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The structure of the interest rate determination theory of loanable funds, why do we generally ignore the loanable funds market, do not analyze the market?
This year's Government Work Report pointed out that the current systemic risk is generally controllable, but the accumulated risks of non-performing assets, bond defaults, shadow banking, Internet finance and other risks should be highly vigilant. Steady progress in the reform of the financial regulatory system, orderly resolution and disposal of outstanding risk points, rectify and standardize the financial order, and build a solid financial risk "firewall".

As a major hotspot in the field of Internet finance, P2P (online lending platform) risky events continue to erupt, making many investors feel uneasy. A few days ago, the much-anticipated online lending institutions funds depository policy finally came to fruition, the CBRC issued a letter requiring online lending institutions to separate their own funds, depository funds, separate accounting, to prevent the risk of misappropriation of online lending funds, the safe custody of customer transaction settlement funds. So, how big is the risk of online lending platform? Investors should pay attention to what "traps"? Our reporter conducted an investigation and interview.

Downward trend in interest rates, P2P investors are more cautious

"These platforms look good at this moment, the next second, I do not know how it will be, the money is placed there, the heart is very uneasy"

Beijing, a public relations company, Liu Liying, a P2P lending platform to invest in the "regular customers". "P2P just rise, she began to pay attention to, one after another in a number of platforms to test the water, to the hottest time in the 2015 online lending market, she at least 10 platforms on the flip-flop investment. Recently, she clearly felt that various P2P platforms are cooling down. "During the P2P boom, the industry's average yield was around 10 percent, and now yields are generally going down. I invested in a platform a year ago, and counting the extra bonus portion of the Spring Festival, the total yield was about 7 percent."

Said cooling, not only refers to the platform on the investment yield in the decline, but also includes various platforms seem to be more "quiet", unlike the previous big promotional cards, send a variety of gifts. Liu Liying has invested in a platform for a 3-month period of the standard, the investment amount as long as to 800,000 yuan, you can get a free Apple cell phone, and now can be so bold to send gifts is relatively rare. Years ago, she is familiar with a few platform "around", did not see the gift activities, promotional efforts than before a lot smaller.

As a senior P2P investor, Liu Liying has her own criteria for choosing a platform. "The yield is too high platform can not be selected. Borrowers have to pay both the return of investors, but also to shell out the service fee charged by the platform. If the interest rate is too high, which industry yield can cover this financing cost? It feels like taking the money to run away at any time."

The monthly report released by the Home of Internet Lending jointly with Yingcan Consulting shows that in February this year, the comprehensive yield of the online lending industry was 9.51%, a year-on-year decline of 235 basis points, and the mainstream comprehensive yield range is still distributed in the 8%-12%, with the platform accounting for 53.16% of the total.

"With the continuous rectification of the online lending industry, P2P online lending platforms have gradually improved in information disclosure, risk control measures and product innovation, attracting some new investors to join, but the number of borrowers has declined slightly, and the supply of funds is greater than the demand, pushing the online lending industry's composite yield downward, and by the end of 2016, the online lending industry's composite yield had fallen below 10 percent. The industry will gradually move towards standardization in the future, and after the market competition is relatively full, the interest rate level will still decline, but the rate of decline will not be too big." Shi Pengfeng, co-founder of the Home of Online Lending, said.

While the rate of return has fallen, but compared with other investment methods, the current P2P lending platform still has certain advantages. For example, the yield of 1-year bank financial products is only 5%, and the yield of P2P platforms will not be too much higher, but the term is shorter and can be redeemed in 1-3 months. Choosing shorter-term products is also a way for many investors to avoid risk, so they can get the proceeds and go.

Platform turmoil, there are a lot of investors began to "withdraw".

A network company clerk Wang Ning once invested in a few top-ranked platform, but from the end of last year, she pulled out the funds. "These platforms look good this moment, the next second do not know what will happen, and the interest rate is not much higher, it is better to put the money down in the bank, more worry. Now the government is rectifying these Internet financial platforms, wait for the rectification and then look at it." Wang Ning's idea represents the mentality of many investors.

The Internet lending industry began to shuffle, the problem platform surfaced

"The proportion of platforms in hiatus and suspension reached 35.7%, and the number of major risk events increased, 808 credit, e-speed loan and other platforms have been in trouble"

Regulatory policies came out intensively, and many Internet lending platforms became Some online lending platform frankly, now can not see the policy and industry wind direction, simply "nest", wait and see what happens. Data show that in February this year, the P2P lending industry turnover of 204.341 billion yuan, down 7.53%, turnover has fallen for two consecutive months.

Under regulatory pressure, the problem platform gradually surfaced, the industry's pre-accumulation of risk began to erupt. A report released by Zero2IPO Finance shows that there were as many as 1106 new problem platforms in 2016. Risk events mainly show two obvious characteristics: first, the proportion of platforms that are closed and suspended is still large, accounting for 35.7%; second, the number of major risk events has increased, for example, 808 credit, e speed loan, Sida investment, Guocheng Finance and other platforms have been in trouble one after another.

"There are four major risks in the P2P lending industry, the first is the moral risk of fraudulent operation of the platform. Second is the liquidity risk, if the investment users withdraw a large number of cash, it is likely to lead to some of the platform operation of the capital pool is drained. There is also the policy risk and the credit risk brought about by borrowers' non-payment." Xie Qun, chief executive officer of Cumulus Box, said.

How can we not "step on the mine" and avoid the risk platform? Industry insiders pointed out that the previous policy has made it clear that the nature of the information intermediary of the online lending platform, standardized P2P online lending platform does not absorb any deposits, and does not participate in the peer-to-peer market. Screening can look at several important criteria, such as registered capital, platform background, executive team and so on. You also have to look at the authenticity of the platform's products and labels to determine whether it has a purely online big data risk control capability and whether it touches the 12 red lines of online lending regulation, i.e., whether it is self-financing, whether it is setting up a capital pool, and whether it is the platform itself that provides the guarantee.

"At present, the average investor still lacks basic financial knowledge and risk management ability, investment is not rational enough, follow the wind investment more. Through this Internet financial special rectification, those platforms that can withstand the test will attract more investors; and poorly run platforms will also be the big wave of sand, out of the industry. This change is a rare investment education opportunity for investors to help them change their mindset of blindly pursuing high returns and establish a long-term investment philosophy." Huang Zhen, director of the Institute of Financial Law at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said.

The bank funds depository, investment is not into the "safe"

"P2P platform to sell the right products to the right people, not to the lack of risk-tolerant investors to sell inappropriate products. >Specialized remediation ended, the regulation did not relax. Xiamen, Guangdong, Shanghai and other places have recently introduced the interim measures for the record and registration management of online lending, the much-anticipated online lending institutions funds depository policy has also "boots on the ground".

Before the introduction of the depository policy, investors put money into the platform directly into the business account, and the enterprise's own funds mixed together, and each time you choose to invest in a specific project, the investor actually does not know whether the money in the borrower's account. Many problems platform is to take advantage of this to play the trick of self-financing, set up a false borrowing standard, said that the investor's money lent to a certain enterprise or individual, in fact, or in the platform's own pockets, and did not invest in a specific project. For example, the previous accident fast deer group, "in the Jin system" is this situation.

After the introduction of the depository policy, each investor will have their own exclusive account in the bank, each sum of money to get my confirmation, authorization, similar to the transfer of funds from the stock account, the bank and the online lending platform every day, but also to check the investor's account, to ensure that each sum of money can be traced. This is equivalent to the bank to the investor's funds on an insurance policy, can eliminate the risk of misappropriation of funds.