Hello everyone, today is New Year's Day, the first day of 2019.

2018 is finally over, this year is a year of wealth shrinkage, we have experienced the A-share crash, P2P mines, stock pledges, the decline of the RMB, trade friction and other things that make investors solid.

Whether it's the stock assets of ordinary small retailers, large shareholders, or the ambitious ambitions of capitalists, all in this year, things like a spring dream without trace.

However, in the eyes of one person, all of this is long predestined "destiny and reincarnation". He is the former CITIC Capital chief economist Zhou Jintao, who died two years ago.

Zhou Jintao year, there is a famous saying called "life wealth by Kang Bo", meaning that everyone's wealth accumulation, must not think that you are more capable, wealth accumulation comes entirely from the economic cycle of movement of time to give you the opportunity.

This era, if you want to earn a little money, hard work probability can do without worrying about food and clothing, but want to earn big money on the pinnacle of the life, more still have to rely on the trend.

Zhou Jintao teacher once in 2007 because of the successful prediction of the subprime mortgage crisis, the so-called Kang Bo recession and fame. And in 2016 has predicted the bear market in 2018, the market prophecy is gradually confirmed, there are still some prophecies to be confirmed. One of the most important prophecies is:

For people over 40, the first chance in life is in 2008, the second chance is in 2019, and the last one is near 2030, and if you can catch it once you will be able to become a middle-class person;

For those who were born after 1985, and are now under the age of 30, the first chance in life can only come in 2019.

Global stock markets in 2018

In 2018, A shares showed a step-down trend, the SSE index accumulated a decline of 24.59%, and the SZSE index fell by 34.42%, which are the second largest decline in history.

Individual stocks, in 2018, only 295 stocks stock prices to achieve a rise, accounting for 8.27%, if we exclude the new shares listed in 2018, the number of individuals to achieve a rise in 2018 will fall to 220, accounting for 6.35%.

The SME index accumulated a 37.75% decline in the first place, the SSE 50 index accumulated a decline of 19.83%, a relatively small decline.

In 2018, the total market capitalization of A shares shrunk by 13.76 trillion yuan, of which the Shanghai market decreased by 6.67 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market decreased by 7.09 trillion yuan.

In terms of public equity funds, it is surprising that no stock fund had a positive return in 2018.

Even the pursuit of absolute return of the private equity fund, it is difficult to get rid of the fate of "watching the sky eat". The year of suffering, to now come to see, this year's loss is very heavy.

Golden Axe data show that, as of mid-December, included in the statistics of 288 stock multi-short products, its average loss of 11.01%; 317 portfolio funds with an average loss of 6.09%, 500 composite strategy funds with an average loss of 6.05%, 143 macro-strategy funds with an average loss of 3.33%.

And according to statistics, the global stock market has plummeted by nearly $12 trillion in market capitalization over the past year. Such a large shrinkage in market capitalization is the largest since the financial crisis and the second largest on record. If you calculate from the peak in January 2018, the market capitalization loss of the global stock market is even more staggering, reaching $20 trillion.

In the US, for all of 2018, the S&P lost 6.24%, the Dow lost 5.63%, and the Nasdaq lost 3.88%, all of which were the largest annual percentage declines since 2008.

European stock markets, the European STOXX 600 index cumulative decline of about 13% for the year, the worst performance since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. For its part, eurozone stocks posted their biggest annual decline since 2011.

France's CAC 40 index fell 10.95% for the year. The FTSE 100 index in the United Kingdom fell 12.5%, the largest annual decline since 2008.

2019, may be your biggest opportunity

Now, stepping into the first day of 2019, let's revisit the year Zhou Jintao's most classic speech. Regarding 2019, the famous prophecy of Zhou Jintao, "the king of the cycle" in his lifetime, is as follows:

In the opinion of Zhou Jintao, the former chief economist of CITIC CITIC Investment, the accumulation of wealth comes entirely from the opportunities given to you at the time of the movement of the economic cycle. All an investor can do is to grasp the trend and inflection point of the cycle movement and go with the trend.2018-2019 is the black year of the Compo cycle, the worst stage among 60 years, and 2019 should be seized as an opportunity to buy at a low point.

