1: The reason why the early epidemic in India was not obvious was not because India did a good job in prevention and control, let alone that Ganges water and cow urine played a key role. This is due to the acute shortage of testing reagents in India. In the past, India could only conduct dozens of tests every day, and they were only for foreigners who came to India with symptoms. Indian nationals were not eligible to enjoy this preferential treatment. As long as Indians do not get tested throughout their lives, the epidemic in India will always be calm. However, since India announced the "lockdown", the number of confirmed cases in India has surged at a rate of 200 cases per day. What’s even more terrible is that people infected with the virus have been found in every state and region across India. It can be said that the epidemic in India has become a spark, and it will only start a prairie fire sooner or later.
Two: India is a large country with a population of 1.3 billion. However, there is a huge gap between rich and poor, with poor people accounting for 80% of India's total population. These poor people live in a harsh environment with garbage everywhere and flies flying everywhere. They drank polluted Ganges water, ate unhygienic "hand-meal", defecated everywhere, and wiped their butts with their hands. Living in such an environment, it is difficult not to be infected by the virus. Indians face death calmly and never take COVID-19 seriously. Even if they have symptoms of fever and cough, they do not want to go to the hospital and wait for a day to get tested. Instead, they rely on drinking cow urine to get rid of the disease. Because in the minds of Indians, cows are sacred and spiritual animals, and Indians believe that its urine can cure all diseases. Even death is a kind of reincarnation and a kind of liberation. Take it to the Ganges River and burn it, and the soul can be reincarnated again.
Three: India’s city closure measures are completely copied from China’s and are stricter than China’s. The police patrol the streets with sticks. When they encounter people wandering around, they will directly fight against those who refuse to listen to dissuasion. But one of Modi's "loopholes" laid the foundation for the outbreak of the epidemic in India. Because Modi’s closure of the city is not just a matter of closure, but deliberately leaves four hours for workers to escape. As a result, these migrant workers fled en masse four hours before the city was closed, flooding all over the country like a bursting flood, and at the same time bringing the virus to rural areas with poorer medical conditions. Modi also has unspeakable reasons for doing this. If these migrant workers are not released from the city, they will starve to death on the streets because they have lost their jobs.
American infectious disease prevention and control experts pointed out that the epidemic in India will explode in May, with at least 200 million people infected. Calculated based on a 1% minimum mortality rate, 1 million to 2 million people in India will die from this epidemic. The words of American experts are by no means sensational, because India's medical system is too fragile. There are only 1.2 hospitals in the country and less than 0.7 beds per 100 people. It is simply unable to withstand the raging epidemic. India really cannot afford to be hurt. Once the epidemic strikes, it will be like a flood that bursts and engulfs the entire India.
As a country with a population of more than 1.3 billion, India has 2,301 confirmed cases and 59 deaths as of today. If compared with European and American countries that have been "fallen" by the new coronavirus epidemic, India now can definitely Call it a miracle, because India is much behind European and American countries in terms of national income and medical system!
However, the current "Indian Miracle" does not ensure that India will be safe and sound in the face of the new crown epidemic or that the world will be at peace. The main reason is that behind the "Indian Miracle" there is already "survival from all kinds of troubles and dangers" The crises that are emerging one after another are constantly accumulating and fermenting.
First of all, it is the consequences of the huge gap between rich and poor in India.
It is undeniable that India’s economic history has changed. Rapid development has not only created a middle class with strong consumption power, but also rapidly improved and enhanced India's comprehensive national strength. It is for this reason that it has become the main reason for the unprecedented expansion of India's great power and its militaristic expansion of armaments. The shortcomings of solidified classes and the redistribution of social wealth in India's history have not been broken. Therefore, most of India's economic dividends are shared by 40% of the population. And through the current epidemic in India, it is not difficult to see that these people are currently quarantined in India. The "feast and specialness", and those of lower classes and low incomes, they have no right to share! ,
Especially those at the bottom of society and low-income people in India, they have been marginalized by society. Either they live in slums with extremely poor sanitation and living conditions in big cities, or they become daily wage earners who go to the city to work. As a result, when the country's economic life is normal, they can have enough food and clothing by working or even begging. But as long as the country's economic life is shut down, they will immediately fall into the miserable situation of being unable to pay rent and have no money to buy daily necessities. We can see the signs of this less than a week after India's "lockdown order" was issued.
