Thank you all. I think the CEO mainly does two things, the first is to look at future opportunities, and the second is to look at future disasters. Most bosses, if they can't see the future opportunities, can't motivate their employees, but a CEO has another responsibility. You have to see what disasters and troubles there are in the future. If you can know that this society is bound to have such trouble, you can make preparations in advance and find a solution to this trouble, and you may be very successful. I personally think that as a CEO, there is two responsibility (very important): When all employees and everyone start to worry and have no confidence in the future, you must see hope; When everyone is looking forward to the future, you must see the disaster. And any disaster, any trouble, may be a huge opportunity.
I have been talking about my views and opinions, because many of you are young people, so we should talk about it. In my family, my father is a very ordinary worker, but he worked hard all the way for his love of literature and art, and later became the chairman of Zhejiang Quyi Association. People said he was Gao Qian, but I didn't even know he was Gao Qian. Isn't he just an opera lover? My mother is an ordinary person. Young people like us have no rich and powerful parents, no uncles related by blood, no accumulation of yesterday and no resources of today. The only thing we have to do is to judge the future. The judgment of the future is at least ten years later. Do you think there will be such a problem or such an opportunity in this world? If you stick to this direction for ten years, maybe you will win the opportunity.
We can't fight yesterday with others, and we don't necessarily fight today with others, but we must fight the future with others. Today, in my opinion, I have actually said a little more recently. I think that in the next 30 years, the whole world will change more than everyone imagined. In the next 30 years, fierce social contradictions and the impact of enterprises will have a great impact on all walks of life. All people, if you feel sad and worried, it will always be a trouble. If you think this is an opportunity, it will be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
I must repeat that I am a teacher because of my responsibility. I never thought I would be the CEO of such a company. Today, I have learned so much, learned so much data and met so many outstanding people in the world. I feel it my duty to share these ideas with others. It's not that I want to say it. In fact, every time I speak, I am very tired, but I think it is a responsibility. You must share the future and think.
On the dispute between reality and falsehood: Internet is not a scapegoat for bad entities.
Many companies are scolding us-actually not many-and some companies say that we destroyed their supermarkets and shopping malls, but I personally feel that fifteen years ago, I made two or three hundred such speeches all over the country, at least in two or three years, reminding everyone that the Internet and e-commerce will have an impact on all walks of life, but no one took this statement seriously. At that time, I was a nobody, and talking was tantamount to talking in vain. But today, since I have such resources, I still want to tell you that in the next twenty or thirty years, the world will change beyond everyone's imagination, and most people will be unlucky. The first thing I want to say is that any technological revolution in the past 50 years must be the business of technology companies, and the next 30 years must be the application of technology. The Internet will enter the Internet era from the Internet technology in the past twenty years. In the next 30 years, any enterprise, if you are not connected to the Internet and do not use the Internet to develop its own business, will be as terrible as the lack of electricity a hundred years ago or decades ago, or even more terrible than the lack of electricity.
There is a saying that entities serve the country. I always find this sentence awkward, as if it was often said in the 1920s and 1930s. Entity and virtual should not be antagonistic. There is no virtual economy and no real economy. Only the perfect combination of the two is the future real economy. China is the only country in the world that calls the Internet economy a virtual economy. What is a real virtual economy? Virtual economy is mainly defined as financial institutions in Europe and America. In China, no one dares to criticize financial institutions. If you criticize financial institutions, you won't get a loan. The real definition of the real economy has two important components, the first is manufacturing, and the second is circulation. In manufacturing, China has made great progress in the past 30 years, but we are not good at circulation. It is precisely because the circulation link is not done well that we have many problems today, including inventory, including backlog, including overcapacity, because we don't understand the market at all, and we take it for granted.
In Europe and America, especially in the United States, many real economies often reflect on a problem after being hit. Why didn't I catch the wave of the Internet and use it to change myself? It seems that everyone here feels that criticizing the internet seems to be a very glorious thing, and that it is all your fault. No one in this world wants to hurt you on purpose. It's because you didn't do it yourself, not because the real economy is not good. It's that your real economy is not very good, and it's also very good. Tesla is not very good, and neither is Apple.
So I don't think the Internet should be regarded as a scapegoat for today's bad economy or the bad real economy. On the contrary, all enterprises have reached this point today. When you are still complaining about a technology, it is just your bad luck. I also made a point at the Shenzhen Internet IT Leaders Summit. /kloc-More than 0/00 years ago, China people hated one thing the most. Others said that we were "the sick man of East Asia" and were weak. But today, we have to think about our knowledge structure and culture, so as to truly become the "sick man of the Internet". We are complaining, not changing ourselves, but learning from ourselves. These are all quite good.
