As of July 30, 2020, the main indicators of economic growth in the first half of this year in the country's 31 provinces have all been released.
Economic growth in various regions varied greatly due to the impact of the new crown epidemic. From the point of view of economic growth, the first half of the steady recovery of the economy around, the overall trend continues to improve, compared with the first quarter have a significant rebound. 16 of the 31 provinces is a positive increase in the rise of 15 provinces to realize the negative to positive. Among them, the most obvious increase is Tibet, with 5.1% growth rate ranked first in the country.
In terms of total economic output, Guangdong province's GDP data in the first half of 2020 still ranked first, reaching 4.92 trillion yuan; Jiangsu province's GDP ranked second with 4.67 trillion yuan, and Shandong province's GDP ranked third with 3.3 trillion yuan. Among them, the gap between Jiangsu and Guangdong's GDP narrowed significantly. In addition, six provinces' GDP exceeded two trillion yuan in the first half of the year, and 19 provinces exceeded one trillion yuan.
Specific cities, compared with the 2019 city TOP10 lineup has changed significantly, the latest GDP 10 ranking in order is Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Tianjin. Among them, Chongqing overtook Guangzhou to become No. 4, Nanjing, as a newly promoted GDP Top 10 city, had an eye-catching performance, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.2%, and Wuhan, which was the hardest hit by the epidemic, dropped from the ninth to the eleventh place in the rankings.
Comprehensively, investment is still the key to pulling economic growth around, which real estate investment out of a wave of good growth line.
16 cities GDP over 500 billion yuan
According to China Real Estate News reporter statistics, the above 50 cities accounted for about 15% of the total number of cities above prefecture level, but the first half of 2020, the sum of the GDP of the 50 cities reached 2,381,473,000,000 yuan, accounting for 52.16% of the national GDP. In addition, the GDP of the 50 cities exceeding 500 billion yuan reached 16 cities.
From the point of view of the head cities, the top 10 GDP lineup has changed significantly. The top 10 GDP cities this year are Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Tianjin. Among them, Chongqing overtook Guangzhou to become No. 4, Nanjing as a newly promoted GDP10 city performance is eye-catching, year-on-year growth rate of 2.2%, by the epidemic hit Wuhan's ranking from the ninth to the eleventh.
There are 16 cities in the top 50 with GDP of more than 500 billion yuan***. These 16 cities include four municipalities, seven provincial capitals, three planned cities and two ordinary prefecture-level cities. In terms of provinces, there are 2 cities in Guangdong, the first economic province, 3 cities in Jiangsu, the second economic province, and 2 cities in Zhejiang. These 3 economic provinces*** have 7 500 billion yuan club cities, the number accounts for nearly half.
According to the data for the first half of 2020, there are 8 other cities in the 400 billion yuan echelon, becoming quasi 500 billion yuan cities, namely Quanzhou, Nantong, Foshan, Xi'an, Jinan, Hefei, Dongguan and Fuzhou. Among them, Nantong reached 466.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 2.0%, just one step away from the 500 billion yuan mark.
From a provincial perspective, Jiangsu accounted for the largest share of the top 50, ****10; Zhejiang was second, ****7; in addition, Shandong 5, Fujian and Guangdong 4 each. The sum of the cities of these five provinces shortlisted amounted to as many as 26, accounting for more than one-half, of which, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, three coastal economic provinces in the first half of the economic growth rate took the lead in realizing from negative to positive.
From the perspective of the city clusters, due to the different geographic locations and differences in economic fundamentals, there is a large gap in the level of development of the various city clusters. For example, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has been close to the development stage of the mature urban agglomeration, *** there are 19 cities in the top 50, accounting for 38% of the country; some are in rapid development and growth, for example, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong Peninsula, respectively, there are four cities were selected. But there are still a lot of city clusters are still in the embryonic state, for example, in the central and western and northeastern regions, most of the 50 finalists belong to provincial capitals, such as Wuhan, Chengdu, Xi'an, Changsha, Zhengzhou and so on, despite the rapid development of these cities in recent years, but there is still a large amount of economic output between them and the non-provincial capital cities, and the ordinary prefecture-level cities can not divert the development of the energy of the provincial capital cities.
