The economic evaluation of reserves is a complex problem involving a wide range. Due to space reasons, the methods and parameters of economic evaluation of reserves are not discussed in detail here, but only the evaluation contents and standards are expounded.
1. Financial evaluation
Financial evaluation is to analyze and calculate oil and gas reserves according to the current national fiscal and taxation system and current price system, and to investigate the feasibility of industrial development by analyzing benefits, expenses, profitability and repayment ability. Financial evaluation mainly includes investment estimation, annual investment arrangement, cost estimation and cost increase and decrease, financing method, interest calculation, sales revenue estimation, profitability analysis and uncertainty analysis.
Financial evaluation indicators include financial internal rate of return, financial net present value, investment payback period, average investment profit rate and average investment profit and tax rate.
(1) Calculation of financial evaluation index by static method
The total profit value (Rt) of the oilfield can be calculated according to the following formula:
Rt=Xt-It-Ct
Where: RT-the total profit value of oilfield development calculation period, ten thousand yuan; XT- Gross output value, namely sales revenue, 10,000 yuan; IT-total investment in exploration and development infrastructure, RMB 10,000; CT-total cost, 10,000 yuan.
The static return on investment (Rc) can be calculated as follows:
Rc=F/It=(X-Ca-T 1-T2)/It
Where: RC-static investment return rate,%; F-annual net income, ten thousand yuan; X- annual sales revenue, ten thousand yuan; Ca-annual operating expenses, ten thousand yuan; T 1- annual sales tax, ten thousand yuan; T2—— Annual resource tax, 10,000 yuan.
The static payback period (pt) can be calculated as follows:
pt=I/Rc
The calculation method of investment profit (Tp) is as follows:
Oil and gas field development geology
In which:-Annual average profit value, 10,000 yuan.
Investment profit and tax rate (Tpt) can be calculated according to the following formula:
Oil and gas field development geology
In which:-Annual average profit and tax, 10,000 yuan.
(2) Using dynamic method to calculate financial evaluation index.
The financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is the discount rate that the accumulated net cash flow value of each year in the calculation period is equal to zero, which can be calculated by the following formula:
Oil and gas field development geology
In which: CI-cash inflow, 10,000 yuan; Cash outflow, ten thousand yuan; (ci-co)t—— the net cash flow in the t year, 10,000 yuan; N- calculation period, a.
Under the condition of ic (benchmark rate of return), the dynamic payback period (pi) can be calculated according to the following formula:
Oil and gas field development geology
Where: b—— the number of years when the cumulative net cash flow starts to show positive value, a; —— Absolute value of accumulated net present value in the previous year; NPVB-Discounted value of net cash flow in the second year, 10,000 yuan.
The financial net present value (FNPV) is the sum of the annual net cash flows converted into the present value of the first year of the construction period according to the benchmark rate of return (ic) set by the industry of the project. Can press type calculation:
Oil and gas field development geology
The net present value ratio (FNPVR) is the ratio of the net present value of the project to the present value of the total investment. Can press type calculation:
FNPVR=FNPV/Ip
Where: IP- the present value of total investment.
2. National economic evaluation
National economic evaluation is to calculate and analyze the cost and contribution of the country in the development of oil and gas fields industry from the overall interests of the national economy, so as to investigate the economic rationality of investment behavior. The evaluation content should not only calculate the economic benefits of oil and gas fields, but also consider the resource benefits, ecological benefits and environmental benefits, and comprehensively calculate the impact of oil and gas fields on the national economy in the process of industrial development. Macro evaluation indicators can be calculated by economic cash flow statement. The main indicators include economic internal rate of return (EIRR), economic net present value (ENPV), economic net present value rate (ENPVR), net return on investment (NBR), economic net present value of foreign exchange (ENPVF) and economic transaction cost. For more information, please refer to related books.
3. Uncertainty analysis of economic evaluation of oil and gas reserves
The data of economic evaluation comes from prediction and estimation, so there is some uncertainty. In order to analyze the influence of uncertain factors on economic evaluation, it is necessary to carry out uncertainty analysis, predict the risk degree that the project can bear, and determine the financial and economic reliability of the project.
(1) break-even analysis
Break-even analysis is mainly to find out the break-even point after the project is put into production and analyze the adaptability of the project to changes in market demand.
The break-even point (BEP) can be calculated according to the following formula:
Oil and gas field development geology
In which: CT-annual fixed total cost, 10,000 yuan; CV-annual variable total cost, ten thousand yuan; X- annual sales revenue, ten thousand yuan; T 1- annual sales tax, ten thousand yuan.
The lower the breakeven point, the stronger the project's ability to adapt to market changes and the stronger its ability to resist risks, which can be represented by the breakeven analysis diagram (Figure 7- 15).
Figure 7- 15 breakeven analysis chart
(2) Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis is to find out the sensitive factors and determine their influence degree by analyzing and predicting the influence of the main factors of the project on economic evaluation indicators when they change. The sensitive factors of a project can be a single factor or multiple factors. The sensitivity of a project to a certain factor can be expressed as the change range of the evaluation index when the factor changes in a certain proportion, or as the maximum range of a certain factor when the evaluation index reaches a critical point (such as the financial internal rate of return is equal to the financial benchmark interest rate), that is, the change limit. Beyond this limit, the project is considered infeasible.
4. Evaluation criteria for economic indicators of oil and gas reserves
Through financial and national economic evaluation, the economic index of an oil and gas field put into development is calculated, and the comparison table is 7- 1 1, which can evaluate the feasibility of putting reserves into development.
Table 7- 1 1 Evaluation criteria of economic indicators of oil and gas reserves
sequential
Through the evaluation of technical and economic indicators of proven reserves, decision makers and oil and gas field development designers have a clear understanding of the availability and economic benefits of reserves. On the one hand, it is convenient for decision makers to make reasonable investment decisions, on the other hand, it is convenient for development designers to make reasonable and efficient development plans.