Yesterday, that 7 days ago to go "registered shaking" friends back, downcast, a look at his demeanor, I know did not shake. After coming back, he was full of complaints, he said: this property supply 80 sets of houses, in the registration lottery, reached more than 500 people, the probability of each person to win only 16%, so low probability, want to a time to get, really have a certain degree of difficulty. So my friend summarized a sentence: under the lottery system, even if you have more money, you may not be able to buy a house.
In addition, let him feel indignant and another thing, that is, online experts everywhere in the "real estate downturn, new home sales can not fall" news, but the reality is just the opposite, in the face of the just opened the new building, the people who grabbed the house is not happy, not the slightest intention to stop, and even more so, do not see a hint of "hard to sell". The situation of the "difficult to sell" in the slightest.
On-line information and off-line the actual appearance of the two skin, in fact, the experts say white lies, or shaking the number of people there are false? The finger wenjun think, in fact, the Academy of Social Sciences in early 2021 has long given the answer, the Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy released "China Housing Report 2021" in the clearly put forward, the future development of real estate will show "differentiated growth" situation, on the one hand, the first and second tier cities, On the one hand, the first and second tier cities, core cities, high-quality location of the house still has a lot of space to rise; on the other hand, the third and fourth tier cities, inferior real estate, poor-quality real estate or the house or the price of the situation back down, the rate of decline or more than expected.
指闻君认为，商品房的本质也是一种商品，既然是商品，那么要遵循最基本的价值规律，优质的房子具备3个20%的原则（20%的楼盘、20%的城市、20%的地段），剩下的80%房子更多多或少少都存在一定的缺点。 From the reality, the reason why the property will be sold by lottery, the key reason is that the property is in the "limit purchase, limit price" within the scope of control, which means that the region of the house there is a high fever, if not lottery can not be suppressed.
So, as 2021 draws to a close, 2022 has come into view, a new question in front of the various buyers: 2022 should buy a house? Where will the property market go? The recent series of signals show that next year or "the first welcome to the house back to the tide", 5 days, the central media 3 times state the property market, the direction is clear.
In most people's eyes, this time the full cut, means that the property market or ushered in a new wave of benefits, seems to be catching up with the international "real estate fever" prelude, if in accordance with the basic pace of the international real estate fever, with the emergence of a new round of large-scale water release, then the real estate will become the inevitable end.
Knowledge Expansion:
In 2020, the world suffered a black swan, in the mainstream countries, all of them are clear downward, the United States, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, France, etc. GDP fell. And by the second half of 2020 and 2021, as the impact of the reduction, how to boost the economic growth rate, how to ensure that the level of income of residents to improve has become a big problem in front of each country.
In the end, everyone gave the same answer: Currency water, the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan coincidentally opened the printing machine, a time when the international capital markets began to flood. Once the money increased, then the hands of the paper money began to become worthless, the people are not stupid, so how to preserve the value of the assets in the hands of it? Most people chose to buy a house. When everyone has gone to the housing market, the real estate sales price also began to push up quickly. A couple in Seoul, South Korea, said they were ready to move out of the city, where houses have risen by more than 15 percent in 2021 and are unaffordable, and where more than 3.4 million people have chosen to settle in other cities in the past few years because of the difficulty of buying a house.
In addition to Seoul, South Korea, the rest of the world's major cities real estate is also rapidly pushing up, Egypt, India, Japan, Tokyo, the United States, New York, Canada and so on, without exception, the average rate of increase of 9% or so, and some even directly as high as 50%, to the past 10 years of suppressed the price range of a one-time make up.
So, with the arrival of China's 1.2 trillion dollar downgrade, the property market or really ushered in a "rising tide"? The central media gave a negative answer, in the "at this time to cut rates, the release of what signal? A paper pointed out that the release of funds is mainly for the real economy industry, and real estate relations are not so big.
Second, December 5, Xinhua News Agency published "Evergrande problem disposal a key step". On December 3, Evergrande officially announced that it had formally defaulted on a $260 million debt and would be unable to repay the huge debt. $260 million translates to as much as 1.65 billion yuan. Compared to the nearly 2 trillion yuan of Evergrande's own debt, 1.65 billion yuan can be said to be one hair of the nine cattle, but can play a domino effect, the financial institutions of the external borrowing of debt will generally agree that "once the judgement of the enterprise mismanagement or management of the big changes in the loan has an impact on the time, the party has the right to declare the borrowing maturity."
After Evergrande's $260 million debt default, many of its creditors or have begun to become birds of a feather, industry insiders believe that Evergrande's future debt expiration or come and go. As for the question of where Evergrande should go, some say it may be reorganized, some say it may be merged and acquired. In this matter, the central media Xinhua News Agency in the above article shows a clear attitude:
1, Evergrande's this kind of mine, in the real estate industry is just an example, not universal. Evergrande's main embarrassing end mainly comes from its own mismanagement, blind expansion, diversification and irrational operation led to, and is not the case of the entire property market, other real estate enterprises performance is still solid.
2, for the Evergrande thing, how to deal with, will be out of relief? Xinhua News Agency similarly pointed out that to be handled according to market rules, the rule of law, which means that there will be no artificial intervention component, how it is, even if it was once the universe of real estate enterprises, if the operation can not go on, the fall on the fall it. Individual companies fell, but the majority of companies are still very solidly forward.
3, the relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China when talking about Evergrande. Said that from 2020 to 2021, individual real estate enterprises did have a series of situations such as poor capital and poor turnover. But after the second half of 2021, the People's Bank of China has changed its attitude towards real estate funding, and began to gradually adjust the scale of credit in the housing market, and at this stage, under reasonable financial support, real estate land sales, property construction, property sales and purchases have been restored to a basically normal level.
Third, on December 7, the Economic Daily News once again published an article referring to the previous day's high-level meeting on the real estate tone. In this meeting, there are 2 information worth looking at home buyers, the first is to increase the construction of security housing, the Ministry of Housing and Construction Qin Hong has repeatedly mentioned that the future of the construction of a four-in-one housing security system, on the one hand, the commercial housing is mainly the purchase and rental of market-oriented system, on the other hand, is the public housing, **** have property rights, low-cost housing, affordable housing and other housing is mainly the main security purchase and rental system, not only to meet the rich, but also to meet the needs of the people who have a lot of money to buy and rent. and rental housing system, not only to meet the needs of the rich, but also to meet the housing needs of urban low-income people.
At the same time, the "virtuous cycle of real estate". Experts pointed out that in recent years, real estate has been the "three stability", "not to real estate as a means of stimulating the economy" on the lips, but also as the main goal of property regulation and control to promote.
This meeting, however, put forward a virtuous cycle, which means that, for the future of the real estate market, on the one hand, to protect the sound credit support, on the other hand, to guard against the financial risks brought about by the housing market. In the short term, because of the financial tightening, resulting in real estate companies continue to compete for price cuts, so that local cities need to borrow "limit the decline" to protect the price stability, and in the "conscience cycle" initiative, credit balance, too hot and too cold or no longer exist.
After reading the above series of new information (the central media 3 times to state the property market), you still think that the housing market in 2022 will be as real estate agents say that ushered in the tide of recovery? The point of view given by the Winkler is just the opposite, the wind has changed, the house "rebound tide" or disappear.