Wen Ren Zeping Hua Yanxue Liang Ying Li Xiaotong
Events
Value-added of industry above designated size increased by 35.1% year-on-year in January-February, and 7.3% year-on-year in December 2020;
Fixed-asset investment (excluding agriculture) increased by 35.0% year-on-year in January-February, and by 2.9% year-on-year;
Real estate development investment increased by 38.3% year-on-year in January-February, and by 7.0% year-on-year in January-December 2020;
Total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 33.8% year-on-year in January-February, and by 4.6% year-on-year in December 2020;
Exports (in dollars) increased by 60.6% year-on-year in January-February, and by 18.1% year-on-year in the previous year; imports 22.2% y/y, vs. 6.5% y/y;
Feb CPI -0.2% y/y, vs. -0.3% y/y; Feb PPI 1.7% y/y, vs. 0.3% y/y rise.
Interpretation
First, the core view: the economic recovery into the top range, inflation expectations rise, standing on the liquidity inflection point
We maintain the previous judgment: around the first quarter of 2021 is the top of the economy, followed by a return to potential growth rate, the growth rate before high and then low. China's economic cycle is shifting from recovery to overheating and stagflation, with rising inflation expectations and structural asset price bubbles, and we may be standing at a cyclical inflection point in broad liquidity. (Reference: "China's Macro Outlook 2021" "We may be standing on the inflection point of liquidity") 1, economic K-type recovery, the carnival of the few economic K-type recovery of the new phenomenon is worthy of vigilance, on the surface of the total economy is recovering, but masks a lot of deep structural facts, the most important of these phenomena is that over the past year, in the global stock market, housing prices hit record highs, commodity prices soared Against the backdrop of a grim employment situation, small and micro-enterprises are experiencing difficulties in their operations, residents' real incomes are falling, and consumption is sluggish. This K-shaped recovery of the economy brought about by pure reliance on monetary stimulus has directly led to inflation among the rich and deflation among the poor, as well as the deterioration of the social structure of the economy. The negative effects of over-reliance on monetary releases have become more and more obvious, and the K-shaped economic recovery is nothing more than an orgy for the few. Not only have the majority of people at the bottom of the pyramid failed to enjoy the improvement in employment and incomes brought about by the economic recovery, but on the contrary, the rise in housing prices, stock prices and inflation has led to a decline in the social situation, which has led to a series of deep-rooted problems such as the prevalence of populism, anti-globalization, the solidification of social strata, a decline in the fertility rate, and a decline in social vitality. This has led to a series of deep-rooted problems such as the prevalence of populism, anti-globalization, the solidification of social strata, the decline of fertility rates, and the decline of social vitality. Therefore, the promotion of reforms, scientific and technological innovations, and the regulation of income distribution are becoming global challenges in the future. China is actively promoting the normalization of monetary policy, the "two sessions" and the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasize innovation and regulation of income distribution, and is on the right path, but we must also fully estimate the internal and external challenges.
2, China's economic recovery into the top range, the recovery momentum marginal slowdown, but may be more resilient supply side, industrial production high growth, stronger than the demand side.
Driven by the high export boom, the value added of industry above designated size in January-February increased by 35.1% year-on-year, 16.9% more than the same period in 2019, and the two-year average growth rate of 8.1%, which is at a higher growth rate level in recent years; the value added of industry above designated size in February increased by 0.69% chained to the same period last year.From January to February, the national production index of the service industry increased by 31.1%, up 14.1% from January-February 2019, with a two-year average growth of 6.8%.
On the demand side, among the troika, exports maintained high growth, real estate investment was more resilient, infrastructure and manufacturing investment was weak, and consumption remained sluggish.
Under the influence of sustained repair of external demand and low base, China's exports (in US dollars) grew 60.6% year-on-year in January-February, exceeding the expected high growth. Real estate investment accumulated 38.3% year-on-year, up 15.7% from the same period in 2019, and a two-year average of 7.6% year-on-year; infrastructure investment (including water, electricity and gas) accumulated 35.0% year-on-year, down 1.3% from the same period in 2019, and a two-year average of 0.7%; and manufacturing investment accumulated 37.3% year-on-year, down 5.9% from the same period in 2019, and a two-year average of 3% year-on-year. Total retail sales of social consumption goods increased 33.8% year-on-year, up 6.4% from the same period in 2019, with a two-year average growth rate of 3.2%.
