Market analysis mainly from three aspects:
1, policy orientation
2, external environment
3, internal environment
First of all, or first of all, analyze the policy, the policy makers are basically based on the internal and external environment to formulate, because China's think tanks are indeed very good, please will not be to doubt their level, the general direction is difficult to wrong.
Funds and A-shares, to say the macro point, a large part of the money earned liquidity and monetary increase, that is, how much money in the market.
For example, in 2018, deleveraging, you fund managers in how bullish, are going to lose, just less than who lost, if you survive 2018, the whole 2019, 2020 most of the money earned money easing, this year, you will rarely see a loss of the fund, right, 2019 casually do basically all thirty or forty.
Keyword "policy does not turn sharply"
Chinese is really a profound meaning, in order to this sentence, I remember the circle out of a lot of points of view, I personally believe that the policy does not turn sharply means that "will turn", but just I'm not sure if you're going to be able to get a good deal on this.
When to turn, mainly to see the recovery of economic indicators and external changes, so this is a variable, it is difficult to have any economist can predict, the best way is to real-time not forget to watch the news broadcasts and click on the central bank WeChat and official website to see.
If there are signs of a turn, you have to start gradually reducing your positions.
Currently not a sharp turn of the factors I think are mainly the following points, on the contrary, if the following points to resume, then need to be cautious:
1, the external environment, the epidemic continues to spread, the vaccine, if the current production capacity, at least until the middle of 2021, in order to cover a large scale, and then there is also to consider a vaccine effectiveness of the problem in case of viral mutation is too bullish? During this period, large-scale money printing certainly can not stop, why the U.S. stock market this year so ferocious, mainly brought about by liquidity, if the epidemic eases next year, the U.S. stock market will return to rationality. The U.S. empire is printing, are we sitting ducks?
2, the exposure of the financial crisis often with a lag. 2020, may rely on a lot of means of suppression, but it does not mean that he does not explode, specifically what is the mine this time will not go into detail.
3, part of the economic data is not ideal. 2021 the first two quarters of the GDP nominal growth rate will be at a high level, but the actual level of GDP is still difficult to reach or exceed the epidemic before. As of the fourth quarter, the social zero growth rate has only recovered to 4.8% year-on-year, which is still a big gap from the 8% before the epidemic.
So, our policy makers, then, began to study various response policies.
First of all, the Central Economic Work Conference, CICC did a keyword statistic that I think is pretty obvious.