Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has continued to adopt a moderately tight monetary policy, and the momentum of monetary growth has stabilized at a high level. After entering May, the year-on-year growth rate dropped significantly (see figure 1). At the end of May, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 balance reached 17.5%, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than the end of last month and 2.7 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. M 1 balance increased by 18.6% year-on-year, decreased by 1.4 percentage points from the end of last month, and decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the same period of last year. Excluding seasonal factors, the annualized growth rate of the month-on-month in February at the end of May was 10%, which was 10.8 percentage points lower than the previous month and 7 percentage points lower than the annual control target of 17%.
Since August 23, 2003, the central bank used the "drastic medicine" of raising the statutory deposit reserve, the year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans reached the highest value of 23.9% at the end of August 2003, and began to decline gradually. Different from the previous two years, the year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans in the first half of this year showed a downward trend (see Figure 2). As of May this year, the year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans has declined for nine consecutive months. At the end of May, the year-on-year growth rate of RMB loan balance reached 18.6%, which was 1.3 percentage points lower than last month, 3. 1 percentage point lower than the same period of last year and 5.3 percentage points lower than the peak at the end of August. Excluding seasonal factors, the annual growth rate of RMB loans was 1 1%, down 7.5 percentage points from the previous month. In the first five months, RMB loans increased by1654.38+056.2 billion yuan, accounting for 44.5% of the annual control target (2.6 trillion yuan) set at the beginning of the year, which was/kloc-0.02 billion yuan less than the same period last year.
In economics, there is a relationship between money supply = base money × money multiplier. The adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio directly changed the currency multiplier. On April 25 this year, the differential deposit reserve ratio policy was implemented, and the statutory deposit reserve ratio was raised by 0.5 percentage points. These measures will directly reduce the currency multiplier. At the end of April, the M2 multiplier was 4.59, down 0.0 1 from last month and 0.02/from the same period last year. Due to the adjustment of the statutory deposit reserve ratio at the end of April, the impact on the currency multiplier has not yet appeared. It is expected that the currency multiplier will drop significantly in May.
In mid-May, the People's Bank of China, the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Further Strengthening the Coordination of Industrial Policies and Credit Policies to Control Credit Risks. With the joint efforts of government departments to implement the requirements of the Notice, the motivation of commercial banks to actively lend will be reduced, and the currency multiplier will be reduced accordingly. Recently, state-owned commercial banks, mainly CCB and BOC, are actively preparing for listing and will pay more attention to the requirements of capital adequacy ratio. In order to ensure the capital adequacy ratio of 8%, the state-owned commercial banks actively preparing for listing will decide the loan scale according to the capital scale, consciously reduce the growth momentum of loan issuance, and the lending behavior will change from active lending to prudent lending, thus promoting the decline of the money multiplier. In addition, from the experience of the previous two years, the money multiplier fell in the second half of the year (see Figure 3), and it can be expected that the money multiplier will also fall steadily this year.
Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has insisted on issuing central bank bills to recover the base currency, and increased the repurchase operation on May 12. As of June 3 this year, the central bank issued 4 1 sheet of central bank bills in the inter-bank market, carried out reverse repurchase operations 1 time, and conducted repurchase operations for 5 times. Affected by this, the base money balance gradually declined in the first three months of this year (see Figure 4). However, in April, the central bank raised the statutory deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. In order to ensure the reasonable liquidity of the market, the central bank's open market operation was weakened in late April. In April, the base money balance increased by 46 billion yuan compared with the previous month.
Second, the interest rate in the financial market is basically stable, and the liquidity of financial institutions remains sufficient.
1. The attitude of the central bank to withdraw funds is very firm.
Since the beginning of this year, open market operations have basically completely offset the money supply caused by foreign exchange holdings. The fundamental purpose of issuing central bank bills in the open market is to recover the base currency passively put in due to the increase of foreign exchange reserves. In the first four months of this year, the central bank withdrew a total of 505.28 billion yuan through the issuance of bills and repurchase, and the foreign exchange holdings increased by 396.5438+22.8 billion yuan in the same period. If the maturity of bills is considered, except for June 5438+ 10 and April, the issuance of bills by the central bank basically offsets all foreign exchange holdings (see the table below). In June, 5438+ 10, the main consideration was to ensure the liquidity of commercial banks during the Spring Festival, and in April, the statutory deposit reserve ratio was raised by 0.5 percentage points in line with the implementation of the differential deposit reserve policy. Considering that the position of financial institutions is relatively tight in the short term after the deposit reserve ratio is raised, the tightening force should not be so great that commercial banks face insufficient liquidity. On April 27th, the central bank even announced that it would stop the open market operation for a week.
The circulation of one-year notes is increasing. The term of central bank bills is 3 months, 6 months and 1 year, among which 1 year bills have the strongest capital locking ability. Since March, the central bank has intensively issued one-year bills, but after entering April, it basically stopped issuing half-year bills. As of June 4th, the central bank has continuously issued 15 one-year bills. The central bank cancelled the circulation of half-year bills, while the circulation of one-year bills continued to rise, which indicated that the central bank still intended to issue more governor bills and less short bills. On the one hand, it can reduce the pressure of monetary policy regulation this year, on the other hand, it also reflects the firm determination of the central bank to tighten monetary policy. In March alone, the circulation of one-year central bank bills reached 654.38+050 billion yuan, and its impact on the liquidity of financial institutions was equivalent to raising the deposit reserve ratio by one percentage point in a short time.