Talking about five innovations: the first impact of new retail and new manufacturing has just passed.
We should change and adapt to the future. If you can't create the future, you should at least adapt to it. If you can't create change, you should at least embrace it or adapt to it. I have said it many times, but I still want to say it. In the next decade or less in China, the "Five Innovations" will surely impact all walks of life.
The first is new retail. Some people say that new retail and old retail have always been retail. He was right, too. In my opinion, online, offline, logistics and data must be combined to create a new retail system. Internet companies, like us who do e-commerce, have never felt how glorious it is to beat supermarkets, and supermarkets and shopping malls should not feel how proud they are to beat or win the Internet. In the future, all our retail industries will learn not how to sell things, but how to serve others and learn how to serve others. Whether you are online e-commerce or offline retail, the most important thing is that everything is not enterprise-oriented, cost-oriented, resource-oriented, but people-oriented, and how an individual can serve every customer. So the first wave of retail impact has just passed.
The second wave of impact, I think, is the new manufacturing industry. The original manufacturing industry was standardized, large-scale and low-cost. We hear these words the most. MBA students teach these things, standardization, scale and low cost. Compared with the labor cost, this set of things will soon be completely replaced by personalization, customization and intelligence. In the past, what we wanted to buy became more and more standard, and it must be personalized in the future. How to standardize personalized things, and how to personalize standardized things? I want to tell you that after the emergence of IOT and big data, the great changes in the future will have a far greater impact on China's manufacturing industry than the retail industry. Let me remind you first that in Guangdong, many units that used to run export processing lines, such as my assembly line and assembly line machinists, will be very terrible and worrying in ten to fifteen years.
All machinery and equipment will become more and more intelligent. The mobile phone is an ordinary mobile phone. After adding operating system and mobile chip, the function of making phone calls only accounts for 20%, and 80% of mobile phones have nothing to do with making phone calls. Mobile phones have become a part of people's bodies, and they spend the longest time with you, because time will flow more and more, accompanying you, surpassing your parents and your wife. We wake up at night, not touching our wives, but touching our mobile phones.
If the future car joins the operating system, have you ever imagined that the traffic function will not exceed 40% at most, and there will be 60%, what will the car be used for? In the future, all our telephones and lights, as long as they are powered by electricity, will be intelligent, so the impact of new manufacturing will come soon, as you can see today. If you don't make this preparation, it must be you who are in trouble.
New finance means that the rights of the old lady and the chairman are the same.
There is also new finance, which I understand as the biggest change, from the original "28" to "82". The original financial institutions only need to serve 20% of major customers, state-owned enterprises, multinational enterprises and rich enterprises, and then earn 80% of profits. I think they are called to serve 20% customers and earn 80% profits. Life is wonderful. But the future world must be 82, that is, you must serve 80% of the things that financial institutions did not serve yesterday. The future finance must be inclusive, and the future finance must be fair for everyone. Personally, I feel that if you don't think about the 80% people who are not served today, and don't think that finance gives everyone a fair right, then you can't do anything. If you don't think about how to make finance truly inclusive, you won't have this opportunity. Actually, I think I'm very proud. About 12 years ago, Alipay's colleagues asked me, Jack, how do you think Alipay will make money in the future and how will it develop in the future?
I said I had no idea how to make money, only one requirement. I hope Alipay can give any old lady the same rights as the chairman of ICBC. Because on that day, an old lady next door said that she would come home late at night. When she got home, the power went out and she forgot to pay the electricity bill. The old lady got up early in the morning and stood in line at the bank gate for a long time to pay the money. These big presidents and bankers, you may ask the secretary to pay a sum of money. I think as long as you press it on your mobile phone, no matter the governor, mayor, president or old lady, you can press it. This is new finance. Of course, people also say so. Now people say that the competition between WeChat payment and your Alipay is fierce. what do you think? I thought it was pretty good. In particular, some people say that we have been playing Alipay for more than ten years. We fight with banks and central banks for all policies. As a result, people go with the flow. I said very good. As long as someone participates, we can turn 28 into 82. This kind of social progress is beneficial to us.
Besides, what is new technology? In the next 30 years, technology will change far beyond your imagination. In the past 30 years, IT technologies such as PC chips, PC operating systems and Cisco routers have developed very rapidly, making most European and American countries and regions, especially the developed cities in China, fully master IT technologies, making enterprises more and more powerful. But in the future, due to the data technology caused by the Internet, the Internet will become the most important technical facility, and data will become the energy source for all enterprises to innovate. Based on this, new technologies such as mobile chips and mobile operating systems will emerge one after another in the future. So all kinds of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, these things should not be regarded as concepts. Remind you here that it doesn't matter if you don't understand, but don't resist. There is only one way to understand, hurry, and don't understand. Wake up the young people in your company and let him explain to you how I can support you, not to mention that these technologies require a lot of money to do. As long as you believe in the future today and work hard, you will have a chance.
