In this wave of "counterattack", sodium ion battery panels have contributed.
On July 28, the market fell for two consecutive days, the theme concept was depressed, and the sodium battery plate rose against the trend. Sanyang shares rose daily, Huayang shares rose by more than 8%, Bai Rong Science and Technology and Contemporary Anpu Technology rose by more than 6%, and Xinwangda and Peng Hui Energy rose sharply. Then the 29th continued to take the audience, and the whole plate rose by 6%. Year-to-date, the wind-blown sodium battery index has increased by more than 50%.
Tracing back to the source, this whirlwind of sodium batteries began in Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.
On the afternoon of July 29th 15:30, Chairman Zeng Yuqun announced the first generation of sodium ion battery products of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. to the marketing officer.
In fact, as early as May this year, Zeng Yuqun had already revealed the sodium battery of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. to the outside world. In the following two months, there were endless discussions about sodium batteries in the market. The application scope and market potential of sodium battery released by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. far exceed market expectations.
But then again, this "unexpected" conference is also expected:
For a company like Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., only by having super technical innovation ability, accurately grasping the market demand and realizing the key link of industrial safety can we face overseas giants directly in international competition and prop up the current market value.
1
Discussion on sodium battery in the market
Previously, the market's expectations for sodium ion batteries were based on several major premises.
First of all, at the cost end, the cost of sodium battery is lower than that of lithium battery. When the industrial chain is mature, the cost of sodium battery is lower than that of lithium battery, regardless of the positive and negative electrodes or electrolyte, while the diaphragm technology, production line and production process are similar to those of lithium battery, so the development process cost is lower. According to FARADION, a British sodium ion battery company, the cost of sodium ion batteries after mass production is 30% lower than that of lithium ion batteries.
Compared with lithium, sodium is more abundant in the earth's crust and more evenly distributed. Therefore, in addition to being more accessible, it also avoids external dependence on the lithium battery supply chain and the price system is more stable.
Secondly, on the demand side, the theoretical performance of sodium ion battery can meet specific requirements. In terms of energy density, sodium battery theoretically reaches 100~ 150Wh/kg. Comparing the two main battery types, although it is still lower than 120~ 180Wh/kg of lithium battery, it is much higher than 30~50Wh/kg of lead-acid battery.
In terms of safety, the resistance of sodium ion battery is higher than that of lithium ion battery, so the safety performance of sodium ion battery is relatively higher when short circuit occurs. The electrolyte of sodium ion battery has been proved to be more stable than that of lithium ion battery.
In addition, sodium battery can discharge to 0V, which is more stable than lithium battery in storage and transportation. The economic value of sodium battery recycling is higher than that of lithium battery, which is more sustainable and can further save the use cost.
Based on the above conditions, the market expects that sodium batteries will have broad prospects in application scenarios such as power grid energy storage, replacement of lead-acid batteries for low-speed electric vehicles, and power supply for large-scale transportation equipment. Which requires a slightly lower energy density and is more sensitive to battery stability and cost.
2
Sodium battery of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. exceeded expectations.
Although most of the contents of the first generation sodium battery released by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. basically meet the market forecast, there are also many parts that exceed expectations.
As for cathode materials, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has established a large-scale integrated computing platform for materials in Qualcomm, which can simulate and design materials at the atomic level. Therefore, in the research and development of the first generation of sodium batteries, the company rearranged the bulk structural charges of Prussian white and layered oxides, and redesigned the surface of the materials, which solved the worldwide problem of rapid attenuation of materials in the cycle process and made innovative materials have the conditions for industrialization.
As for the negative electrode, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has developed a hard carbon material with excellent cycle performance, and its overall index is equivalent to that of the mainstream negative electrode material graphite.
The company also developed a corresponding unique electrolyte system.
In terms of manufacturing technology, the technology of the first generation sodium battery of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. can be compatible with the current manufacturing technology and equipment of lithium batteries.
