The traditional "Golden Nine" sales season in the property market has eclipsed this year.

CRIC data shows that the expected transaction volume in the 28 monitored cities in September is 19.55 million square meters, a decrease of 7% from the previous month. Among them, the first-tier cities dropped 23% month-on-month, and the second- and third-tier cities dropped 4% month-on-month. In addition, in September, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a single-month sales transaction amount of 759.6 billion yuan, and the single-month performance scale was less than that in August (774.57 billion yuan), declining month-on-month for the first time.

The reason why this year's "Golden Nine" has faded is that in addition to the continuous tightening of property market control policies such as purchase restrictions and sales restrictions in various places, the insufficient bank loan quota and the lengthening of the loan cycle due to rising mortgage interest rates are also important factors.

However, bank mortgage interest rates in some areas have recently shown signs of lowering or loosening. According to research and statistics from Wuyou Housing Search Platform, some state-owned banks and joint-stock banks in Guangzhou, Foshan and other places have begun to lower the interest rates for first and second home loans. In addition, banks in Yiyang, Hunan have also lowered mortgage interest rates.

Mortgage interest rates have been reduced in some areas

Currently, loan interest rates across the country continue to increase and the lending cycle continues to lengthen. Some banks in some cities have even suspended lending, resulting in a rapid decline in property market transaction volume. Although speculative demand has been effectively suppressed, groups with rigid needs have also been affected.

CRIC data shows that in September this year, the national average interest rate for first-home loans was 5.46%, an increase of 23 basis points from the end of last year; the average interest rate for second-home loans was 5.83%, an increase of 29 basis points from the end of last year. .

However, bank mortgage interest rates in some areas have recently been lowered or loosened. Worry-free housing search data shows that in September, Guangzhou's local Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Everbright Bank, and Guangzhou Bank all lowered their mortgage interest rates. Among them, Everbright Bank's first home loan interest rate dropped by 40BP; Foshan's local Construction Bank The Agricultural Bank of China and the Agricultural Bank of China also lowered their mortgage interest rates. Among them, the Agricultural Bank of China’s first-home and second-home loan interest rates were both reduced by 20BP.

Data source: Wuyou Housing

Regarding the phenomenon of some banks in Guangzhou and Foshan lowering mortgage interest rates, a staff member of the Personal Finance Department of Agricultural Bank of China Guangzhou Branch told "Daily Economic News" Reporter, "Mortgage interest rates themselves are greatly affected by market supply and demand. Each bank will adjust mortgage interest rates based on the actual situation within the bank and the market situation. For example, when the domestic epidemic was severe last year, our bank lowered the mortgage interest rates. And this year In the first half of the year, the market volume in Guangzhou has been running at a high level and the transactions are hot. We followed the market and canceled the discount rate.”

The reporter checked the data of the National Bureau of Statistics and found that the price of new houses in Guangzhou began to rise in May 2020. By July this year, the month-on-month increase in new home prices in Guangzhou narrowed to 0.2%. In August, the month-on-month increase in new home prices was -0.1%.

“The current mortgage interest rate has indeed dropped compared to the previous two months. The mortgage interest rate of the four major banks is about 5.8%, and some banks can even reach 5.5%. If you want to get a mortgage loan quickly, you can get it approved quickly. , it mainly depends on your source of funds. If 80% of the funds for purchasing the house are your own funds and there is no problem with the flow, it can usually be approved in 1 to 2 months," a real estate agent in Guangzhou told "Daily Economic News. "reporter.

However, a real estate agent in Foshan expressed a different view from the market: "According to the information I have, the mortgage interest rates of most banks in Foshan have not been reduced, but according to some According to internal information disclosed by cooperating banks, the mortgage interest rates of some banks will be lowered next month.”

I previously purchased a 115-square-meter apartment in Yiyang, Hunan (the total price was about 750,000 yuan). , 15-year loan), Mr. Chen told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that starting from last month, the mortgage interest rate of his local bank has dropped. Before, his monthly payment was about 6,288 yuan, and now it has dropped to 6,210 yuan. Saved 78 yuan per month.

Mortgage interest rates will mainly be stable in the future

Although mortgage interest rates have dropped in some areas, a business manager of a city commercial bank said in an interview with a reporter from "Daily Economic News" Said, "Mortgage interest rates are based on the unified LPR, and there may be some differences in some policies in different cities. According to the information I have, there is currently no large-scale adjustment in loan interest rates across the country."

" Shenzhen is still very strict about housing loans, and the loan quota of our branch is still very limited. Our bank has not yet received a notice of lowering the housing loan interest rate," a business manager of a joint-stock bank in Shenzhen told reporters.

In fact, since this year, mortgage interest rates have been raised in many first- and second-tier cities, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Foshan.

For example, starting from July 24 this year, the interest rate for first-home loans in Shanghai was adjusted from 4.65% to 5%, officially entering the "5" era; the interest rate for second-home loans was raised from 5.25% to 5.7%.

Looking at Guangzhou, in the first eight months of this year, many banks raised mortgage interest rates several times. The interest rates for first- and second-home loans were 5.85% and 6.05% respectively, which are not only much higher than other First-tier cities also rank at the forefront among mainstream cities across the country. The highest interest rates for first- and second-home loans in Foshan are both 7%.

“In the past, the cities with the most stringent mortgage controls began to lower mortgage interest rates, indicating that various localities are interested in solving the impact of emphasis on control on rigid demand. But now the pricing of the mortgage market follows the 'one city, one policy' "In principle, the situation of mortgage differentiation will still exist." Li Wanbin, an analyst at Rong360 Big Data Research Institute, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the regulatory authorities are cautious about lowering the 5-year LPR in the short term. The probability will also be relatively flat.

It is worth noting that in late September, the central bank held two important meetings in a row, both of which mentioned stabilizing real estate, which was interpreted as positive by the market.

The 2021 third quarter regular meeting of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held on September 24 clearly required “maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.” On September 29, the real estate finance work symposium jointly held by the Central Bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission emphasized that the financial sector must implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and accurately grasp and implement real estate policies around the goals of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations" Financial prudent management system, continue to implement the long-term mechanism for real estate, and accelerate the improvement of the housing leasing financial policy system.

In addition, the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter of 2021" previously released by the central bank also emphasized that it will maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies, adhere to the stabilization of land prices, house prices, Stabilize expectations, implement long-term real estate mechanisms, and do not use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy.

Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the mortgage interest rate policies of each city will be different and it is not easy to generalize, but the rise and fall of mortgage interest rates are very different. To a large extent, it is linked to the market demand of the city. Generally speaking, in the future, commercial bank policies will be carried out under the general framework of "housing for living, not speculation", and then fine-tuned according to the actual market conditions.

Market participants generally believe that the future trend of mortgage interest rates will mainly focus on maintaining stability. From a short-term perspective, cities that were previously greatly affected by regulation may see mortgage interest rates decline, thereby weakening the previous factors. The impact of rising mortgage interest rates on home buyers.