Recently, the stock and bond double kill, the bond market fell extensively triggered at the same time the bank wealth management fixed income configuration of more than 90%, and the bank wealth management net value led to the market became very sensitive, retail investors and the majority of the scramble to redeem, redemption and triggered the bank wealth management fell again because of the short-term redemption of the bank wealth management does not have a lot of liquidity, it is necessary to discount the sale of assets, stampede aggravation, the retailer is more to look at the wind to escape. Fluid logic, there is nothing new under the sun.
1. This year, the bank wealth management two rounds of large-scale broken net
The first round was in March, when the stock market fell the most fierce, when the market tormented me almost Buddha, of course, but also due to the stock market adjustment, triggering wealth management products appear large-scale broken net, because the wealth management products, although the configuration of the equity is not much, but the proportion of equity equities and public equity funds configuration is also trillions of magnitude!
The result of the double killing of stocks and bonds is that the net value of bank wealth management products has fallen significantly.WIND shows that as of November 15, among 30,000 wealth management products, there have been more than 10,000 wealth management products with negative returns in recent weeks.
According to the incomplete statistics of the Founder Securities: the net value performance statistics of November 15 compared with the end of October, nearly 8,000 fixed-income financial products, 2600+ net income products, 2600+ net income products, 2600+ net income products, 2600+ net income products, 2600+ net income products, 2600+ net income products, 2600+ net income products. financial products, 2600 + net value fell. Among them, there are 22 products net value fell more than -1.00%, fell more than -2.00% *** counted 4 products.
Two characteristics, one is the net value of the decline in financial management of a wide range of products, there are close to one-third of the products have fallen. But the decline is relatively limited. Only 22 products fell more than 1%, the decline is not so intense, but also changed the three views of the bank financial investors, after all, buy bank financial investors have not been completely transformed from the inherent impression of the rigid exchange rate, capital preservation, but then again even if the stock fund investors chasing after the fall is also very common.
2. Why the bond market fell
Estimates to see, the end of the year is generally the time of the economic sprint target, there will generally be a good for the economy out of the big policy, such as real estate finance 16 support policy property market finance 16 introduced, involving insurance delivery building, loan extension and other aspects of financing, what is the positive significance of? The fundamentals of the central economic work conference at the end of the year, the fundamentals of the formation of over-optimistic expectations. At this point interest rates have a rising base,
But at the same time the general end of the year market funds will be tighter, we all have to use, once the market liquidity tightened a little bit, interest rates went up, the result is:
Bond prices fell, the specific logic you can see this article I wrote before, although the background and strategy does not quite apply, but the inside will be the logic of the change in the price of the bond you can look at! . Is it a good idea to buy bond funds in the near future?
Most bond allocations that use leveraged strategies won't work, the returns can't pocket the leveraged rates anymore, and eventually there will be selling, and dominoes may happen. The ones that run fast are liquid assets, such as open-ended public funds and bank wealth management.
3. How to conduct to the financial broken net, stampede how to happen
Because the bond market fell, the bond fund and bank wealth management fell too suddenly, it triggered a large-scale redemption. Public funds and bank wealth management investors look dumbfounded. Bonds can be so down, while superimposed on the rise and fall of the bond market logic is not clear, the net value fell, then the redemption, the more down the more redemption, the more redemption the more fall.
In fact, this wave of redemption is basically retail investors, a look at the fixed income is not fixed? How can it fall so much? I'm not sure if you're going to be able to do that.
The data show that the average size of financial products fell about 20%, a large number of sell-offs, that's how the redemption, because a large number of open-ended financial management, the retailer redemption institutions must give him redemption, and the retailer's redemption, which will cause the financial management and debt fund assets are sold,
At the same time, bank financial management is a large number of outsourcing nested, financial management of the investment management ability is not, will be entrusted to the Asset management organizations to manage, while a large number of nested products also invested in a large number of bonds and funds. Bank wealth management is redeemed, it will redeem wealth management investment funds, but also lead to a large number of commissioned products of the bank wealth management package will also redeem their sets of public funds.
Public funds, in addition to being redeemed by retail investors, but also due to other institutional investors are retail investors wrapped encountered by institutional investors to redeem.
At the same time for currency funds and bank wealth management among the cash management wealth management is also deviation assessment
When the shadow pricing to determine the net asset value of cash management products and amortized cost method of calculating the net asset value of a positive deviation of the absolute value of 0.5%, the administrator should be suspended from accepting the subscription and within five trading days will be positive deviation of the absolute value of the adjustment to within 0.5%. When the absolute value of negative deviation reaches 0.25%, the Manager shall adjust the absolute value of negative deviation to within 0.25% within 5 trading days.
If you can't adjust it
When the absolute value of the degree of negative deviation exceeds 0.5% for two consecutive trading days, the manager should use fair value valuation methods to adjust the book value of the portfolio holdings (don't use the amortized cost method in the future, it's an absolute disaster for the investment managers of this type of product), or take measures such as suspending the acceptance of all redemption applications and terminating the product contract to carry out property liquidation and other measures (Barbie q now).
So the investment manager will need to buy risky assets from, ironing out the degree of deviation, buy more base big slightly ironed out, but the market generally fell under the bad get ah.
Finally, because the market itself is relatively fragile, especially encountered a short period of huge redemptions, was redeemed to get carried away, it happened under the side. A series of negative feedback, it formed a market stampede.