CITIC Securities: loose policy expectations correction, position adjustment game intensified
Easy policy expectations correction again, is expected to stabilize growth in the second half of the more important implementation rather than increase the code, the slope of the economic recovery began to slow down, policy expectations correction after the economy and corporate earnings forecast or sequential correction, institutional position into the high, the fund disclosure of second-quarter reports may increase psychological fluctuations induced adjustments. may increase the psychological fluctuations induced by the transfer of positions.
First of all, in the economy under multiple disturbances, the policy still maintains the force of determination, is expected to the end of the month Politburo meeting will continue the previous tone to grasp the implementation of the further increase in space is limited. Secondly, the pace of real estate restoration began to slow down, confidence in the full recovery still needs time, listed companies may face downward revision of earnings forecasts in the mid- to late-quarter of the reporting season. Overseas interest rate hikes may still exceed expectations, and the probability of entering recession next year continues to increase. Finally, the public equity fund position of nearly 15 years the highest, active private equity position also stepped into the high water mark, institutional positions in the industry distribution further concentration, high positions accounted for the short-term face of the industry to adjust the position of the game. Configuration, it is recommended to continue to adhere to the growth of manufacturing, pharmaceutical and consumer balanced configuration, short-term growth of manufacturing more inclined to semiconductor and military.
Guotai Junan Securities: layout rather than holding money, growth rather than value
Market adjustment is the opportunity to layout again. With the economic cycle related plate is difficult to see systematic improvement in expectations, growth style will not be switched to value, callbacks on the car to choose growth. Specifically, first, because the current macroeconomic policy as well as epidemic prevention and control policies are more relaxed than the first half of the year, the systemic risk perception declined, so the stock market adjustment is instead once again the layout of the industry rotation and look for income opportunities, rather than simply consider holding money. Secondly, the slower and weaker economic recovery precisely indicates that the structure of the stock market will be further differentiated. Divergence of earnings expectations between industries to widen, and the economic cycle is highly correlated with the value sector in the short term is difficult to appear systematic improvement in expectations, while demand for high boom technology growth and weak recovery structure of the more expansion capacity of the leading companies have a clear profitability advantage. Pullback is a better opportunity for stock layout, pullback on the car to choose growth.
Industry and investment theme: pullback layout growth and track leading stocks, optimistic about the new energy / military / Xinchuang / liquor / hotel / medicine. The next stage, two major investment themes are expected to continue to come out of the excess, the first category is the transformation of the background of new energy, digital economy, autonomous control and other science and technology new economic growth stocks; the second category to pay attention to the medium-term perspective of the stock economy under the expansion of competitive advantage, and the stock price has been fully adjusted track leading stocks. Recommended: 1) high boom growth: electric vehicles / photovoltaic / wind power / military / computer letter creation / digital industry; 2) consumer medicine and other track leading stocks: liquor / hotel / hogs / medical equipment / consumer health care / CDMO.
CITIC CITIC Securities: maintain patience, balanced allocation of the growth
Markets from the unilateral restoration period The market has entered a period of oscillation, verifying our previous judgment. Structurally, the new energy boom is expected to maintain a high degree of congestion in the rise, part of the consumer goods boom is expected to marginal improvement but the overall valuation of the attractiveness of not strong, the medicine boom marginal improvement logic is not strong, but the previous institutions continue to reduce the allocation. We believe that investors need to remain patient at this stage, relative income can consider a balanced allocation of growth, absolute income can consider a neutral position, waiting for external catalysts to significantly adjust the structure of the high beta; high boom growth.
Balanced allocation of growth, specifically, we believe that you can be in the main line of the growth style moderate balanced allocation of boom is expected to be stable or good medical, consumer growth stocks. For the fundamentals are expected to be stable, benefited from the direction of the cost downward should also consider increasing the allocation. Key industries: wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, batteries, military, food and beverage, medical services/medical beauty.
China Merchants Securities: two important meetings affect the direction and structure of A shares, the third quarter is crucial
This week, two important meetings may have an important impact on the direction and structure of the A shares, one of which is the Politburo meeting in the middle of the year to discuss the economy, at the current time China's economy is in the stabilizing rebound of the key window, the three quarters is crucial; the current Politburo meeting on the second half of the economy's growth rate is set, the relevant arrangements for stabilizing growth, policy guidance for the real estate sector, policy guidance for consumption and other new industry trends, may guide the second half of the A-share configuration of the important direction; second is the Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting, due to the June U.S. inflation again exceeded the expected rebound, the July 27th interest rate meeting to raise interest rates by 75 BP is the probability of the event, but it may be the case that the the tail end of the Fed's hawkish rate hike. U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar index is likely to enter a downward cycle after the rate hike, which is conducive to the future performance of A-shares, especially for the valuation of industries with higher boom.
