Recently, housing loan interest rates in Shenzhen have been reduced for the second time this month. The first set of minimum enforceable benchmarks for many banks has been reduced by 5%, and the second set of minimum enforceable benchmarks for interest rates has been raised by 10%.
Prior to this, in early March, some banks raised the lowest executable benchmark for first-home loan interest rates by 8% and the lowest executable benchmark for second-home loan interest rates by 12%.
At the same time, Guangzhou’s mortgage interest rates also show some signs of falling. At present, Guangzhou's bank mortgage interest rates can be implemented as low as 3% above the benchmark. For example, if a deposit of 500,000 yuan at Guangzhou HSBC Bank lasts for 3 months, the benchmark interest rate will increase by 3%; if a deposit of 200,000 yuan lasts for 3 months, the benchmark interest rate will rise by 3.5%. In addition, large banks have sufficient quotas and are lending faster and faster.
How long will the downward trend in mortgage interest rates in Shenzhen and Guangzhou continue? Will it return to the era of discounts? Is now a good time to enter the market for those who are in urgent need? Many bankers and real estate analysts told reporters from the Economic Observer that it is unlikely that mortgage interest rates will go up in 2019. It is not entirely certain whether the 15% off and 95% off discounts will be returned in the future, but as With the change in the tone of real estate regulation and the possibility of further RRR cuts by the central bank, housing loans may be able to return to the benchmark interest rate.
Guangzhou-Shenzhen mortgage interest rate cut
“At the beginning of the new year in February this year, the Shenzhen Branch of Hangzhou Bank implemented the benchmark interest rate and raised the interest rate for first home loans to 8% in order to attract customers. At that time, the four major banks still implemented a 10% increase in the benchmark interest rate. Starting from the beginning of March, we adjusted the benchmark interest rate from an increase of 10% to an increase of 5%. %, as long as there are no problems with the credit report, the new standards will be implemented," a personal loan manager from a branch of China Construction Bank in Shenzhen told a reporter from the Economic Observer.
In addition to the CCB Shenzhen region, reporters from the Economic Observer learned from many banks in Shenzhen that there are signs of overall loosening of housing loan interest rates in Shenzhen. The personal housing loan interest rates of major banks in Shenzhen have been lowered around the beginning of March. Among them, the benchmark for first-home loans in Shenzhen of the four major banks was adjusted from an increase of 10% to an increase of 5%, and the interest rate for second-home loans was reduced from an increase of 15% to an increase of 10%. The first set of minimum execution benchmark interest rates of Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank of China is 5%, and the second set of minimum execution benchmark interest rates is 11%-15%. In addition, according to Rong360 data monitoring, many other banks such as China Merchants Bank, China Minsheng Bank, China CITIC Bank, Guangfa Bank, Industrial Bank, etc. have also made the same adjustments since last week. In fact, some banks in Shenzhen have lowered mortgage interest rates for the second time this month. For example, China Guangfa Bank and China CITIC Bank had adjusted the lowest executable benchmark for the first set of interest rates to an increase of 8%, and the lowest executable benchmark for the second set of interest rates to an increase of 12% in early March.
If you calculate the account with a loan of 1 million yuan and a term of 20 years: According to the repayment method of equal principal and interest, and based on the interest rate increased by 10%, the monthly repayment is 6816.89 yuan, and the total interest paid is about is 636,100 yuan. Now adjusted to an increase of 5%, the monthly repayment required is 6,677.14 yuan, and the total interest paid over the past 20 years is approximately 602,500 yuan. This also means that the first loan of 1 million yuan to buy a house at the beginning of this year is more expensive than the monthly loan at the beginning of last year. The debt is 139.75 yuan less, and the interest payment is 33,600 yuan less in 20 years.
While Shenzhen’s housing loan interest rates were lowered, there was also news that Guangzhou’s housing loan interest rates were loosening. However, a reporter from the Economic Observer visited major bank outlets in Guangzhou and found that the mortgage interest rates of major banks in Guangzhou generally increase by 10% for the first set and 10-15% for the second set. In particular, relevant people from the branches of the four major banks told reporters Interest rates remain at the original level and no relevant adjustment policies have been received.
However, some joint-stock banks and foreign-funded banks have given preferential policies on first-time home interest rates. Bankers believe that the current quotas are relatively loose and they also want to win more customers. "Customers above VIP with a deposit of 500,000 can apply for an 8% increase in the base interest rate. Those who cannot meet the conditions will have an increase of 10%. This preferential policy was only issued two weeks ago. It has always been an increase of 10%-15%." A personal loan manager from a branch of China CITIC Bank in Guangzhou told a reporter from the Economic Observer. Guangfa Bank's first home loan interest rate can also be increased by 5%, but customers are required to purchase a critical illness insurance product that is 6% of the loan amount. Compared with the first two companies, CMB’s discounts are more powerful. Starting from the end of 2018, customers in Guangzhou who apply for a first home loan and have no problem with their credit report can unconditionally achieve 8%.
