Nearing the end of the year, the predictions of various organizations on the 2016 housing prices are also launched one after another. Today we are sharing the data released by the research department of Tongze Consulting in conjunction with Tonghai Consulting. 2016, there will be three major urban areas in the country where housing prices are bullish, let's take a look at who they are.

December 17, the same policy consulting research department jointly with the same sea consulting released the "35 large and medium-sized cities commercial residential investment value research" report shows that in 35 large and medium-sized cities, including the first tier of the north, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other provincial capitals and key second-tier cities, the supply-demand ratio of less than 1.1 is located in a reasonable range of only 7 cities, which has the highest house prices in shenzhen, the supply-demand ratio of the smallest number, only 0.57 Cities with low supply/demand ratios are likely to see prices continue to rise in the future. Details can be seen in the table below.

And six cities, Qingdao, Changchun, Lanzhou, Shenyang, Guiyang and Dalian, have supply-demand ratios of more than 3, while Dalian has a supply-demand ratio of 7.18, making it the city with the most serious supply-demand imbalance in the sample.

What's wrong with the supply-demand ratio?

"A supply-demand ratio of less than 1.1 indicates that supply and demand are in a reasonable range, between 1.1 and 2 is a relative equilibrium range, and a supply-demand ratio of more than 2.0 is an imbalance between supply and demand."

For the four major first-tier cities of North, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the demand for residential units will keep rising steadily in the future due to the fast economic development, more job opportunities and continuous inflow of population, but due to the limitations of the city's size, the supply of land will be subject to certain restrictions, so the supply-demand ratio is low. And some second-tier cities, such as Fuzhou, Hefei, Shijiazhuang, such as regional cities, the population inflow is faster, its residential demand is also larger.

"Cities with low supply-to-demand ratios are likely to see prices continue to rise in the future." Zhang Hongwei said that Shanghai, for example, which has a supply-to-demand ratio of 0.91, had a resident population of 24,256,800 in 2014, with a large population base that is in a steady state of increase; since Shanghai is the economic center of the entire Yangtze River Delta region, with a clear industrial agglomeration effect, "we therefore predict that the potential demand for Shanghai over the next three years has reached 18.86 million square meters, which is in 35 cities at the forefront."

The said report also showed that among the key second-tier cities in the sample, Chengdu, Xiamen, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Xi'an, and Nanjing, ranked in the middle and upper echelons in terms of supply-demand ratio. "They have a better degree of economic development and are basically population-importing cities, which also have certain investment value." Zhang Hongwei believes.

According to the research, for some of the supply-demand ratio greater than 2.0 cities, and because of its economic slowdown population outflow accelerated, the future market capacity is small, such cities often also face greater inventory pressure, the risk has been accumulated more, developers and investors have to be more vigilant, the type of cities, mainly including Taiyuan, Hohhot, Guiyang, Lanzhou, Changchun, Shenyang, Dalian and so on.

Ranking of 35 large and medium-sized cities in terms of investment value of commercial residential properties

With the population in the north getting bigger and bigger, house prices are getting more and more expensive?

The following is the population inflow of first- and second-tier cities in the last five years:

Note: The data comes from the statistical bulletins of local governments or population census data. Unit: ten thousand people.

When combined with China's population density map, it is the following distribution:

Population inflow shows three patterns

First, it is highly concentrated in the three major metropolitan areas.

Population inflow of more than 1 million of the 13 cities, the three metropolitan areas accounted for eight, the Yangtze River Delta has Shanghai and Suzhou, the Pearl River Delta has Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Foshan, the Bohai Bay has Beijing and Tianjin.

The Yangtze River Delta Shanghai + Suzhou + Hangzhou + Nanjing + Ningbo + Wuxi + Changzhou = inflow of 8.63 million people.

Pearl River Delta Guangzhou + Shenzhen + Dongguan + Foshan = inflow of 7.96 million people.

Bohai Bay Beijing + Tianjin = inflow of 6.84 million people.

Put in the world, these three metropolitan areas will be in the top three in terms of the number of people they have.

Secondly, the non-metropolitan area population, the inflow is concentrated in the five major hub cities.

Inflows of more than 1 million people in the city, only Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, Xiamen, Wuhan five cities are not in the three major metropolitan areas.

Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, the three major cities are the star city of rapid GDP growth in recent years, distributed in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River pivotal position, both in the national planning of Chengdu-Chongqing metropolitan area, the core of the city cluster in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, but also thanks to the east wind of the coastal industrial transfer in recent years, appeared on the list is not at all surprising.

The surprises were Zhengzhou and Xiamen.

Third, other second- and third-tier cities, the rate of population inflow is slow or even stagnant.

The 35 major cities together saw an inflow of 37.78 million people, of which 28.32 million came from the first 13 major cities alone, while the 22 second-tier cities behind them saw an inflow of only 9.46 million people, equivalent to 25 percent of the total.

In fact, these 22 second-tier cities are basically the capitals, or economic centers, of provinces, so it is conceivable that population stagnation or loss will be inevitable in third- and fourth-tier towns below the provincial capitals.

So, is it true that the more populous a big city is, the more suitable it is for settling down?

Not exactly.

Among the 35 first- and second-tier cities, there are slow inflows from Shijiazhuang and Harbin, which have populations of 10 million, and fast inflows from medium-sized cities such as Dongguan, Foshan and Xiamen.

But if we look at it another way, from the perspective of a metropolitan area, it's true that the more populous the larger the "city", the better it is to live in.

Because in these three metropolitan areas, cities are closely linked to each other, superimposed on each other, specializing in the division of labor, the economy is more efficient, and there are more jobs accordingly.

(The above answer was posted on 2015-12-26, the current relevant home buying policy please prevail)

Sohu Focus, to provide you with real estate information, real estate property details, buy a house process, owners forum, home improvement and other comprehensive content information