Zhou Jintao's speech in March 2016, "Life is a Konbo", the fund organized some of the views, to give you some reference in 2019 on the road to investment.

1, 60 years of economic cycles: life has three wealth opportunities

The accumulation of wealth of each of us, must not think that you are more capable, the accumulation of wealth comes entirely from the economic cycle of movement of the time to give you the opportunity.

For example, in the past ten years, the typical of China's wealth is the coal boss, surely everyone in the heart that the coal boss is certainly not as capable as me. The reason why he became a coal boss is because of the opportunity given by the timing. According to Kondratieff's theory, this is a bull market in commodities, which gives coal bosses a chance to get rich.

A person's life in the opportunity to get, theoretically speaking, only three times, if each opportunity is not caught, you are sure that the wealth of a lifetime is gone. If you grab one of those opportunities, you'll be able to be at least middle class.

The trajectory of wealth in our lives is well documented. The trajectory of wealth in life is the Kondratieff cycle.

The longest cycle in the world's cyclical economic movement is the Kondratieff cycle, which is a cycle that occurs once every 60 years. We all know that 60 years is a person's natural life expectancy is 60 years, China said 60 A, cycle once is a Kondratieff cycle. It is divided into rebound, boom, recession, depression.

2, people over 40 years old, the second chance in 2019

With my long-term research words, the opportunity of your life is basically given by the movement of the Kombo.

Ten years ago you got a job in CITIC Securities is not too important, everyone ten years ago to buy a house next to the CITIC Securities is really important, because the CITIC is in Chaoyangmen, Beijing, and now the house is up ten times, everyone earn ten years can not earn. The wealth of life is not by salary, but by your investment in asset prices.

Your investment in asset prices is the law of time? It must be a low point to buy in order to make sense, this time to buy into the house these do not make much sense. In a person's life of 60 years, of which 30 years to participate in economic life, 30 years in the Compo gives you the opportunity to wealth only three times, not by your subjective will.

The first opportunity in life for people over 40 is in 2008, if you buy stocks and houses at that time, your life is very successful. the last opportunity in life before 2008 was in 1999, and not many people in their 40s seized that opportunity, so 2008 is the first opportunity.

The second chance is in 2019, the last one is near 30 years, and to be able to catch it once you can become middle class, and that's the reason why life is rich by kombucha.

Warren Buffett is nothing, why he can invest successfully, the reason is that he was born in the fifth cycle of the rebound phase of the Compaq, so he can be successful, if now the same will not be successful, this is a predestined decision.

Why that era of the United States will appear Bill Gates, because the technology unfolded in that era, and now China can not come out of Bill Gates, your life chances by the movement of the Convoy decided that some people feel that they are very cattle, a great deal of ability to make a lot of money, in fact, everyone is in the life of the operation. This is the point that I believe very much after studying the economic cycle, human life is predestined.

The simplest is that people born after 1985, now under 30 years old, destined for the first time in your life opportunities can only appear in 2019, before the age of 35, so now 25 to 30 years old, the next 5 years, can only rely on good work. Because buying a house is nothing, it is determined by the fate of your life's wealth, this is no way out.

What I mean is that when we do life wealth planning, we must know that everyone is running in the big system of society, the big system of society to give you the time opportunity, you have the time opportunity. This big system did not give you the opportunity, you in this regard again efforts are useless.

Last year (note 2015) I resigned only as chief economist, the reason is because I think the next four years, do things more difficult than the past six years. And before a depression is imminent, a society is bound to have divisive tendencies, as can be seen in the theory, so it's normal to have some tendencies in politics.

In this case, there are only two choices in your life: one choice is to be a dummy job like me, and to fool around every day, come out and fool around in a good mood, and stay at home in a bad mood, which is a choice; the other choice is that the future must be a time of heroes, and you can become a forefather or a martyr, which is another life path that can be chosen in the future.

I think the next four years is really the time when society will change a lot, especially for those who were born after 1985, it is true that the biggest opportunity of your life is coming. That's how I see the future.