Looking ahead, 1) the period of rapid growth in infrastructure investment is over. Infrastructure investment is a typical counter-cyclical hedging force; with the gradual recovery of the economy, the need for counter-cyclical regulation of infrastructure has declined sharply, superimposed on the local financial pressures, squeezing the space for infrastructure spending.2) January-February real estate enterprises to accelerate the return of funds through price cuts, promotions and other policies. Real estate short-term look at the financial, with the return to normalization of monetary policy since May-June 2020, marginal tightening, the future of real estate sales and investment are facing downward pressure. However, taking into account the higher land acquisition in 2020 and the power of long term rental housing in 2021, real estate investment is expected to be more resilient. Real estate long-term look at the population, regional differentiation will be the mainstream of the future.3) The high growth of exports is difficult to sustain, with the large-scale use of vaccines, Europe and the United States to ease the epidemic, as well as the accelerated repair of the global economy, the gap between supply and demand will be improved .
4) The employment situation is grim, small and micro-enterprises are having difficulties operating, and residents' incomes are declining, leading to a consumer downturn. 1.48 million people were newly employed in cities and towns across the country in January-February. the national urban surveyed unemployment rate in February was 5.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to December last year. Among them, the surveyed unemployment rate for people aged 25-59 was 5.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from December last year.
3. External environment improved. Benefiting from the better prevention and control of overseas epidemics, the U.S. fiscal stimulus, the global economic recovery is expected to be strong; the European and American economies are expected to accelerate the repair around the second quarter.
Global new crown case day new inflection point has appeared, Europe and the United States vaccination accelerated.
Global single-day new cases in early January inflection point, the U.S. and Europe and most of the epidemic serious economies have been inflection point. Global vaccination is advancing steadily, with China, the US, the UK, and Europe leading the world in vaccination speed. The United States and the United Kingdom, for example, the current U.S. and U.K. vaccination rate of 2.17 million and 350,000, respectively, the cumulative vaccination of 92.09 million and 23.52 million, which is projected to be about the second to third quarter to reach the level of 70% immunization.
The U.S. passed a $1.9 trillion
new fiscal stimulus bill on March 6, local time. The bill includes $1,400 per person in bailout checks, $300 per week in unemployment benefits until September 6, $350 billion in state aid subsidies, $34 billion in Affordable Care Act subsidies, and $14 billion in subsidies for new crown vaccines.
4. Inflation expectations are on the rise, and currently moderate overall.
February CPI fell 0.2% year-on-year, narrowing 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; 0.6% from the previous month, down 0.4 percentage points. PPI rose 1.7% year-on-year, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; 0.8% from the previous month, down 0.2 percentage points.
The main logic of the current price rise is the global economic recovery, supply and demand gap, global low interest rates; the European and American economies are expected to reach a controllable state in the second to third quarter of the epidemic, the economic repair gradually accelerated, lifting inflation. However, China's economic recovery into the top range, the marginal slowdown in demand, coupled with the downward spiral of the pig cycle, hedge against the impact of imported inflation, inflation is expected to rush to a high point in the middle of the year, the economic fundamentals and the monetary environment is not enough to support a sharp rise in inflation.
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon at all times and in all places. The global over-reliance on monetary watering over the past years has led to deflation for the poor, inflation for the rich, and a K-shaped economic recovery. Monetary deflation is not a panacea, and future global competition is essentially a reform war.
5, the monetary policy shift "stable currency + tight credit", liquidity inflection point confirmed.
Looking ahead to 2021, monetary policy is likely to continue its steady and neutral tone, with the monetary and credit portfolio as a whole presenting a pattern of "stable currency + structural tight credit". 2021, around the first quarter, with the top of the economic recovery coming, inflation is expected to rise, and monetary policy is returning to normal. As the top of the economic recovery zone is approaching around 1Q2021, inflation is expected to rise, monetary policy will return to normalization, credit policy will be structurally tightened, and the liquidity inflection point will be confirmed.
The current round of monetary policy normalization process began in May 2020, when the narrow liquidity inflection point began to appear. Subsequently, in July and November 2020, M2, social financing growth has peaked, broad liquidity inflection point appeared, liquidity down cycle trend established.
