What is worthy of attention in the near future is the economic situation in Japan and the trend of the yen exchange rate. Although Japan occupies a limited proportion in the world economy, it is still the second largest economic power in the world in terms of economic strength and scale, and the yen is still the third largest dominant currency, which has great influence and containment on Asian countries and regions in particular. At present, Japan's economic and political situation is not conducive to the stability and adjustment of the yen exchange rate, and the weakening and influence on exchange rate support is more obvious. On the one hand, the continuous decline of the yen exchange rate is caused by the difference between the US and Japan's economy and interest rates; On the other hand, it is the result of Japan's own deterioration and inefficiency. At present, the basic support of the international currency exchange rate is still the internal economic environment and monetary policy, while Japan's economic fundamentals are difficult to support the stability of the exchange rate level, and its currency is in a passive and powerless position. It is embodied in four aspects:

1, the influence of self-confidence and psychology. Internally, the weakening of trust in the current government, the interference of political instability and the low ability to control policies, especially the public opinion that the current government may resign, have been interfering with and affecting the recovery of Japanese economic confidence; Externally, the economic and financial situation in the United States and Europe has obviously weakened, and the effect of policy adjustment lags behind that in the United States and Europe, especially the passive follow-up of interest rate adjustment, which not only shows the difficulty of the economic and financial situation, but also further blows the support of confidence and psychology, thus seriously frustrating the confidence of funds, and the market inertia psychology drives the yen to fall again and again.

2. The deterioration of the actual situation. In the third quarter of 2000, Japan's economy fell into recession again, which not only damaged the credibility of the Japanese government, but also brought greater pressure to economic adjustment and recovery. In addition, the international environment in which the American economy has obviously slowed down has changed, reducing Japan's exports and increasing the stability of Japan's economic recovery. More seriously, Japan's domestic consumption is difficult to start, and it has always been in a downturn. In 2000, residents' consumption expenditure declined for seven consecutive months, retail sales continued to decline, and the price index continued to decline, which aggravated the shadow of economic contraction. However, with the increase of business failures and the aggravation of corporate debts, the investment prospects are bleak and deteriorating, and the prosperity index of large enterprises has dropped sharply to 2.0%.

3. Rigid institutional structure. The uncertainty and controversy of Japanese officials' comments on the recent performance of the yen indicate that the Japanese economy lacks vitality, motivation and competitiveness. Especially in the face of the economic slowdown in the United States, Japan's exports have been significantly impacted, and the government can only rely on currency depreciation to boost exports and stimulate the economy, while the economic system and enterprise mechanism have been shelved, making it difficult to reform and adjust.

4. Weakening of policy interests. What is more prominent is that the Bank of Japan's follow-up with the Federal Reserve has not only seriously hurt the role and benefits of Japanese policies, but also seriously affected the weakening of the Japanese government's policy regulation ability and the low technical level. In particular, there are obvious cracks in the collocation of fiscal policy and monetary policy. Japanese government officials have said that Japan's financial situation is close to collapse and it is necessary to carry out a large number of financial reforms. The indulgence of fiscal policy leads to a narrow space for government regulation, while the current monetary policy lacks flexibility and initiative. There is no room for interest rate regulation, its practical significance and function are weakened, and the leverage of interest rate exists in name only. Although Japan has abundant foreign exchange reserves and financial support to intervene in the foreign exchange market, the role of funds lags far behind the policy benefits, and Japan is not just a simple exchange rate issue, but a complexity of various comprehensive economic and financial issues, which cannot be solved by simple funds.

Based on comprehensive analysis and judgment, Japan's future economic and financial prospects are still uncertain, and risk expectations are gradually increasing. The trend of "bad luck" will increase the risk of yen depreciation. The Japanese government should not only think about economic recovery from the role of exchange rate, but also control and choose the trend and orientation of exchange rate from the perspective of capital confidence and market psychology. Comprehensive management and reform are imminent. To this end, the weakness of the yen will continue to appear in the short term and may be further aggravated.