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When will the RMB appreciate?
On the 9th, the exchange rate of RMB hit its biggest one-day increase in five years, because the central bank of China raised the central parity rate of RMB to the highest level in three weeks. 10, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.6450, which was 130 basis points higher than that on the 9th, a new high since the reform of foreign exchange earning. Speculation in financial markets is a political consideration for Beijing authorities during the G20 summit.

Bloomberg News and Dow Jones reported that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar soared by 0.5 1% on the 9th, the only time since RMB was decoupled from the US dollar in July 2005, and closed at 6.6480 yuan 1 US dollar, much higher than the previous day's 6.6438+0 yuan.

Since the People's Bank of China announced the reform of the exchange rate system in June this year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by 2.8%, and once stood at the highest price since 17 in mid-June.

On the 9th, the People's Bank of China set the central parity of RMB exchange rate at 6.6580 RMB pair 1 USD, which was 0. 17% higher than the previous day's 6.6692 RMB.

Chang Jian, an economist at Barclays Capital in China, said: "The Bank of China may want to allow the RMB to appreciate faster during the G20 meeting. This is the same as what we saw when the US Congress held a hearing on RMB in the week of September 15. 」

China foreign exchange dealers predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate gradually against the US dollar before the end of the year, but it may be a more volatile two-way floating.

A foreign exchange trader of an Asian bank in Shanghai said, "In recent trading days, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has fluctuated greatly, which may be due to the capital flow guided by the central bank and the market expectation that the RMB will appreciate further in the near future. 」

In addition, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China issued a press release on the 9th, reiterating that it will strengthen the management of foreign exchange business and severely crack down on the cross-border flow of "hot money".

After the United States announced the second quantitative easing policy last week, China expected more hot money to flow into China, so it took strict precautions. Ding Zhijie, Dean of the School of Finance of China University of International Business and Economics, pointed out in an exclusive interview with Reuters that the United States announced the implementation of monetary easing policy, and the world will face the risk of flooding liquidity, and China will most likely become the "hardest hit" for hot money inflows. In this context, a series of illegal foreign exchange policies announced by the foreign exchange bureau are aimed at strengthening the crackdown on hot money inflows.

The foreign exchange bureau pointed out that in order to combat the illegal inflow of "hot money", the Notice on Strengthening the Management of Foreign Exchange Business has been issued recently. There are seven main contents in the Notice, including: strengthening the verification of the authenticity of the remittance of funds raised by overseas listing, and reducing the proportion of foreign exchange received by processing materials through online verification of export collection and settlement of foreign exchange from 30% to 20%.