Therefore, in terms of specific performance parameters, the energy density of the first generation sodium battery is 160Wh/kg, which is equivalent to that of lithium iron phosphate battery. Charging at room temperature, the power reaches 80% in 15 minutes, with fast charging ability; In terms of system integration efficiency, it can reach more than 80%. Generally speaking, the energy density is slightly lower than the current lithium iron phosphate battery, but it has obvious advantages in low temperature performance, fast charging and high power scenarios.
Based on the above characteristics, contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has really made a sodium battery pack for new energy vehicles, which was previously considered to be difficult to apply in the scene of new energy vehicles.
In the aspect of battery integration, the company developed the AB battery solution, that is, lithium battery and sodium battery are used in a group of batteries at the same time, arranged and mixed according to a certain proportion, and then balanced control is carried out through an algorithm to realize the "learning from each other's strengths" of the two batteries.
Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has started the industrial layout of sodium batteries, and plans to form a basic industrial chain in 2023.
In addition, this conference revealed an important message: the energy density of the next generation of sodium batteries will exceed 200Wh/kg.
three
Grasp the turning point and pain point of development
Sodium batteries are not really new.
The research on this technical route began in the19th century and rose in the 1970s, almost at the same time as lithium batteries. However, the development of sodium battery is much slower because of the gap between energy density and lithium battery.
Nowadays, the market demand for batteries has changed, and sodium has been "invited out of the mountain" again.
For the development of China, energy is an unavoidable topic. After the industrial revolution, the global industrial system was built on fossil energy. China, which was backward and beaten in modern times, was in urgent need of industrialization, so it actively integrated into the global industrial system and completed the economic take-off after the reform and opening up.
However, when time came to 2 1 century, the problem of "getting stuck in the neck" became the sword of Damocles; Environmental changes caused by excessive emissions also challenge the vision of sustainable development, and the goal of "carbon neutrality" will bring profound changes to the productivity of human society and have a profound impact on all walks of life.
At the same time, the demand for economic growth is more and more urgent. Energy is the material basis for the development of human society. The peak of people's efficiency in using fossil energy means that the technological dividend period brought by the fossil energy revolution is coming to an end, and the marginal benefits of development are gradually weakening without the support of more advanced underlying technologies. What follows is the decrease of incremental market space, in other words, involution.
Therefore, getting rid of dependence on fossil energy has become an important means to achieve the goal of "double carbon", and it is also an important means to ensure energy security, industrial system independence, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and promote productivity development.
A series of trends we see today, the iterative upgrading of consumer electronics products, the electrification and electronicization of automobiles, and the super computing power of big data and cloud computing centers and even quantum computers are all vivid projections of this means in life. However, to achieve this goal, the key link has not been solved-how to store energy.
Energy conversion and storage is the core of new energy development. Under the existing technical conditions, the cost of new energy is still very high. Although the cost of photovoltaic, hydropower and wind power is decreasing and the power generation is increasing in the production process, it is still unable to provide stable power supply for the demand side. In the period of underestimation, how can electricity be stored and transported to the demand side? At present, the most feasible energy storage path is hydrogen energy and battery. Because there are great technical problems in the storage and transportation of hydrogen energy, more and more people pay attention to the battery scheme at this stage.
The sodium battery announced by contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. has low cost and great advantages in storage and transportation, which is expected to not only open up the key links of the future new energy system, but also meet the needs of further downstream application scenarios. Broad market space is more conducive to the realization of technology research and development, forming scale effect and further reducing the marginal cost of technology.
This also explains the wave of capital market on the eve of the development of sodium battery in contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.
four
The Innovation Gene of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.
In view of the future planning, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. made a clear explanation at the press conference.
The company will work hard in three strategic directions:
Replacing fixed fossil energy with renewable energy for power generation and energy storage; Power battery helps the development of electric vehicles; Take the integration of electrification and intelligence as innovation, and accelerate the process of new energy substitution in various fields.
Combined with the release of sodium batteries and the active layout in recent years, energy storage is imminent as the next important strategic layout of contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. The business of power battery system will continue to grow and develop with the technological progress.