The Indian government closed the city on March 24. By March 30, the millions of "daily wage earners" in India who had come to work in cities could no longer survive in the cities. Due to the suspension of public transportation and the unaffordability of private transportation, millions of migrant workers in cities dragged their families and luggage back to their hometowns on foot, and accidental deaths occurred among them. Tragedy, and some "lucky ones" who had been able to take transportation were beaten by the police for violating the quarantine order.
This social phenomenon in India was called by the British "Guardian", "This is the largest population migration in India since the partition of India and Pakistan."
However, these two large-scale population movements are qualitatively different, because this large-scale population movement is full of risks of the spread of the new coronavirus epidemic. Once some of these returnees carry the new coronavirus and return to the hinterland with poor economic development and weak medical foundation, , causing the spread of the new coronavirus epidemic. By then, even if the Indian government wants to control the outbreak, it will be difficult to do so!
However, it is strange and confusing that the Indian government did not take this into consideration when implementing the "lockdown order". Therefore, it was criticized and criticized by insightful people in India and the opposition Congress Party. Questioning, and believing that the government has not made any plans for the return of migrant workers. The Prime Minister of India also expressed his deep apology to the low-income class for the panic buying of food and medicine caused by the implementation of the ban, but he still defended himself by saying that the "closure order" and "quarantine order" were the "win to fight against the epidemic". The prerequisite for victory in the epidemic war.
Not only is the return of workers now increasing the risk and crisis of the COVID-19 outbreak in India's interior areas, but what is most devastating to Indians is that the COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed in slums. In the Tarawi slum in Mumbai, where more than 1.5 million people live, a confirmed case appeared on the 1st. However, due to the serious condition, the infected person died that night due to worsening of the condition, and the person had no history of traveling abroad.
However, what is worrying about the epidemic in India is that before March 21, when India's "lockdown" order was not implemented, at least three Indians infected with the new coronavirus were not under the control of the Indian epidemic prevention department. Therefore, in the book "Do We Care: India's Health System", former Indian Health Minister Rao questioned that India had entered the community transmission stage at that time. India’s restrictions on testing also underestimate India’s actual infection rate. Therefore, it is no longer an alarmist prediction that the new coronavirus epidemic is about to break out on a large scale in India. Once the epidemic breaks out on a large scale in India, only with the current "epidemic prevention" materials in India, when the epidemic is severe, not only India's medical institutions will be unable to In response, be aware that India will become the next epicenter of the epidemic due to the rapid spread of the epidemic!
Thank you "Little Secretary" for the invitation!
India is likely to be the next epicenter of the epidemic after the United States.
Xinhua News Agency reported in New Delhi on April 2 that the latest data released by the Indian Ministry of Health on the 2nd showed that as of 20:00 that day, the cumulative number of confirmed cases rose to 2,069, with 156 cured cases and 53 deaths.
On April 2, the ninth day of the nationwide lockdown in India, there were an average of 120 new cases per day in the first five days, an average of 200 new cases per day in the next four days, and 2,000 new cases in nine days.
New data shows that the spread of the epidemic in India is not obvious. In fact, the epidemic spread trend in India is very unoptimistic.
According to Xinhua News Agency citing Indian media on April 2, the Tarawi slum in Mumbai, India, reported its first confirmed case of new coronary pneumonia on April 1. The patient’s condition worsened that night and died during the transfer process. . Data show that this slum is the largest in India, with more than 1.5 million people living in an environment with poor sanitary conditions.
This is a very dangerous and terrible sign. He died on the same day he was diagnosed. This is very similar to the "super spreader" in Daegu, South Korea. The difference is that the infected person in Daegu was not dead after being diagnosed early, while the person in Mumbai died immediately after being diagnosed. If the Indian government conducts large-scale testing and truthfully reports the number of infections, I believe the number of confirmed cases will rise rapidly.
Based on the current doubling data in four days, India will have 10,000 confirmed cases in the next two weeks. why?
The confirmed cases in India were mainly concentrated in a religious event held on March 13. At that time, about 3,500 people from all over India or abroad gathered in a community in southern South Delhi. This area has now become the center of India's new crown epidemic. The spread of pneumonia is a "hotspot area". Among the latest confirmed cases, the patients either directly participated in the event or had contact with those who participated in the event. The scary thing is that about 9,000 people related to the party are missing, of which about 2,000 were direct attendees and the rest were related parties.
Therefore, it is very likely that India will become the "center" of the epidemic after the United States.