3. Two Ways to Destroy Middle Class Wealth

Which phenomenon is going to happen before the depression phase of Compo that the world is supposed to enter after 2015? This phenomenon I believe we have all seen, we feel that there is a lot of liquidity in the hands of everyone, everyone this liquidity in the past 6 years also through speculation in the stock market to make money, everyone in 2015 began to not make money.

What to do? I need to preserve the value of the money in my hands, so we have thought of a way to buy into the core area of the first-tier cities real estate. The second way to engage in some emerging industries, many people invested a lot of new three boards. From my heart, both of these approaches are ways to eliminate the wealth of the middle class.

My own investment discipline is the first after 2014 not to buy real estate, now is China's real estate cycle rebound stage, is only a small handful of up, so what we see must be a rebound in the bear market. What to do? Sell, should not buy, speculation in stocks all understand one of the simplest truth. So now it should be real estate to cash in the stage.

The second emerging industry that everyone is chasing, because I am researching the long wave theory, I see very clearly, in fact, the so-called Internet +, is this Kangbo technological innovation, information technology, the final stage of maturity.

As we all know, the information technology explosion period in the 80s, 90s in the United States dominated the country's unfolding period. When the technology from the dominant country conduction to China, China is the current round of Kang wave in the catch-up people, conduction to China spread to every corner of life, then you think this technology has what future to speak of?

When the penetration of a technology in a catching-up country reaches a pervasive point, it must have reached the final stage of its life cycle, and the technology is followed by a trend of maturity and decline.

So, I told my friends, 2016 and 2017 is the new three boards to cash stage, can cash depends on your fate, this thing is not I can sway. People should not think that it must be cashed.

When people see these two phenomena, it means that Kangbo is going to enter a depression, and you suddenly realize that after a stagflation, 2016 to 2017 is a stagflation, a stagflation that finds that the illiquid assets you hold in your hands may not be wanted.

After this phase, there will be a monetary annihilation mechanism, which is that the prices of these assets will go down, and that's what Combo theory tells us.

Every Combo depression is a stagflation unfolding, and after stagflation comes the phase of elimination of inflation. So, in the future, people may suddenly feel that they don't have enough or no liquid assets in their hands. That's what makes people rush to issue debt, you can have cash flow to use or even buy assets at now low prices. By 2025, it's all about the Fifth Compo Depression phase.

The fourth Conboy depression was in the 1977s, and the third was in the 1922s, which was the Great Depression in the U.S. Conboy theory describes a set of long-term workings of the world economy.

4, 2019 housing prices will be a low point

The real estate cycle turns once in 20 years, and one can run into two real estate cycles. Why? A person's life as a group will be two times to buy a house, the first time is when you get married, the average age of 27 years old, the second time is the second home purchase, the improvement of the demand is about 42 years old. A person's consumption peak, the highest peak appeared in 46 years old, 46 years old after the person's consumption will go down, your consumption gradually by the house these into medical care.

The house is roughly consumed twice in a lifetime, about 20 years at a time. The real estate cycle is a 20-year cycle. China's current real estate cycle opened in 1999, according to the law of the real estate cycle is divided into three waves, the first wave of 2000 to 2007, 2009, after a wave of up, 2013, 2014, a wave, three waves up, the national real estate cycle of the high point of the judgment is in 2014, this is the high point of China's real estate cycle, the back of the price down.

However, by 2015 when everyone suddenly found that the house is good for sale again, in 2016, the core area of the first-tier cities real estate soared, but this is not real estate restart, but the wave. The houses in the third and fourth tier cities can go up to be a bull market, junk stocks do not go up, a handful of stocks go up is not a bull market, this is a wave rebound in the real estate cycle.

So, near the first half of 2017, this rally in China will end. If you own a little bit of real estate in the core area of the city and it's not a homeowner's home, I think it should be sold within the next year, and that's my advice for everybody.

After you sell your house, you find that you can buy a lot of very cheap assets, the value for money has changed, and that's the real estate cycle. Don't think that real estate is sold and bought back, there is no such thing in this world that only goes up and not down. 2019 home prices will be a low point, 2017, 2018 home prices are to fall back. The cycle of a real estate cycle is like this, a 20-year cycle, 15 years up, 5 years down, the same in the United States.