In the second half of 2022, China's economy will enter a new credit upward cycle, the global economy is entering a recession, the U.S. bond yields are expected to top out. a shares will continue the previous trend, showing a shock upward trend, the whole year out of the radi;s probability of further enhancement. However, the second half of the industry configuration will be based on social financing and the strength of the economic recovery in two scenarios, in the case of strong liquidity weak recovery, the industry configuration to independent boom new industry trends as the main direction of attack, pan-energy and other areas worthy of sustained excavation; if the actual effect of stabilizing growth is more than expected, the new social financing growth rate to accelerate the improvement, it will be deduced that the social financing drive as the main line of the infrastructure chain, the real estate chain, the banking and insurance is expected to perform Better. Style will gradually evolve from small-cap growth to large-cap value.
Xingye Securities: the new half of the army uptrend is not over
Currently there is no systemic risk in the market, according to the judgment of the timing framework, the new half of the army uptrend is not over. 1) Short-term with the market shocks and styles of dispersal, the new half of the army crowdedness has been from the highs to decline. 2) The new half of the army is the first half of the army, the new half of the army, the new half of the army, the new half of the army is not over. Crowdedness is an important indicator that we exclusively constructed to reflect the trading sentiment of popular tracks. After a sharp rise in May and June, the crowdedness of the new half of the army has risen significantly from the bottom, which is the main reason for the recent high volatility of the stock price. But with the market shock and style rotation dispersion, the new half of the army congestion pressure has been released. 2) From the medium-term dimension, overseas U.S. bond interest rates shocked down, the domestic monetary environment has not stopped easing, the macro liquidity of the new half of the army is still supportive. Recently, the U.S. recession expectations continue to warm, the Fed rate hike is expected to weaken, driving the U.S. bond rates fell significantly; at the same time, the domestic macro liquidity continues to maintain loose, the monetary conditions index is currently at a nearly three-year high, and did not see the trend of tightening. 3) More importantly, the leading indicators also show that the new half of the army uptrend has not yet come to an end. Analysts expect the revised strength as we exclusively constructed as an important indicator to portray the boom and earnings, the unique feature of this indicator is that it is 80 trading days ahead of the new half of the army shares, and the current indicator shows that the uptrend of the new half of the army has not yet ended. Therefore, from the time frame, the new half of the army uptrend has not yet ended.
Configuration, focusing on the new half of the army of the strong (photovoltaic modules/inverters/photovoltaic equipment, wind power, new energy vehicles, new materials for the military industry, ultra-high voltage power transmission and distribution equipment) + boom rebound of the medicine and wine (medicine, home appliances, home, alcohol). In the medium and long term, the market style is expected to gradually return to science and technology growth. It is recommended to focus on six major directions of specialization: 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, ultra-high voltage, etc.), 2) a new generation of information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent numerically-controlled machine tools, robots, advanced railroad equipment, etc.), 4) biopharmaceuticals (innovative medicines, CXO, medical equipment and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) the military (missile), the military electronic components, military electronic components, home appliances, homes, wine. equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.), 6) food security (seed industry, biotechnology, fertilizer, etc.).
Guangdong Securities: market short-term twists and turns but does not change the oscillation upward trend, continue to pay attention to the proliferation of China's advantageous assets
This is a short-term twists and turns does not change the medium-term trend, comprehensive mid-term report and the fund configuration clues, continue to pay attention to the proliferation of China's advantageous assets. Overseas is still the dilemma of recession + austerity, while the domestic recovery slowed down compared to June, our medium-term strategy to build the four-quadrant framework of the probability will continue to show the U.S. recession fast, China's recovery slow combination of short-term twists and turns in the market A-share does not change the medium-term trend.
Combined with the midterm report forecast clues and fund second quarterly report configuration congestion, we maintain this long market growth style dominant judgment, continue to pay attention to China's advantageous assets; along the economic repair first production (manufacturing), after life (consumption) characteristics, China's advantageous assets will also be looking for from the advantages of manufacturing advantages to the advantages of the spread of consumption: (1) post-epidemic restoration and the PPI-CPI conduction benefited from the consumption (food and beverage, home appliances, wholesale and retail). Food and beverage / home appliances / wholesale and retail social services); (2) reported boom advantage still exists in the manufacturing industry (automotive including new energy vehicles / photovoltaic modules / coal); (3) restrictive policies to marginal relaxation (Internet media / innovative drugs / real estate leaders).
Anxin Securities: short-term is still the logic of liquidity, the market oscillation pivot upward
The market continues to play repeatedly between the fundamental recovery and the logic of liquidity. Since April 27 rally to mid-June, in the liquidity logic and risk appetite improvement support, small and medium-sized market ushered in a round of rising market; in late June to mid-July, the market trading logic is biased towards the fundamentals and recovery expectations, small and medium-sized market come to an end. since mid-July, the domestic epidemic repeated, the impact of the fall in overseas demand, the market's prejudgement of the fundamentals of the expectations of the reality of the close, superimposed on the domestic Liquidity tightening concerns gradually eliminated, the small and medium-sized market once again opened the excess market.