Since the end of 2020, due to the sustained economic recovery, rising inflation expectations, rising housing prices in local hotspot cities, and the exposure of local debt risks, the central bank and financial regulators have begun to structurally tighten the financial and credit policies in three major directions, such as real estate financing, local debt, and shadow banking:
1) Strengthening real estate macro-prudential management, the implementation of the three red lines, real estate loan concentration management system.
2) standardize local government debt management, prevent and resolve the hidden debt risk of local government financing platform.
3) Governance of financial chaos, the formal end of the transition period of the new rules for capital management in 2021, and the promotion of healthy and standardized development of shadow banking. It is expected that the future of real estate financing, local debt financing, shadow bank financing is facing a slowdown, and credit tightening has brought about a strengthening of the liquidity inflection point.
6. Suggestions: It is advisable to keep the monetary policy steady and neutral.
Precisely grasp the strength and rhythm, do not create artificial economic ups and downs. At the structural level, liquidity is accurately invested in infrastructure and the real economy, especially in industries seriously affected by the epidemic, small and medium-sized micro-enterprises, private enterprises, manufacturing, high-tech and other areas.
The structural effect of fiscal policy is better than that of monetary policy, and we should continue to focus on infrastructure, especially new infrastructure, to create a new engine for China's economy. Responding to the great changes that have not occurred in a hundred years, the seven reforms as a breakthrough, to open a new cycle, a new pattern:
1) vigorously promote the " new infrastructure", to create a new engine of China's economy, including the 5G infrastructure, big data centers
2) Accelerate the promotion of a new type of urbanization led by city clusters metropolitan areas, with people and land linked and factors flowing.
3) As soon as possible, the full release of fertility, China's aging problem of childlessness has become increasingly serious, really can not first release the three children.
4) open up the capital market and scientific and technological innovation "double cycle", to strengthen scientific and technological self-reliance, the capital market money to support scientific and technological innovation of the great powers and "neck" technology attack.
5) Large-scale tax cuts and fee reductions, shifting from piecemeal and preferential tax cuts to blanket and universal tax cuts, and comprehensively lowering corporate income tax, manufacturing VAT, and personal income tax rates to enhance the sense of gain for enterprises and residents.
6) Take the trade friction between China and the United States as an opportunity to vigorously promote opening up to the outside world.
7) Establish a new long-term statehood strategy - new strategy, the key issue that China needs to address is a new statehood strategy ("new strategy"), that is, on the basis of a clear understanding of the trends of the world's political and economic situation in the next few decades, a new strategy for the future.
Second, industrial production is growing at a high rate
Influenced by the low base, the value-added of industry above designated size in January-February increased by 35.1% year-on-year, up 16.9% from the same period in 2019, and the two-year average growth rate was 8.1%.
In January-February, 40 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth in value-added; 565 out of 612 products saw year-on-year growth.
High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries grew faster. 49.2% in January-February, up 36.1 percentage points from December last year.
January-February general-purpose equipment, special-purpose equipment, automobiles, transportation equipment such as iron, ship and aviation, electrical machinery equipment and electronic equipment increased by 62.4%, 59.2%, 70.9%, 48.9%, 69.4%, and 48.5% year-on-year, respectively.
Third, fixed asset investment structural differentiation
January-February fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth of 35.0%, compared with the same period in 2019, an increase of 3.5%, the two-year average growth rate of 1.7%.
By investment body, the cumulative private fixed asset investment in January-February was 36.4% year-on-year, and the cumulative fixed asset investment by state-controlled enterprises was 32.9% year-on-year.
High-tech industries and social sector investment grew faster than all investment.
Investment in high-tech industries in January-February increased by 50.1% year-on-year; among them, investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 50.3% and 49.8% respectively. In the high-tech manufacturing industry, investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing, medical equipment and instrumentation manufacturing increased by 99.5% and 66.6% respectively; in the high-tech service industry, investment in e-commerce services, R&D and design services increased by 88.4% and 85.3% respectively. The investment in social sector increased by 48.0% year-on-year, of which the investment in health and education increased by 63.0% and 53.0% respectively.