The U.S. house started to fall in 2007, and it bottomed out near 2011. People to the United States to buy a house is a little different, my research is mainly global broad asset allocation, the United States and Europe are studied, China in the world's Eastern Hemisphere, the United States in the Western Hemisphere, East and West Hemisphere real estate cycle starting point of the difference between ten points.

The starting point of China's real estate is 2000, the United States is 2010, after 2010, the United States appeared in the house of the bull market, 2017 is the first wave of highs, if you buy a house in the United States, you can also wait a little longer, and now is also the first wave of highs. People will not be trapped even if they buy now, because the upturn is not over.

Speaking as a broad public, no matter how your knowledge is, you are no different from Big Momma. It means that this kind of thing has nothing to do with IQ, this is the opportunity of your life is to see if you can grasp.

5, the final low point in 2019

That low point may be far lower than everyone imagined

By the middle of 2017, we can know that my judgment is right or wrong. I had judged in 2007 that there would be a Kondratieff cycle recession one shock in 2008, the subprime crisis that everyone saw.

In October 2014, I published a report that the second shock occurred in the second quarter of 2015, after the second quarter of the stock market crash, the yuan depreciation, these are all laws, the movement of asset prices is never part of the law, this is all everyone can see.

Mid-2017, after the third quarter, we will see asset prices in China and the United States fall across the board, with a final low in 2019. That low point could be far lower than everyone thinks. That's what we can tell you now about the Convoy Theory.

A Convoy movement is driven by technological innovation, and this Convoy started to pick up in 1982, and as you know 1975 to 1982 was the depression phase of the last Convoy.

If you know the world's economic history should know that global stagflation, the United States and the United Kingdom to do supply-side reform. I see that we are very giddy negotiations on the issue of supply-side reform, supply-side reform is a sign of global entry into the depression, it seems that there is no need to be giddy, in fact, really talk about supply-side reform, must enter the depression.

The boom was the U.S. information technology bubble from 1991 to 1994, a sign of the Compo boom, and when the bubble burst in the U.S., the economy grew for another seven or eight years behind it.

So, before 2008 is the golden phase of this Convoy of the world economy, from 2004 to 2015 should be the recession of this Convoy, the recession can be seen is that, although the economic growth is not good, but we are still able to get a lot of significance from the price of the assets, this we can feel. For example, our stock market, bond market, since 2009, the big picture is an uptrend, are profitable, this is the recessionary phase in the Convoy.

6, preservation of value and liquidity is the core issue of the next five years

The next five years is the decline in assets, this time we try to hold the liquidity of the assets, and do not hold illiquid assets. Like the high house is illiquid assets, and the primary market equity is also illiquid assets.

Why mention the new three board, because the liquidity is very poor, want to sell very difficult to sell. In the future investment, we must pay attention to, make money is not important, the first goal is to preserve the value, the second is liquidity. These two are the next five years when you invest I think we must pay very close attention to one, should be a core issue.

This is the use of Kondratieff theory of life planning. 60 years of movement, will set three real estate cycle, 20 years fluctuations once, a real estate cycle set two fixed asset investment cycle, ten years fluctuations once. A fixed asset investment cycle sets three inventory cycles.

So, your life is a con wave, three real estate cycles, nine fixed asset investment cycles and eighteen inventory cycles, people's life is such a process.

There are a lot of people who post different views than me, the cycle is going to change sides, some people post such views, in fact, these are rebuttals to my views, it does not matter, we can look at it with the future time.

7, work out and come back in 2019

One thing I want to remind you about the future is that 2018 to 2019 is the flat year of the Compo cycle, the worst phase of the 60-year period, so be sure to control the risks in 2018 and 2019. Make adequate cash provisions before then, you can issue debt now and still have cash five years from now.

For individuals, this year next year, sell investment real estate and NSS equity, buy gold, take a two-year vacation, exercise, and come back in 2019, this is the future of life planning for everyone.

(Source: China Fund News)

(Original title: the first day of the new year, revisit the "cycle of heavenly kings" Zhou Jintao: life is only three times the wealth of opportunities, 2019 will appear once)