Under the combination of weak economic recovery and good liquidity, the logic of liquidity supports the continued outperformance of the small and medium-sized market represented by the CSI 2000, CSI 1000 and other indices. The follow-up need to pay attention to the macro-fundamental data to verify that the economic repair can be in line with market expectations, then the market will naturally transition from the logic of liquidity to the recovery of the expected trading logic.
In summary, the weak economic recovery trend is still relatively clear, we maintain the shock city thinking, but in the shock to achieve the pivot upward shift in the market judgment, and re-emphasize that at this stage: strong performance is the hard way. Overweight industry: automotive (auto parts), pharmaceuticals, digital intelligence (machine vision, industrial automation), energy storage, photovoltaic, food and beverage, military, agrochemicals, farming, infrastructure.
Huaan Securities: from the divergence to *** knowledge, pay attention to the two main lines
Recently, the market divergence gradually increased, one is the divergence of the annual growth target; the second is the direction of the real estate industry there is disagreement; the third is the disagreement on the continuity of new energy plate. With the convening of the Politburo meeting and the recent shock adjustment, these differences are expected to gradually narrow, slowly reach **** knowledge.
Therefore, it is recommended to grasp the certainty of strong, cost-effective, boom support two main lines: one is concerned about the medium-term fundamentals of certainty of the reversal of the real estate chain, the priority of the real estate downstream policy catalysts for automobiles, home appliances, home, real estate upstream of the cement, glass, iron and steel and other building materials, as well as real estate in the middle of the real estate development, service providers, etc. still need to wait for the boom to improve. Secondly, the main line of repair after the epidemic, focusing on demand with resilience, boom to maintain the stage of high, valuation is not high food and beverage.
BOC Securities: Adjustment window will close soon, small market value market may start
With the confirmation of the 22Q2 earnings bottom and the macro background of the continued downward movement of the PPI, the market of small market value companies represented by the CSI 1000 may start. This week, pay close attention to the Fed's interest rate hike landing, the logic of bearishness, risk appetite to boost commodity prices as well as the U.S. stock market rebound, the formation of a more positive overseas environment for the A shares; domestic, pay attention to the policy on the second half of the macroeconomic forward guidance. In particular, policies to stabilize expectations and domestic demand, thus resolving the tail risks of market concerns. We reiterate that the adjustment window of the A-share is about to close, style focus on high boom growth, small-capitalization style or have excess return performance.
Small-cap growth direction is expected to obtain excess returns. The main judgment logic is: 1) from the positioning point of view, the second half of the domestic short cycle will be from the late recession to the pre-expansion period, this stage of the performance of the high boom and earnings elasticity will become the focus of the market, the high-growth factor prevails. Reference to 20Q1 earnings bottom after the performance of the market style, growth style excess returns significantly, market capitalization style from large-cap to small-cap rotation characteristics. 2) from the performance reversal elasticity point of view, small-capitalization companies with small capitalization, high leverage, performance volatility has a symmetrical, in the 22 years of the mid-year report of the whole A index earnings decline stage, the CSI 1000 performance grouping of the performance of the listed companies appeared to be significantly more than the index of the decline. And reference 20 years Q2 performance reversal period, small-capitalization subgroup in the earnings upturn stage performance elasticity is significantly greater than the large-capitalization subgroup.
Yue Kai Securities: the short-term probability of a sharp decline in the index is not large, waiting for a new round of trending opportunities
Overall, despite the market disturbances, but the index on Friday, the end of the rapid pull-up, indicating that the current market trend of the overall atmosphere of the market is positive, the short-term probability of a sharp decline in the index is not large, suggesting that investors wait for the policy dividends and incremental capital combined to promote a new round of trendy opportunities, short-term priority attention to the more certainty of the plate, configuration attention to two main lines.
First, pay attention to the performance of the report over the expected plate investment opportunities. From the current midterm results forecast disclosure, basic chemical, electronics, power equipment and other sectors of performance certainty is relatively stronger. Subsequent profitability is expected to become an important driver of the market, it is recommended that investors start from the performance, pay attention to the midterm results exceeded expectations, and the valuation level is in a reasonable range of the plate. Second, some of the previous decline in large consumer stocks with low absorption opportunities. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic, summer tourism has a warming trend, where the network data show that the July national scenic spot ticket bookings ringgit growth of nearly two times. In addition to the second half of all kinds of initiatives to stimulate consumption will show results, all kinds of consumer goods listed companies performance is expected to take the lead in the rebound, you can pay attention to the recent adjustment of a larger range of quality consumer standards.
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