Fourth, real estate investment and sales grew sharply
January-February commercial real estate sales area and sales cumulative year-on-year, respectively, 104.9% and 133.4%, a big year-on-year increase, even compared to the same period of 2019, respectively, 23.1% and 49.6% growth . Real estate enterprises accelerated the return of funds through price cuts, promotions and other policies , and the cumulative source of funds for real estate development in January-February rose 51.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans, self-financing, and deposits and receipts in advance increasing 14.4%, 34.2% and 96.3% respectively .The cumulative investment in real estate in January-February was 38.3% year-on-year, compared with the 15.7% growth in the same period of 2019. In terms of land transactions, land acquisition area and transaction price were 33.0% and 14.3% year-on-year in January-February, but up -6.0% and -27.1% from the same period of 2019, respectively.
On the construction front, real estate enterprises accelerated construction, with construction and completion area in Jan-Feb up 11.0% and 40.4% y-o-y, and 14.2% and 8.2% from the same period in 2019, respectively.
V. Excluding the base effect, infrastructure investment fell
January-February infrastructure investment (including water, electricity and gas) cumulative year-on-year 35.0%, compared with the same period in 2019, down 1.3%, the average growth rate of two years -0.7%.
Sub-industry, January-February electricity, heat, fuel and water investment cumulative year-on-year 25.5%, Infrastructure investment (excluding water, electricity and gas) cumulative year-on-year 36.6%; transportation and warehousing, water conservancy and environmental facilities investment cumulative year-on-year 31.0% and 42.2%, respectively. Transportation and warehousing, January-February cumulative investment in railroads and roads year-on-year growth rate of 52.9% and 30.7%, respectively.
Infrastructure investment peaked and fell as the economy recovered, the need for counter-cyclical adjustments fell sharply, and local fiscal constraints intensified.
New government bond financing of 101.7 billion yuan in February, a year-on-year increase of 80.7 billion yuan less, the 2021 new local debt quota has not yet been issued in February, overlaid on the intensification of local fiscal tensions, infrastructure investment topped out and fell back, compared with the same period of 2019, there is a smaller increase. Although the two sessions approved the 2021 local government general debt balance limit of 15.1 trillion yuan, special debt balance limit of 18.2 trillion yuan. However, due to
special debt has more stringent requirements for projects to be invested in, the lack of reserves of high-quality infrastructure projects may lead to the funds will not be fully utilized.
Six, manufacturing investment is still weaker than in 2019, but will accelerate the recovery
January-February manufacturing investment cumulative 37.3% year-on-year, compared with the same period of 2019 fell 5.9%, the two-year average fell 3.0%.
January-February cumulative growth rate of investment in agrifood processing, food, chemical raw materials and chemical products, pharmaceutical manufacturing, special equipment, transportation equipment, electrical machinery and electronic equipment manufacturing industries were 54.4%, 37.6%, 63.2%, 64.0%, 60.2%, 40.1%, 38.5%, and 41.6%, respectively, higher than the manufacturing industry Overall. However, as corporate earnings improve, the inventory replenishment cycle will drive future manufacturing investment to accelerate recovery.
VII. Consumption is still sluggish, and the employment situation is grim
Total retail sales of social consumer goods in January-February increased by 33.8% year-on-year, up by 6.4% from January-February 2019, and by 6.4% from January-February 2019, total retail sales of social consumer goods in January-February increased by 33.8% year-on-year. By consumption type, there was a higher growth rate due to the low base, but the actual repair was slower.
Retail merchandise and food and beverage consumption grew 30.7% and 68.9% year-on-year in January-February, with retail merchandise value up 7.7% from the same period in 2019, but food and beverage consumption is still weaker than in the same period in 2019. In terms of consumer goods categories, the growth rate of upgraded consumer goods was higher, with communication equipment, cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry up 53.1%, 40.7% and 98.7% year-on-year, respectively, in January-February. Consumption of essential goods remained high, beverage and tobacco consumption increased by 36.9% and 43.9% year-on-year.
The employment situation is grim.
From January to February, 1.48 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, and the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.4% in January and 5.5% in February, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year, but up 0.3 percentage points from December last year. Among them, the surveyed unemployment rate for people aged 25-59 was 5.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the same period last year but up 0.3 percentage points from December last year.
VIII. Import and export exceeded the expected high growth, external demand continues to recover
China's exports (in US dollars) in January-February increased by 60.6% year-on-year, up 42.5 percentage points from December last year. The higher-than-expected growth in exports is mainly due to the continued repair of external demand and the low base of last year.