According to the monitoring of CRIC Guangzhou, a real estate big data application service provider, in terms of second-home loan interest rates, four banks, Bank of China, Ping An, CITIC, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, still implement an increase of more than 20%, and the remaining increase ranges are mainly concentrated in Increase by 15%. In addition to falling loan interest rates, the pace of lending is also getting faster. Personal loan managers from several bank branches in Guangzhou told reporters from the Economic Observer that the lending speed has accelerated compared with before the Spring Festival. If the information is complete, it will be approved in about three days. If the personal transfer is quick, the bank will receive the new real estate certificate. After that, the loan is usually released within a week, or as quickly as three or four days. “In fact, there has been a downward trend from the end of 2018 to now. The reserve requirement ratio has been lowered five times from 2018 to now. Market liquidity is looser than before, and banks lend more funds than before.
"Xiao Wenxiao, Chief Analyst of CRIC Guangzhou Region, observed that in 2019, the government's attitude towards real estate has changed. In the first two years, the tone of real estate regulation was "houses cannot be speculated and the rise in housing prices is restrained." This has changed since 2019. In order to "stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations," the focus of the entire market regulation is stability. Xiao Wenxiao said that Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other regions have made some optimization and adjustments to the real estate market, including partial relaxations. In fact, commercial banks will also do so. Feeling some changes in the market, the policy tilt is a bit more relaxed than before.
There is more water in the pool
“There was a time when first home loans in Shenzhen were available at a discount. I witnessed the benchmark interest rate drop by 15% more than three years ago, then rise by 15%, and then rise by 10% starting from the second half of last year. I also bought a house with a loan when it was at a high last year. "The above-mentioned personal loan manager of a branch of China Construction Bank in Shenzhen told reporters.
In 2015, Shenzhen implemented the new policy for second-home properties. Many banks reduced the down payment from 70% to 40%. At the same time, they also further adjusted Many mortgage rates have been reduced to 82% off for first-time home loans, and major banks have also offered preferential interest rates as low as 15% off, setting a record low for first-time home loan interest rates. This preferential intensity continues until 2017 In 2017, a 10% discount was generally implemented, and some banks offered even greater discounts. With the increase in capital costs in 2017, this preferential mortgage interest rate became a thing of the past. Some banks in Shenzhen have raised the first home loan interest rate from 10% to 10%. 9.5% off. After the May Day holiday, some banks in Shenzhen implemented a 1.1 times interest rate for first-time home loans. Entering 2018, the government insisted on "housing is for living, not for speculation" and strictly implemented real estate policies such as "price limits" while simultaneously "deleveraging" finance. The effect of this is gradually emerging in the real estate industry. The four major state-owned banks, some joint-stock banks and other banks have all raised the interest rates on first-home loans in Shenzhen by 15%, and the interest rates on second-home loans in Guangzhou have increased by 20%. In the past three or four years, there have been many "jumps". At the beginning of 2016, the mainstream first-home loan interest rate in Guangzhou was 15% off, with the lowest discount being 12% off. Two years later, four state-owned banks in Guangzhou simultaneously offered discounts. It has been announced that the interest rates for first-home mortgages will rise by 10%, and the interest rates for second-home mortgages will rise by 15%.
Many bankers and real estate analysts told reporters from the Economic Observer that mortgage interest rates will go up in 2019. It is unlikely. It is not entirely certain whether the 15% off and 15% off discounts will be returned in the future, but it is very likely that the benchmark interest rate will be returned.
Xiao Wenxiao believes that there will be room for a reduction this year. In his view, the task of stabilizing economic growth this year is very important, and the emphasis is on appropriateness. At the local government level, real estate has a relatively high contribution to the economy, and there will still be some relaxation of "city-specific policies". Real estate has always been a strictly controlled industry, but as long as the water injected into the pool becomes larger, some of it can still flow to related industries. He predicts that the reserve requirement ratio will be further reduced this year, and he does not rule out that more favorable housing prices will be provided for more reasonable housing needs. Space.
Cao Kaihong, director of transaction management of Midland Property, told a reporter from the Economic Observer that in the past period, the interest rate was too high and the pressure for housing supply was too great. Now the reduction in mortgage interest rates also supports the first home, responding to the "House Use" A response to the policy of "living in", the market has settled for so long, and all the water has been squeezed out. Now is a better buying period for those with urgent needs. "With the release of the Greater Bay Area Outline, the Bay Area is more popular than a year ago. As a result, some preferential policies have been canceled for some real estate projects. House prices are more important for people who are in urgent need. It is impossible not to buy a house just waiting for an interest rate discount. The interest rate is auxiliary and will not have much impact on their decision-making as long as it is not too high. "Xiao Wenxiao told a reporter from the Economic Observer.