A few months before listing, the market value of shell once exceeded 600 billion, exceeding the sum of Vanke and Country Garden.
Unexpectedly, after entering 202 1, the anti-monopoly "Sword of Damocles" hung high, and then the founder Zuo Hui died, and the China Stock Exchange suffered a regulatory storm, and the real estate regulation became more and more severe.
In the short term, the shell has encountered an unprecedented crisis, investors have been voting with their feet, and the stock price has been directly halved in the past 20 days. Since the high point, Shell's share price has fallen by more than 400 billion.
Under the pressure of industry policy, Shell handed over a fairly good interim report.
Judging from the overall situation in the first half of the year, shells still maintained rapid growth. For example, GTV has reached an all-time high. According to financial data, the GTV of shells reached 2.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 72.3%.
In terms of specific projects, as of June 30 this year, the GTV of shell stock house business was 1.33 trillion yuan, up by 7.1%year-on-year, and the GTV of new house business reached 8.41.70 billion yuan, up by 70.7% year-on-year. In addition, the income of Shell's emerging and other businesses also increased by 68.9% year-on-year, exceeding 654.38+02 billion yuan.
This means that the new house transaction of shell platform has accounted for nearly one tenth. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the sales of commercial housing nationwide reached 929,365,438+billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.9%.
Take a closer look, there have been some subtle changes in Shell's financial data in the second quarter.
The financial report shows that Shell's net revenue in the second quarter of this year was RMB 24.2 billion, up 20% year-on-year, and its net profit was RMB1160,000, down 6 1% from RMB 2.839 billion in the same period last year. The adjusted net profit was 654.38+0.638 billion yuan, which was also lower than 2,955.438+0 billion yuan in the same period last year.
Some real estate analysts said that the main reason for the decline in net profit in the second quarter was the high base in the same period last year. Affected by the epidemic, many consumers' decisions in the first quarter of last year were postponed to the second quarter.
The biggest change occurred in the income structure in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the transaction service income of shell second-hand houses was 9.6 billion yuan, up only 4% year-on-year, the transaction service income of new houses was 65.438+0.39 billion yuan, up 365.438+0.9% year-on-year, and the income of emerging services and other services was 660 million yuan, up 50.6% year-on-year.
This is also the first time that the single quarterly income of second-hand housing service is lower than that of new housing transaction service after the listing of shells. In the first quarter of this year, the transaction service income of shell second-hand houses was still 654.38+002 billion yuan, slightly exceeding the transaction service income of new houses by 9.9 billion yuan.
The reason for this change is that second-hand housing transactions are becoming the main battlefield of real estate regulation. After Shenzhen introduced the second-hand housing reference price system in February this year, Chengdu, Xi 'an and other cities followed suit, and then Ningbo, Shanghai, Shaoxing and other cities also introduced policies to control the second-hand housing price.
And in the industry's view, the regulation policy for second-hand housing will be more widely spread, which will continue to have an impact on the shell business.
Some intermediary analysts told Wall Street that the recent introduction of the reference price policy for second-hand houses in various places has greatly restricted the listing of houses, which will completely break the usual practice of intermediaries headed by shells in the pricing of second-hand houses, and the listing price of shells will be forced to go offline.
Because many policies have been implemented since July, this means that the impact on Shell's second-quarter financial report is not great, and Shell will begin to face a real test in the third quarter.
The shell is not optimistic in the short term. Shell predicts that the revenue in the third quarter of 2002/kloc-0 will be between 654.38+0.45 billion yuan and 654.38+0.55 billion yuan, which is about 24.6%~29.4% lower than the same period in 2020.
Xu Tao, Chief Financial Officer of Shell, said that it is expected that the GTV of the new housing market will decrease in the second half of the year. However, he believes that it will be more difficult for developers to obtain customers in the second half of the year, and they will rely more on brokerage channels.
Shell, a new star just listed in August last year, took a roller coaster ride in less than a year, and its market value dropped from the highest of 600 billion to less than 200 billion.