February global composite PMI of 53.2%, the United States, Europe and Japan manufacturing PMI were 60.8%, 57.9% and 51.4%; strong demand for shipping, shipping prices continue to break through the history of new highs in February, China's export Container Freight Forwarding Composite Index (CCFI) average value of 2,063.8, compared with 920.7 a year ago; Trade weathervane South Korean exports in February 13.9% year-on-year.
By region, exports to major economies have risen, with 1-2 exports to the U.S., EU, ASEAN, Japan and South Korea at 87.3%, 62.6%, 53.0%, 47.0% and 49.0% year-on-year, respectively.
Sub-products, the export of labor-intensive products with the recovery of external demand and recovery, textiles, bags, clothing and toys and other labor-intensive products exports year-on-year 60.8%, 24.8%, 50.0% and 96.8%, agricultural products, machinery and electronic products and high-tech products exports year-on-year, respectively, 24.1%, 64.7% and 58.1%.
China's imports in January-February (in US dollars) rose 22.2% year-on-year, up 15.7 percentage points from December last year. The year-on-year import value of agricultural products, electromechanical products and high-tech products in January-February was 30.1%, 33.8% and 35.1% respectively.
Commodity import growth rate divergence, January-February crude oil, iron ore, steel and copper import amount year-on-year were -19.6%, 60.9%, 26.4% and 32.9% respectively.
Nine, the new social financing, credit scale hit a record high in the same period of history
February the new social financing scale hit a record high in the same period of history, in February the social financing growth rate of 13.3%, rebounded by 0.3 percentage points from the previous year.
February new social financing scale 1.71 trillion yuan, year-on-year more than expected increase of 839.2 billion yuan. The stock of social financing scale 291.36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 13.3%, a rebound of 0.3 percentage points.
From the structure of social financing, the entity financing demand is strong, the enterprise, the residential sector to take over the government sector to increase leverage. Credit and undiscounted bills of exchange constitute the main support for social financing, while corporate bonds and government bonds constitute the main drag.
February new government bond financing 101.7 billion yuan, year-on-year increase of 80.7 billion yuan; new RMB loans 1.34 trillion yuan, year-on-year increase of 621.1 billion yuan, residential loans, corporate medium- and long-term loans constitute the main support; off-balance-sheet financing decreased by 39.6 billion yuan, year-on-year decrease of 446.1 billion yuan; the new corporate bond financing 130.6 billion yuan. Year-on-year, respectively, less than 258.8 billion yuan, less than 244.5 billion yuan; new stock financing 69.3 billion yuan, less than 29.8 billion yuan, after the Spring Festival, U.S. bond interest rates rose sharply, driven by the valuation of the domestic stock market adjustments, holding shares fell sharply, the stock market trading heat fell, or led to the cooling of stock financing.
From the credit structure, the entity investment and financing demand is stronger, structural monetary policy tools and credit policy precision drip irrigation, medium and long-term loans increased by 1.1 trillion yuan to a record high in the same period of history.
February new corporate loans 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 70 billion yuan; short-term loans, medium- and long-term loans, note financing, respectively, a substantial increase of 405.2 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 684.3 billion yuan, more than 248.9 billion yuan; the new resident loans 142.1 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 555.4 billion yuan.
M2 year-on-year growth rate of 10.1% in February, a rebound of 0.7 percentage points.
In February, the marginal easing of funding, the pace of credit expansion has accelerated, coupled with the acceleration of fiscal investment, *** with the boost to the M2 growth rate.
From a structural point of view, 1) Corporate deposits decreased by 2.42 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year reduction of 2.7 trillion yuan. Resident deposits increased by 3.26 trillion yuan, a substantial year-on-year increase of 3.38 trillion yuan, mainly due to the staggered impact of the Spring Festival of 2021 and 2020, the Spring Festival of 2021 is in February, and enterprises focus on payroll and bonuses to residents, resulting in a large reduction in corporate deposits and a large increase in resident deposits.2) Fiscal deposits decreased by 847.9 billion yuan, a substantial year-on-year decrease of 868.7 billion yuan, and the fiscal investment has been accelerated.3) Non-bank financial institutions deposits increased by 1.6 trillion yuan, a substantial year-on-year increase of 1.1 trillion yuan, or reflecting the stock market rose before the Spring Festival to drive residents and enterprises into the stock market.
