The end of 2020, the central bank, the CBRC jointly issued "on the establishment of banking financial institutions real estate loan concentration management system notice" (hereinafter referred to as "notice"), after the Spring Festival, there have been a number of provinces and regions in accordance with the above "notice" to implement the jurisdiction of the real estate loan concentration management system.

According to the actual situation of the implementation of the localities, recently, Guangdong and Hainan have adjusted upward to varying degrees the upper limit of the proportion of small banks' real estate loans. Under the strict control of the ratio, mortgage rates are rising, the upward trend is a foregone conclusion, a new round of real estate regulation is spreading.

Small banks housing loan ratio cap up

The above "notice" clearly on the 7 Chinese large banks, 17 Chinese medium-sized banks, Chinese small banks and non-county agricultural institutions, county agricultural institutions, village banks,***5 classified by the classification of institutions subclassification to set up a real estate loan ratio cap, personal housing loan ratio cap .

The first class of large Chinese banks of real estate loan ratio cap and personal housing loan ratio cap of 40% and 32.5%; the second class of medium-sized Chinese banks of 27.5% and 20%; the third class of small Chinese banks and non-county agricultural cooperative institutions of 22.5% and 17.5%; the fourth class of county agricultural cooperative institutions of 17.5% and 12% respectively. 17.5% and 12.5%, respectively; and the fifth tranche of village banks were 12.5% and 7.5%, respectively.

Additionally, according to Article 4 of the Circular, branches of the People's Bank above the central sub-branches of sub-provincial cities, together with the local CBIRC dispatching agencies, may, under the premise of full justification, combine the level of economic and financial development of the location, the specific situation of the legal banking financial institutions in the interior of the jurisdiction, and the characteristics of the systemic financial risks, to take the third, fourth and fifth tranches of the real estate loans of the Circular as the benchmark. Taking the third, fourth and fifth tranches of the real estate loan concentration management requirements of this Circular as the benchmark, within the range of 2.5 percentage points of increase or decrease, it shall reasonably determine the real estate loan concentration management requirements applicable to the corresponding tranches of the local legal person banking financial institutions within the jurisdiction.

In Guangdong, recently, the central bank Guangzhou branch, the Guangdong Banking and Insurance Bureau jointly issued a notice on the management of real estate loan concentration of local legal person banking financial institutions in the jurisdiction of Guangdong (excluding Shenzhen) related work, the third, fourth and fifth grade of the local legal person banking financial institutions in the jurisdiction of the real estate loan concentration in Guangdong has put forward specific requirements.

In particular, the maximum proportion of real estate loans and the maximum proportion of personal housing loans for the third-tier small Chinese banks and non-county agricultural and cooperative institutions are 24.5% and 19.5%, respectively; for the fourth-tier county agricultural and cooperative institutions are 20% and 15%, respectively; and for the fifth-tier village and township banks are 12.5% and 7.5%, respectively.

That is to say, compared with the Notice, Guangdong has raised the upper limit of real estate loans and the upper limit of personal housing loans for the third-tier banks under its jurisdiction by 2 percentage points; and raised the upper limit of real estate loans and the upper limit of personal housing loans for the fourth-tier banks by 2.5 percentage points.

And the above policies mainly radiate to the five city merchant banks under the jurisdiction of Guangdong, namely Huaxing Bank, Bank of Guangzhou, Dongguan Bank, Zhuhai China Resources Bank and Nan Yue Bank; one private bank, Meizhou Hakshang Bank; and more than 80 agricultural merchant banks including Guangzhou Agricultural and Commercial Bank, Foshan Agricultural and Commercial Bank, Shunde Agricultural and Commercial Bank, Nanhai Agricultural and Commercial Bank, and so on.

In addition to Guangdong, it was reported on February 20, the People's Bank of China Haikou central sub-branch held a press briefing revealed that the People's Bank of China Haikou central sub-branch has been jointly with the Hainan Bureau of Banking and Insurance Supervision to develop and introduce a notice, according to the relevant person in charge, in the context of the policy allowed to determine the upward adjustment of the third tranche of the Chinese-funded small banks and non-county agricultural and cooperative institutions of real estate loans accounted for a maximum of 2.5 percentage points to 25%, which is more in line with the reality of Hainan, helping the relevant institutions to more reasonably optimize the credit structure.

Future mortgage interest rate levels will continue to rise

In any case, relative to 2020, this year's property market regulation will only be more stringent.

After the issuance of the above Notice, since late January 2021, there have been frequent rumors of mortgage tightening in various parts of the mortgage market, with many banks experiencing tight quota or even suspension of lending in January, when the quota was more relaxed in previous years, and mortgage interest rates have also risen, demonstrating the power of the new regulations on the centralized management of mortgages.

Particularly in the Guangzhou area is most affected by the new policy, just a few days to experience tight quota, lending cycle and the first and second suite interest rates across the board rising tide, the average level of the first mortgage interest rate rose 11BP, the average level of the second mortgage interest rate rose 4BP, of which the four major banks of the first mortgage interest rate level were all adjusted to 5.2%, the second mortgage rate of 5.4%, the rise in the range of 15-30BP. ranging from 15 to 30BP, some joint-stock banks also increased, and there are also several joint-stock banks that are short of quota although their prices remain unchanged for the time being. The market feedback, the bank's lending time is conservatively estimated to be basically from two months, or even 4 to 6 months is not certain.

Back in January 2020, the national average interest rate for the first two-suite loans stepped into a downward path, a process that lasted until the end of 2020, and since January this year, the national average interest rate for the first two-suite loans has risen again and may become a trend.

According to the monitoring data of Rong360 Big Data Research Institute on mortgage rates of 674 bank branches in 41 key cities nationwide, the national average interest rate for first-suite loans was 5.26% in February 2021, up 4 BP from a year earlier; and the average interest rate for second-suite loans was 5.56%, up 3 BP from a year earlier.

Among the 41 cities, 18 cities The average level of mortgage interest rates rose year-on-year, of which 6 cities had an increase of more than 10BP, and Dongguan area had the biggest increase, with the interest rate for first-suite loans rising 25BP year-on-year, and the interest rate for second-suite loans rising 27BP year-on-year.