The bills issued by the central bank on May 18 were issued directionally for the first time, that is, special central bank bills were only issued to some commercial banks. The issuance amount of this special bill reaches 50 billion yuan, with a term of 1 year. The central bank issued special bills to some commercial banks for the first time, reflecting that the central bank began to shift from comprehensive supervision of financial institutions in the early stage to local supervision. Commercial banks that have been targeted to issue central bank bills basically have the nature of * * *, that is, from/kloc-0 to April this year, the loan growth rate is relatively fast, including two state-owned commercial banks, namely Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China, as well as joint-stock commercial banks such as Minsheng and China Merchants. Through this compulsory "apportionment" method, the central bank gives enough warning to banks that lend too much, that is, the central bank will take non-market means to limit the lending of some "commercial banks" when necessary.
Re-take the positive repurchase operation. On May 12, 2004, the central bank decided to increase the repurchase operation of open market business. From May 12, the central bank will issue central bank bills every Tuesday and carry out repurchase operations every Thursday.
On April 29, 2003, the central bank's open market operation room issued the same announcement, announcing that it would stop carrying out repurchase business in the open market and issue central bank bills every week instead. During the year, except for sporadic reverse repurchase and cash buyout, central bank bills were all monologues in the open market. After a year, the central bank is repurchasing and reappearing in the open market. On the one hand, the treasury bonds previously repurchased by the central bank have all been paid due, and the central bank already has a certain scale of treasury bonds in its hands; On the other hand, due to the large liquidity of central bank bills, the mid-year bill maturity peak is coming, and the central bank also needs more means to enrich the ways of withdrawing funds. This reflects the determination of the central bank to control the amount of money in the market, especially the growth of credit, through repeated open market operations.
2. The bidding method of central bank bills is switched between quantity bidding and price bidding to guide the interest rate of money market to remain stable.
The quantitative bidding method of central bank bills can often play a strong guiding role in the interest rate level of funds in the money market. After the central bank raised the statutory deposit reserve ratio 1 percentage point in 2003, the money market overreacted and the interest rate in the money market rose rapidly, which adversely affected the supply and demand of funds at the end of the year. To this end, the central bank changed the bidding method of central bank bills, and began to carry out quantitative bidding on June 165438+ 10/2, and the central bank directly set the price (interest rate). When bidding, the central bank announced that the interest rate was artificially set low. With the efforts of the central bank, the weighted average interest rates of interbank RMB lending and bond repurchase transactions began to decline after reaching 2.86% and 3. 1 1%, which is the highest level since 2000. In view of the successful fall of market interest rate after the Spring Festival and the loose trend of money market, the central bank resumed issuing central bank bills by price bidding on February 10, 2004. On March 25th, after the central bank announced the adoption of the differential deposit reserve system and the floating interest rate system for refinancing, on March 30th, in less than two months, the central bank changed the bidding method for central bank bills.
The issuance method of central bank bills has changed from price bidding to quantity bidding. This reflects that the core of the central bank's open market operation has shifted from simply withdrawing funds to giving consideration to guiding and controlling the interest rate level in the money market. The central bank changed to quantity bidding, deliberately reducing the yield of bills, guiding the stability of interest rates in the money market, and alleviating the impact of the adjustment of reserve ratio on the market.
On May 1 1, the central bank's bill issuance mode turned back to price bidding, which shows that the task of stabilizing market interest rates has come to an end.
Under the guidance of the central bank's open market operation, on April 25th this year, before and after the differential deposit reserve system was formally implemented and the statutory deposit reserve ratio was raised by 0.5 percentage point, the monthly weighted average interest rates of interbank lending and bond repurchase did not fluctuate as much as when the statutory deposit reserve ratio was raised by 1 percentage point last year, but remained basically stable (see Figure 5).
3. The liquidity of financial institutions is still sufficient.
Compared with the situation after the statutory deposit reserve ratio was raised by 1 percentage point in August last year, the interbank market was short of liquidity, the position was tight, and the interest rate in the interbank market soared. After the statutory deposit reserve ratio was raised by 0.5 percentage point in April this year, the market reaction was relatively calm and the liquidity of financial institutions remained sufficient. Mainly because, first of all, members of the interbank market have long expected that monetary policy will be further tightened, so they make preparations early and have sufficient funds at hand. Secondly, due to the increase of the statutory deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage point, financial institutions will reduce the available funds by about 1 1000 billion yuan at one time, but it is smaller than the scale of 1500 billion yuan in September last year. 1 100 billion yuan is only equivalent to the amount of money returned by the central bank for three consecutive weeks of open market operations, and the liquidity contraction of financial institutions is limited. Third, the central bank should cooperate with the open market operation, reduce the issuance of central bank bills and reduce the intensity of currency withdrawal. (Li Ruoyu National Information Center)