M1 year-on-year growth rate of 7.4%, down 7.3 percentage points, mainly by the Chinese New Year staggered effect, in February, enterprises focused on residents to pay wages, bonuses, dragging down the growth rate of M1, but the manufacturing industry investment to maintain a high level of real estate sales heat still exists, the real economic activity is still recovering.
Ten, the global economic recovery superimposed on the supply and demand gap, PPI continued to rise
February CPI ring 0.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; year-on-year decline of 0.2%, compared with the previous month, the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points. 2 months after the exclusion of the core CPI of food and energy prices 0% year-on-year , up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Food prices year-on-year from the previous month rose 1.6% to a decline of 0.2%, affecting the CPI fell about 0.05 percentage points. Among them, the price of fresh vegetables 3.3% year-on-year, down 7.6 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to rising oil prices leading to higher storage and transportation costs. Livestock and meat prices fell 7.3% year-on-year, a decline of 6.9 percentage points from the previous month; the continued recovery of pig herds, pork prices fell significantly, down 14.9% year-on-year, a decline of 11 percentage points, and the chain of events from the previous month's rise of 5.6% to a decline of 3.1%. Eggs and fresh fruit prices were 3.0% and 3.1% year-on-year, respectively, both up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month.
The PPI rose 1.7 percent year-on-year in February, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.8 percent sequentially, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
PPI upward mainly due to industrial production continued to improve, exports and investment recovery, and international commodity prices to pull. 13.3% in February the average price of Brent crude oil ring ring, the South China Industrial Products Index ring of 4.8%, South China rebar ring of 1.9%, LME copper ring of 4.7%. In terms of sub-industries, those with larger increases were mainly coal, petroleum, chemical, non-ferrous and ferrous metals. Affected by international crude oil prices and other factors, the relevant industries have expanded the rate of increase; among them, oil and gas mining prices rose 7.5%, oil, coal and other fuel processing industry prices rose 4.9%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry prices rose 2.1%, or an increase of 1.1 percentage points. Metal-related industry prices continue to rise, the combined impact of the PPI rose about 0.24 percentage points; of which, ferrous metal ore mining industry prices rose 5.9%, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices rose 1.5%, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices rose 2.3%.
Xi, supply and demand expansion weakened
February manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, for the twelfth consecutive month above the glorified line. 1) The expansion of supply and demand is weakening.
In February, the production index and new orders index were 51.9% and 51.5% respectively, down 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. Expansion on both the supply and demand sides weakened for two consecutive months, with economic growth slowing at the margin and the recovery entering the top range. The production side of the decline in the amplitude of the supply and demand gap has narrowed, since March last year, the rapid repair of production gradually returned to the demand. new export orders index in February was 48.8%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, back below the Rongkou line.
2) Small businesses
Recovery is not well-founded, still need policy relief.
In February, the PMI for large, medium, and small businesses was 52.2%, 49.6%, and 48.3%, respectively, a change of 0.1, -1.8, and -1.1 percentage points from the previous month; large businesses are always in the boom expansion range, and medium and small businesses are back in the contraction range. The "New Year's Eve on the spot" has led to robust economic activity in first- and second-tier cities and sluggish economic activity in third- and fourth-tier cities, impacting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). new orders and new export orders indexes for small firms stood at 47.9% and 35.1% respectively in February, representing a change of -1.5 and -10.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new orders and new export orders indexes were 47.9% and 35.1% respectively in February, a change of -1.5 and -10 percentage points over the previous month.
The non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.4% in February, down 1.0 percentage point, and above the glorified line for the twelfth consecutive month.1) The boom in the construction industry has declined.
February construction business activity index was 54.7%, down 5.3 percentage points from the previous month, the boom has declined. Related to the weather, the Spring Festival, real estate regulation and local financial tightening. From the market demand and expectations, the new orders index and business activity expectations index were 53.4% and 68.2%, higher than last month's 2.2 and 14.6 percentage points.
2) The service sector has fallen back.
The business activity index for the service sector was 50.8% in February, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry situation, and residents' consumption closely related to retail, catering, entertainment and other industries business activity index are located in the expansion zone and higher than the previous month, the industry business activities are relatively active; telecom broadcasting and television satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services and other industries business activity index is higher than 58.0%, the volume of business to maintain a relatively rapid growth. However, the business activity index of accommodation, capital market services, leasing and business services and other industries is located below the critical point.
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