It is worth noting that in the 12 western provinces in the Tibet Autonomous Region in the first half of the GDP of 83.838 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1%, accelerated by 4.1 percentage points over the first quarter, than the national growth rate of 6.7 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the country, the growth rate of the country in the first place. In addition, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Tibet, private investment and other economic indicators also performed well.
Real estate land auction investment is hot
Overall, investment is still the key word to pull economic growth, especially real estate development investment.
In the first half of the year, the country's fixed-asset investment (excluding farmers) fell 3.1 percent year-on-year, a decline of 3.2 percentage points narrower than in January-May, 13 percentage points narrower than in the first quarter. By sector, infrastructure investment fell by 2.7%, manufacturing investment fell by 11.7%, while real estate development investment took the lead in achieving a positive growth of 1.9%. In particular, in June alone, real estate development investment rose 8.5% year-on-year, and has achieved positive growth for four consecutive months.
Due to the epidemic, land transactions almost came to a standstill in the first quarter of this year. By the time the land transaction market was liberalized in the second quarter, first- and second-tier cities generally stepped up land supply, including many high-quality land plots.
With the supply of high-quality land plots, financing difficulties, real estate enterprises to speed up the completion of the annual land reserve work to take the land to improve the enthusiasm, led to the land transaction market is active, the success of a number of scarce high-quality land.
Specifically, the first and second tier cities in many places again high premium rate land transactions, but also the land price round by round to a new high. In the first half of this year, Chengdu **** launched 81 residential land, of which a number of plots of land in the Tianfu New District Luhu, high-tech zone Xinchuan plate, science city plate, Jinjiang District, Pan Chenggang plate and other high investment value area. High-quality plots of land into the market so that real estate enterprises in Chengdu actively replenishment, some plots of land and even attract dozens of real estate enterprises to participate in the bidding, repeatedly refreshing the Chengdu land auction transaction record. Shell Research Institute data show that Chengdu in the first half of the land auction floor price rose 35% year-on-year.
Nanjing, as the newly promoted GDP 10, did not do too badly in the land market in the first half of this year. According to incomplete statistics, in the first half of 2020, Nanjing's land transfer amounted to 76 billion yuan, an increase of 31.03% compared with 58 billion in the first half of 2019. Even in order to prevent the land market from overheating, has introduced "limit land price + limit house price" double limit policy, as well as "Ning nine" new policy to improve the housing restriction policy, to stabilize the land market.
This in the view of industry insiders, the land market is the first hot real estate market recovery indicators. In fact, after entering the May, the national real estate market showed a general trend, Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shenzhen and other places in the market heated up dramatically, the popular land frequently triggered the real estate enterprises to scramble outside, new home sales have repeatedly appeared "10,000 people shaking" scene, into the second half of the year has been seven cities due to similar phenomena to attract regulation.
According to the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute released "2020 first half of China's 100 cities residential land report" statistics show that in the first half of this year, the country's 100 cities residential land premium revenue of 1804.5 billion yuan, an increase of 13.1% year-on-year. In the context of a weaker macro-economy around the world, such land transactions have effectively contributed to the stabilization of local finances and guarded against the risk of a stall in fixed-asset investment around the world.
From the ranking of the country's 100 cities residential land transfer revenue, the first half of this year, the fastest growing nine cities are third and fourth-tier cities or prefecture-level cities, respectively, Nantong, Shaoguan, Zhangjiakou, Dongguan, Dandong, Yantai, Huainan, Chengde and Xiangyang, such cities in the first half of the land transfer revenue growth rate is faster, have exceeded the 100 percent level.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute's Think Tank Center, said the second half of the year is expected to rebound in the land market is still worth looking forward to, but we should pay attention to a number of new risks and new situations. First, including the "711 CBRC speech" and "724 State Council real estate work forum", are clear that the second half of the real estate policy is slightly tightening direction. Especially for the land market, the first half of the year does not exclude some of the high leverage or illegal funds into the second half of the key regulatory content. Second, some cities are too dependent on land sales revenue, the second half of the year in the context of stabilizing fixed asset investment, urban development mode will change, it will form a certain impact on the land transaction market. For the second half of the real estate investment mouth, need to pay attention to such new circumstances, in order to really avoid the risk and do a good job of land storage.