Finally, there are new energy sources. The first generation of energy is coal, the second generation is oil and the third generation is data. The first technological revolution, coal-based energy, led to the business model of the factory. The second oil-based business model and technological revolution gave birth to the company. What kind of business model will be adopted this time is worthy of all entrepreneurs, big and small, to think about.
Third, I think a new real economy will be born. In the next 30 years, there will be many new real economies. As I said just now, the real economy is called manufacturing and circulation, and the responsibility of the Internet is to create more new entities. Now let's talk about saving the real economy. I think the real economy that should be eliminated must be eliminated. Not all real economies are good, and not all virtual economies are bad. In the process of transformation and upgrading, backward productive forces that consume too much energy and destroy the environment should be ground out. We can't use this reason to take us back to yesterday. The main purpose of Internet economy is to establish a virtual economy, a number and a credit system, and support each other with the real economy, so as to truly create a promising (new real economy). In fact, the first step of new finance is to establish a credit system.
I do not criticize traditional finance. Anyway, I have been hanging out with the old finance for many years, and I respect them very much. China's economy could not have developed so well without the "February 28th Theory" of the past 30 years, but in fact, many banks in China still rely on mortgages today, which is no different from the pawn shops more than 100 years ago. 100 years ago, you gave him something and he gave you money. Now you say you gave him the mortgaged goods. There is no difference, because the whole China society lacks a credit system, and there is no society with a credit system.
The technological revolution will affect employment, but it will also create new employment opportunities.
The cost of business activities is high, so new finance, new technology and big data are all good. That's what I want to say. A large number of new real economies will be born. Don't think that the real economy will be good. The future will be a new real economy. Only an economy that is truly creative and conducive to sustainable development is good.
There is also the most lively relationship between robots and people recently. Artificial intelligence (AI) is the hottest now. Personally, with the Internet as the infrastructure and the mass production of data, the use of data has become impossible for people. Many people say that I studied data analysis, and this person has no job in the future. Because the future data is too big to be calculated with the brain, artificial intelligence must be used. The so-called big data has two different meanings. "Big" refers to big computing, and data refers to cloud data. Now many companies tell me that we have big data for a long time, and I don't understand. He believes that data is mostly big data. Many governments say that we are already big data. The "big" of big data is big computing, that is, computing. Data is cloud, which are two different concepts. In the past, especially in the last twenty or thirty years, we turned people into machines, especially on the assembly line. In the next twenty or thirty years, we will turn machines into people, and machines will do many things, but artificial intelligence may have two different directions in the future.
I don't necessarily agree with the United States that AI can do things that machines can replace people. Artificial intelligence in America was put forward by several scholars. These scholars are really top-notch. They see the future. But it's also interesting to feel that I lack practical experience. Especially after I went to America some time ago and talked with some scholars, I was dizzy. Many of them are engaged in AI, and many of them are studied by brain doctors, combining the human brain with the machine. I don't think this is the right way, because we humans know less than 3% about the brain. If we don't understand the brain ourselves, only 3%, I think there is something wrong with you letting the machine learn. Especially in the past two years, people and machines have lost the game of Go. If I am a master of Go and a low hand like me, I can't compete with the machine. You can't compete with it, and you can't compete with it. Machines are smarter than people, and people are definitely smarter than people. Humans should not be stupid enough to compete with machines for strength. You have no chance to compare speed with machines, you have no chance, and you have no chance to compare with them. The machine will always remember that it is better than you and will never forget it. Machines will always be faster than you, and machines will never get angry. You play Go, people play with you for more than 500 brains, and it has no mood. The purpose of playing Go is to wait for someone to play bad chess. I will play, and as a result, people will never be good at chess. What's the point?
So I personally think that machines must do things that humans can't do. Machines can do things that humans can't. So I personally think there is another kind of artificial intelligence called machine intelligence. Machines must have their own mode of thinking, just as cars are interesting. In the early machine intelligence, if the car walked by people, it should go like this, but the car actually walked by wheels. Therefore, in my opinion, we must find a way. Machines can replace people and do better than people. It's nothing. Machines should do things that humans can't do. If we do this, we will have a chance to make the machine a partner of human beings forever, not the biggest rival of human beings.