By 2020, the proportion of energy storage system business is only 3.86%. Power battery system is still the biggest income source of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., accounting for 78.35%; The proportion of battery materials business reached 6.8 1%. However, if the time scale of backtracking is lengthened, the revenue of energy storage business will increase rapidly, and the growth rate from 20 18 to 2020 will reach 10.52 times, 2.22 times and 2. 18 times respectively.
Looking forward to the future, the energy storage industry is about to enter the fast lane of development, and the corresponding business segments have huge imagination. From the point of view of brokers, during 20021~ 2025, the income of limited energy storage business of contemporary Ampere Technology will increase from about 6 billion yuan to 40 billion yuan;
In the same period, the revenue of battery materials business is expected to increase from 5 billion yuan to 9 billion yuan;
Facing the end of the industrial chain, considering the increase in installed capacity of power batteries brought by the sales growth of new energy vehicles, as well as the cost control ability brought by the company's technological innovation and upstream raw material layout, the power battery system business, which currently accounts for the largest proportion, is expected to increase from 80 billion yuan to 350 billion yuan in the same period.
On this basis, it is estimated by EV/EBITDA method that the share price of contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. will reach the range of 500~700 yuan, which is higher than the results obtained by discounted cash flow method and PE relative valuation method. In fact, for the current market value level of contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., the latter two methods will undoubtedly lead to the underestimation of the price and the illusion of "elephant dancing".
For the "growth stock" of contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd., whose impairment reserve is too conservative and still in the early stage of development, innovation is the company's "gene" and an important factor to confirm its future business growth. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has more than 5,500 R&D employees. According to previous statistics, it accounts for more than 65,438+09% of the total number of employees, far higher than the peers in the industry. Of these 5,500 people, 100 has a doctorate, and 1300 has a master's degree.
In terms of R&D investment, 202 1Q 1, the company's R&D expenditure1.81billion yuan, an increase of 84.88% year-on-year, and its revenue accounted for more than 6%, making it the first echelon in the industry. According to the statistical data in 2020, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has mastered 2969 domestic patents, 348 overseas patents and formally applied for 3454 patents.
Back to the release of sodium batteries.
You know, the chemical system of the battery is very complicated, which needs to involve dozens of components and nano-scale materials, and carry out energy conversion in a limited space, and also ensure safety, cycle life and rate performance. The subtlety of this science lies in a comprehensive understanding of battery materials. On the other hand, the creativity of AB battery integration scheme requires that its electronic control system can adjust different chemical systems accurately and dynamically.
These all need strong innovation ability as support.
five
End of movement
In just a few years, the industrial cluster effect of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. has attracted more than 50 upstream and downstream enterprises such as SAIC, Meg and Xiamen Tungsten to settle in Ningde, Fujian, making this once 18 concentrated contiguous poverty-stricken area the world's largest power battery production base and the global 1/4 electric vehicle origin.
Many players in the battery industry chain with a market value of 100 billion won the favor of capital on this track, and it is the "Maxima" of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. that drives the industry to run.
Technological innovation has also made Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. stand out from its competitors and supported its trillion-dollar market value.
From the earliest square, soft bag and cylindrical batteries, to the CTP highly integrated power battery development platform and NCM81Kloc-0/battery in 20 19, to the recent V2G distributed energy storage network and today's sodium ion batteries, Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd. has established products covering R&D, engineering design, testing and verification, process manufacturing and other fields.
It is this trait that supports contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. to face the competition from overseas giants. As of July 29th, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. ranked first among global power battery suppliers with a market share of 29.9%, followed by LG New Energy (24.5%) and Panasonic (15%).
But in addition to the company's own development, it is more important to know that innovation is one of the most important driving forces for our time.
The great man once said, "Technology is the primary productive force."
Generally speaking, every rise of science and technology, energy revolution and new technology will create infinite incremental space and promote the development of human history; For a society and an individual, technology is also a key variable to change lifestyle and living conditions.
Therefore, if you master innovation, you will master the future.