a new starting point for China's economic take-off.
1: Current measures: three measures to rescue the market.
First, equity restructuring, capital increase and share expansion; Second, bad debts are packaged, cut and stripped; The third is to inject funds to solve liquidity. First, the government reorganized financial institutions in crisis and increased capital and shares. For example, the United States nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and turned private enterprises into state-controlled enterprises. Secondly, peel off the bad debts of the bank, pack them aside, and then redeem the funds after the bank recovers. If the bank fails, the government will pay the bill and clean up the bad debts. Third, when banks are caught in a liquidity crisis and people run, inject funds to increase cash flow. Or the government comes forward to guarantee and enhance social confidence; Or the government can guarantee that other banks can lend.
2. Medium-term goal: Revitalize the real economy.
How to curb the decline of the real economy is a problem that the whole world attaches great importance to and pays attention to. The solution is still to increase investment, stimulate consumption and increase exports, as well as loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy. At present, governments all over the world have initiated policies to increase investment and stimulate consumption, abandoned trade protectionism and taken concerted action.
3. Long-term direction: restructuring the international monetary system.
1944 The Bretton Woods system was based on gold, with the US dollar as the most important international reserve currency. The US dollar was directly linked to gold, and the currencies of various countries were linked to the US dollar at fixed exchange rates. The future world monetary system should be a new system with three pillars: US dollar, Euro and Asian dollar (mainly Asian currencies such as RMB and Japanese yen). A relatively stable floating exchange rate is implemented among the three major currencies, and the currencies of various countries are linked to the three major currencies. Countries corresponding to the three major currencies should implement the "G standard"-GDP standard. That is, GDP should be roughly equal to the balance of bank loans, the market value of the stock market and the market value of real estate, and the virtual economy should maintain a reasonable proportion with the real economy.
China's Measures to Deal with the Financial Crisis
At present, the world financial crisis has also had an impact on China. With the correction of stock market and housing market, the orders of coastal processing trade enterprises have decreased, some enterprises have stopped production and closed down, and the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises have become more prominent. The best way to prevent financial risks is to optimize the domestic economic structure and expand the domestic economy. Only by optimizing the domestic economic structure can China truly improve its long-term balance of payments and protect itself from the impact of international capital flows. Prudent steps and strategies should be taken to prepare and guide the opening of financial markets. Even after China's entry into WTO, we should be soberly aware that China and developed countries are at different stages of development, but capital globalization and free flow are the general trend. Therefore, at present, we should make active preparations to gradually realize the adjustment of the financial market and financial system, so as to lay a solid foundation for China's safe and successful integration into the global capital market. China government has taken effective measures to actively respond to the financial crisis: 4 trillion investment plans have been launched, and local governments have also launched large-scale investment plans. At the same time, some more active fiscal and financial policies have been introduced one after another, which is conducive to stimulating consumption, expanding domestic demand and promoting the transformation of China's economy into a domestic demand-driven one.
China has a vast development space and a huge domestic demand market. China is in a period of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization and rapid improvement of people's living standards. By 2020, a well-off society will be built in an all-round way. After 654.38+0 years, China's per capita GDP will exceed 654.38+0 million US dollars. Broad development space and strong domestic demand will not only support China's sustained and rapid economic development, but also play an important role in alleviating the world financial crisis. The central government has superb leadership skills, seeing things early and acting quickly, and the predictability, pertinence and effectiveness of macro-control are constantly improving. For example, this year, in the first half of the year, the economy maintained steady and rapid development, and prices were controlled to rise too fast; After September, strengthen macro-control and implement flexible and prudent macroeconomic policies; After June 165438+ 10, we will resolutely implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to promote economic growth and stabilize market confidence.
Generally speaking, China's economic growth will slow down this year, and its inertia will decline in the first half of 2009, and it will begin to emerge from the shadow of the world economic recession in the second half. The international financial crisis bottomed out at the end of 2009, the economic crisis bottomed out around the end of 20 10, and it began to recover from 201to 20 12. The most important thing in the financial crisis is confidence. We believe in the government's ability to handle the crisis and have confidence in the fundamentals of China's economic development. The confidence of each of us is the best way to overcome the crisis, and we believe that this crisis will definitely become a new starting point for China's economic take-off.
Through this financial crisis, the imbalance of regional economic development, serious imbalance of industrial layout and imbalance of industrial structure has been changed. These problems plague every link of the whole economy, and the structural contradictions are prominent. The economic policy has long been dominated by foreign trade exports and investment, supplemented by domestic demand. When the world economy gets rid of "stagflation" and "imbalance", a new round of sustainable growth depends on the guidance of emerging economies and the arrival of new technological revolution. Therefore, China should actively face the current economic crisis, take practical and effective measures to deal with it, turn the crisis into an opportunity, let China stand firm in this crisis, let China connect with the world, face the economic crisis together, and be a responsible big country. Turn this crisis into a China classic.