The next question, because of machine intelligence and artificial intelligence, in the next 30 years, a huge change is occupation, and all our employment will undergo great changes. You may have seen it on the Internet. A few weeks ago, two robbers robbed money in Hangzhou and were arrested for robbing three supermarkets at night. As a result, they robbed 1600 yuan. Why Hangzhou has no money? People pay by mobile phone. You rushed into the supermarket and there was no cash. Has anyone heard of robbing a taxi driver now? No, taxi drivers used to have cash. Now they have taxis. Especially near the West Lake in Hangzhou, there is a beggar with a QR code in front. Now people go out and have no money to pay their bills. Scan it.
Every technological revolution has affected employment, but it has also created new employment opportunities. 1870, 50% of the workers in the United States were farmers, but a hundred years later, less than 2% were farmers. In fact, every time we get a job, everyone seems to have a big opinion about us. After you came out of Taobao and Tmall, it had a great impact on the industry and retail. Taobao and Tmall created 33 million direct and indirect jobs, which is the most conservative data. Have you found that supermarkets have lost10 million jobs in China? A shopping mall said we were bankrupt, and China10 million people lost their jobs? No, on the contrary, where are all the workers who didn't do well in the supermarket? The service system and service organizations that go to e-commerce will definitely bring about a large-scale transfer of employment.
In 30 years, the CEO of the year may be a robot.
I think many technical positions you saw yesterday will be replaced, and we must think about it, even the CEOs present here. I think in 30 years, the CEO of the year on the cover of Time magazine is probably a robot. It is clearer than you remember, faster than you calculate, more rational, without emotion, and will not be angry with competitors at all. Therefore, in the past, we focused on technology, and in the future, we should focus on culture. Everyone should think about it. I asked you a question just now. People really have to live to 100 years old. In the future, with the improvement of big data, big computing and data capabilities, we will definitely see cancer broken and AIDS broken in the next 30 years. We will certainly see that it is not a problem for human beings to live to 100 years old. But at the same time, it will also bring many problems, among which there are not so many jobs, and everyone asks how to live. It is also a terrible thing to think for yourself. But one thing is certain. In ten or twenty years, we will probably work less than four hours a day, maybe three days a week. Everyone said it was impossible. I tell you, your grandfather's grandfather works sixteen hours a day, but when he comes to see you, he works eight hours a day and has two rest days a week. In the future, people really only need to work for three or four hours and have many rest days. It turns out that we may only go to 30 places in this life, and we may go to 300 places or even 3000 places in the next life. The world has become very mobile, so will all industries.
Machines liberate human beings in order to let us do more creative things.
The last century was manufacturing, and the next century was service. How to make people happy, including I went to the northeast two days ago to watch the duet, I think it's quite interesting. We in China speak this, and some words are difficult to translate. I once met some people engaged in music, movies and television in America. They came out and said, "I am engaged in culture." You translate it and tell Americans that you are engaged in culture. Americans say you are a museum or a library. Actually, he is an entertainer. He said he was engaged in culture, but once he got it, he couldn't touch it. In fact, entertainment, which really makes people happy and entertaining, is such a good art, so I personally think that the future world will become very fast, and many industries should clearly locate what value this world will create.
It can be seen that due to the development of technology, education must be reformed and developed, and the traditional education system. When discussing the future with the five ambassadors this morning, I actually said I would tell you bad news. In the next 30 years, the world will change quickly and painfully. The first technological revolution led to World War I, and the second technological revolution led to World War II. The first technological revolution released physical fitness, the second technological revolution released the sense of distance, the train and plane came out, and the distance of the whole world changed. Therefore, in the next 30 years, the world will suffer far more than happiness, because many problems have not been encountered, and human beings have not encountered these problems. We are very happy now, but/kloc-the second technological revolution of more than 0/00 years and the industrial revolution of more than 200 years, at that time, human beings were suffering, but you just didn't know it. Therefore, I think education must be reformed. It is necessary to teach culture from knowledge, so that children can be creative, innovative, creative and curious.
One more thing, for entrepreneurs, I hope entrepreneurs will remember that we were originally called entrepreneurs and later called online entrepreneurs, all on the Internet. In the next 30 years, the world will not belong to Internet companies, but to those companies that make good use of the Internet. So finally, let me introduce it to you. I know my time is running out. Let me give you a final introduction. Think clearly, there are 654.38+07 billion people on the Internet today. In another ten years, after 1990, after 2000, after 2065.438+00, that is, in another twenty years, there will be five or six billion people all online. Think about it. Therefore, I hope everyone will pay attention to the next 30 years, enterprises with less than 30 employees and young people around 30 years old, because only in this way can we have hope, expectation and preparation for the future. Thank you.