Making a rough estimate of all human work, Kai-Fu Lee predicted that about 50% of human work will be affected by artificial intelligence. So how should people currently in these easily-displaced industries respond? "You need to think deeply, cross fields, and know what the limitations of artificial intelligence are." Kaifu Lee said that artificial intelligence is a system that makes objective judgments based on big data in a single field. Therefore, what people have to do is to be strategic and cross-field. Think more deeply about the direction.
Creative careers are irreplaceable
The "Five Second Rule" also shows that if your work involves careful thinking, thorough reasoning or complex decision-making, each specific judgment is not The human brain can complete it in 5 seconds. So, with current technology, such work is difficult to be replaced by machines.
There are already writing programs in the field of news reporting. Some sports events, quarterly financial reports, stock market analysis, etc. can be completed by machines, but it is difficult to face complex analysis and interpretation in multiple fields. "For example, what impact does Trump's tax cut policy have on Sino-US relations? This issue spans politics, economics and Sino-US relations. It may take 10 years for AI to complete such a report. And like David Brooks of the New York Times "AI may never be able to write columns, or Pulitzer Prize-winning works."
Similarly, complex and creative jobs such as composers, directors, screenwriters, and teachers will only be possible in the future. Use artificial intelligence to improve work efficiency, but it will basically not be replaced by machines. In addition, although some jobs may seem simple and do not require particularly complex decisions at work, they require repeated communication with people and are difficult to be replaced by artificial intelligence. For example, service industries such as nursing staff are such occupations.
“For artificial intelligence, I think it means knowing yourself and the enemy. If the machine is not good at doing something, I will do more of it.” Kai-fu Lee pointed out that machines are not good at delving deeply into a field. What is more important is that the machine can really cannot replace human aesthetics. "Therefore, when considering the future education of children, we should guide them to develop in an all-round way, do what they love to do, cross fields, and be more diligent."
When talking about people's panic about artificial intelligence technology, Kai-fu Lee said , most of the panic comes from the incomprehension of artificial intelligence, which is just a tool of human beings. "All the artificial intelligence algorithms and applications we see today fall into the category of weak artificial intelligence, which is artificial intelligence that focuses on and can only solve problems in specific fields, such as AlphaGo. People tend to regard weak artificial intelligence as a tool for humans. Rather than seeing it as a threat.”
Today’s artificial intelligence has made rapid local progress in many vertical fields, but the overall development of artificial intelligence, especially the most significant technological breakthroughs, is more advanced than ever. Most people’s predictions came late. "Until today, we dare not say when artificial intelligence will truly be able to talk freely like adults. Therefore, even by today's standards, the development of weak artificial intelligence still has a long way to go, and humans are far from super artificial intelligence. The threat of intelligence is still quite far away.”
As for the problems caused by artificial intelligence replacing human jobs, Kai-fu Lee pointed out that those work skills that can be learned only through repeated practice will definitely be replaced by artificial intelligence. However, there are many skills that are unique to people and require the use of comprehensive qualities that cannot be replaced. In addition, new types of work will emerge as new ways of collaboration between humans and machines arise.
“In the short term, the development of artificial intelligence will bring a certain degree of pain, and it may be difficult to avoid local unemployment in certain industries and regions. But in the long term, this kind of work transformation It is by no means a catastrophic event marked by large-scale unemployment, but a re-adjustment of human social structure and economic order. Based on the adjustment, human work will be transformed into new types of work in large numbers, thereby further liberating productivity. To further improve human life, we will lay a better foundation.”
“The idea of ??artificial intelligence in the 1990s was different from that now. Humans found the rules and programmed them to feed the machines, but humans actually didn’t understand them. Because of the complex rules of our own brains, we cannot effectively educate machines." Yu Liang, an associate researcher at the China Research Institute of Fudan University, believes that with the improvement of big data technology and computing power, humans have begun to let machines learn from massive data (human behavior records) on their own. ), the generated patterns and rules are far more than what humans can find. He pointed out that today, when Internet+, big data and artificial intelligence have become national strategies, there should also be a national system-level response plan to labor occupational issues. At the same time, in the education system, from basic education for children to vocational education for adults, new technological methods such as artificial intelligence should be introduced in both form and content.