10, it may not be easy to get money now.
According to the statistics of the reporters of Cailian, this week * * * has 5 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 500 billion yuan of medium-term loan facility (MLF) due, totaling 1.0 1 trillion yuan.
A fund trader of a city commercial bank in South China told Cailian that the funds were tight in early trading on Monday, and the institution was cautious about the subsequent liquidity, so it lent less. After 1 1, the funds of the X-REPO (pledged repo anonymous click service) system have been loosened, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to the open market operation of the central bank in the short term.
Market participants also pointed out that after the "Eleventh" holiday, the central bank returned to the reverse repurchase operation mode of 654.38 billion yuan, slightly lower than market expectations. In the fourth quarter, the liquidity of 10 market is under certain pressure, considering the acceleration of the issuance of government bonds and local bonds, the big month of tax payment and the expiration of a large number of open market operations. It is expected that the overall funding will not be relaxed.
However, during the "Eleventh" period, the demand for residents to withdraw cash increased, which caused some disturbance to the short-term liquidity of the banking system. After the holiday, residents' funds will return, or the cash pressure in the banking system will be eased. In addition, according to the data of previous years, it is expected that the bank deposits at 5438+00 will decrease in June, which will affect the statutory deposit reserve. At the same time, considering the seasonal law of fiscal expenditure, it is estimated that the fiscal deposits will increase by 600 billion yuan in June 5438+ 10.
Market participants expect that the forward-looking and effectiveness of the current central bank's monetary policy has improved, and the policy tools are sufficient. It is expected that there will be no obvious fluctuation in market liquidity.
Special debt materials have put some pressure on the funds.
Recently, it was reported that the issuance of local special bonds will end at the end of June 165438+, and the quota of 65438 will not be reserved in February. Market participants predict that if the issuance ratio in June 5438+February is restored to the average level of 2% in previous years, the net financing scale of local bonds in June 5438+ 10 and June 5438+065438+ 10 will greatly increase from 0.38 trillion to15 trillion, which will accelerate the local special bonds.
Shen Xinfeng, chief macro analyst of Northeast Securities, said that in June 5438+0-September, the net financing of government bonds and the new special bonds of local governments completed 48% and 68% of the annual quota respectively, and the issuance pressure in the fourth quarter was not small. Judging from the issuance plan of national debt and other factors, it is estimated that the net financing of national debt will reach 396.8 billion yuan in the month of 10, and 406 10 billion yuan of local government bonds will be added. After deducting 37.8 billion yuan of local government bonds due after refinancing, there will be 368.3 billion yuan of net financing of national debt returning to the market.
Li, chief fixed income analyst of Cinda Securities, said that the net supply scale of 5438+00 treasury bonds may not be low in June, but considering that the central bank will still hedge the disturbance of treasury bond issuance and tax payment, it is expected that the fund interest rate of 5438+00 will still fluctuate around the policy interest rate in June, but under the background of low over-reserve rate and rising non-bank fund gap, the fund fluctuation will still be amplified.