In the past few months, Shell has been under multiple pressures from the supervision of China Stock Exchange, anti-monopoly and real estate regulation, and its share price has fallen with the whole China Stock Exchange.
The innovative GTV also failed to make up for investors' concerns about shell development. After the announcement of the financial report, the first transaction opened, and the share price of the shell fell by more than 15%, setting a new low since listing.
As the "first real estate online trading platform", Shell has been influenced by the anti-monopoly tide of the Internet platform. There are also doubts in the industry, saying that the VIP agreement of shells is suspected of either choice.
On August 12, Shell held a conference call with investors. Regarding whether Shell is suspected of monopoly, Peng Yongdong said that in the past period of time, Shell actively cooperated with relevant departments, made serious self-examination and rectification, and got many opportunities for high-density communication and reporting with relevant departments, which not only won the affirmation of relevant authorities, but also made continuous thinking on internal attribution.
Xu Tao added that "at present, the company has not accepted any formal inspection related to antitrust issues", but Shell has submitted the self-inspection report in time.
In addition, in the high-pressure cycle regulation of the real estate industry, the income mainly comes from the shell of new and second-hand housing transactions. In the case that the transaction price and quantity of housing are "strangled", its performance, stock price and market expectation will be directly affected.
Shell tubes rarely respond to rumors of agency fee adjustment. According to this rumor, the agency fee will be reduced to three times the local social wage.
Xu Tao said that he was shocked by this rumor. After communicating and verifying with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development clearly responded that it did not know such news before.
Xu Tao believes that the regulatory policy is more about improving the standardization of the real estate transfer transaction process and helping the market to standardize development. In this context, it is obvious who will benefit and who will face challenges. I am not worried about this, and I fully support and support it.
According to the CICC research report, the intensification of the real estate market rectification and the phased decline in transaction volume will accelerate the clearing of small and medium-sized real estate intermediaries, and the service premium of compliance head institutions will become more prominent.
For a huge shell, what needs to be considered is not the fluctuation of market value and performance in the short term, but how to cross the cycle and achieve development in a longer historical perspective.
In the past 20 years, with the urbanization of China and the outbreak of the real estate market, Shell gained its own model and "territory" and grew into the first unicorn. But how can it face the more distant future when it stands in the present?
In Peng Yongdong's view, the real estate in China has gone through four stages, and the policy regulation is to smooth the cycle.
Generally speaking, the real estate industry has a cycle every three years, such as 2008, 20 1 1 year, 20 14 years, 20 17 years, and at the end of 2020, when housing prices fluctuate, corresponding suppression policies will be introduced. "Whenever the market equilibrium is destroyed, there will be corresponding policies, and the market will gradually cool down until the next cycle."
20-year-old shells have experienced these cycles and grown. Therefore, Peng Yongdong judged that the adjustment of the real estate market in the short term will not change consumers' long-term yearning and demand for a better life. Shells will also look for opportunities to break through market fluctuations and create value for a long time to come, as they have experienced in the past 20 years.
At present, the real estate industry is putting on a tight spell from the financial source, and a brand-new cycle has just begun from the development end to the consumption end. Shells obviously can't take the old road, but also find the "second growth curve" like other real estate enterprises.
Peng Yongdong introduced that the company's development focus this year lies in the second track. The second track he mentioned is the development of new business including home improvement. In June, Shell spent 8 billion yuan to acquire Shengdu Jiezhuang, and heavily invested in C2C decoration business.
However, judging from the current financial data, the income from emerging businesses and other businesses accounts for less than 3% of the total income, and it cannot grow into the pillar business of the company in the short term.
The future of shells is not so easy. At present, Evergrande, Country Garden, Vanke, Longhu and other industry giants have set their sights on the "real estate online" business, and actively laid out their plans to share the advantageous market of shells; The so-called conic business is also a "narrow door", and there is no mature model at present.
Shells are destined to be pathfinders forever. Perhaps, this is exactly what Zuo Hui said, "Do the difficult and right thing".