A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Support Capability of Charging and Replacing Power Infrastructure (Draft for Comment)" (hereinafter referred to as the draft for comment). After the release of the document, the charging pile plate rose sharply that day, which shows the sensitivity of the market to this field.
On the same day when the document was released, an electric vehicle charging facility technology innovation conference was also held in Qingdao, and hundreds of front-line engineers and technicians from the industry started a pure technical discussion.
The market scale exceeds one trillion.
In April this year, new energy vehicles stood out at the Shanghai International Auto Show. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June and April this year were 750,000 and 732,000 respectively, up 2.6 times and 2.5 times respectively. As of March this year, the number of new energy vehicles in China was 55 1 10,000, accounting for 1.92% of the total number of vehicles. Among them, there are 4.49 million pure electric vehicles, accounting for 8 1.53% of the total number of new energy vehicles.
According to the plan, the sales proportion of new energy vehicles will reach 20% in 2025, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles, and vehicles in the public sector will be fully electrified.
The ensuing charging market space is also huge. In terms of quantity, the data shows that in the statistics of public charging piles in 20 19 years, there were 516,000 in China, 25.5,000 in the European Union, 7.2,000 in the United States and 3.2,000 in Japan, with a global compound annual growth rate of 32%, and China's charging industry ranked first in the world.
According to the report "Global EV Outlook 20 19" published by IEA and the research by Ren Zeping of Evergrande Research Institute, by 2030, the estimated number of private charging piles in the world will reach1.28-2.45 billion respectively, with a total charging power of1.000-1.800 GW. The number of public charging piles is expected to reach1000-20 million, with total charging power 1 13-2 15GW and total charging capacity of 70- 124TWh.
According to the global average level, in 2030, the average price of public * * * piles will be 30,000/set, the average price of private charging piles will be 40,000/set, the electricity fee will be 0.5 yuan/kwh, and the service fee will be 0.7 yuan/kwh. Therefore, in 2030, the scale of global charging piles will be 0.8 1- 1.58 trillion yuan, and the charging cost will be 0.66- 1.
The domestic market is the largest automobile market in the world, and due to different national conditions, the ratio of public piles to private piles is much higher than that in Europe and America, which is expected to account for 40% of the global charging pile market share, so the domestic charging pile equipment and service market will reach 600 billion-1.08 trillion. At present, there are nearly 130 charging equipment manufacturers in China.
Faced with such a market space, China's industries have also made development plans. According to the technical roadmap of energy-saving and new energy vehicle 2.0, the development of charging infrastructure is carried out in stages. In 2025, more than130,000 terminals (including self-owned piles and public piles) will be built, and about 800,000 terminals (including special fields) will be built. Ensure that the annual power supply demand is 654.38+00 billion kW.h, and support the charging of more than 20 million vehicles. Newly-built slow charging pile 1: 1 in urban community, with wireless slow charging reaching 6- 10kW, and carry out pilot projects of high-power fast charging cities; Build 3,000 quick-change stations and formulate technical standards for power exchange.
By 2035, China will have more than 65.438+0.5 billion slow charging ports, 654.38+0: 654.38+0 slow charging port parking spaces and 654.38+0.46 million public fast charging ports. Ensure that the annual power supply demand is 500 billion kW.h, and support more than 65.438+0.5 billion vehicles to charge and replace electricity.
At the same time, at that time, it will take 5 minutes to drive more than 300Km with high power and fast charge, and the automatic quick change time will reach 1.5 minutes, which will promote the consumption of new energy to exceed 1000 billion kWh every year.
At the first China Electric Vehicle Charging Facility Technology Innovation Conference held on May 20th, Shao Zhehai, the former chief expert of Putian New Energy Co., Ltd., pointed out that there will be three major trends in the future development of charging facility technology. "First of all, it will adapt to the efficient service application requirements of charging scenarios. With the full electrification of private cars, official cars, buses, commuter cars, taxis, network cars, light freight cars and some special vehicles, high-power charging, wireless charging and DC low-power charging are realized. The second is to improve the efficiency of charging service, ensure charging safety and realize automatic charging experience. Intelligent technology and artificial intelligence will be widely used in charging facilities network. The third is the trend of efficient interaction and deep integration between charging infrastructure and electric energy, especially renewable energy. "
Controversy between charging and replacing circuit lines
Around the power supply of electric vehicles, there are two development modes in the industry, one is charging, and the other is enjoying power exchange through * * *.
In the charging direction, at present, there are mainly Taier, Infineon, HKUST Intelligent, Otsu and other power exchange directions, such as Zhongheng Electric, Xuji Electric and Beiqi Blue Valley. The dispute over the route of power supply scheme has become the focus.
Lan Zhibo, vice president of technology of Aodong New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. said, "Charging has a very basic related problem-time, charging time is in the travel link, and it is not a very matching thing at present, and it takes a long time. Switching power is not only "fast", but also makes up for the lack of charging, creating a full-scenario energy supply service solution for users. "
Lan Zhibo pointed out that it takes a lot of time to use high-load vehicles, which is often called operating vehicles, while private cars don't need that much time. However, when private cars need to be recharged, users still have a high demand for time and efficient energy replenishment. "How to match efficient charging and energy supply methods for users is a problem that the electric vehicle industry needs to seriously consider. Especially for high-load vehicles (operating vehicles), it is necessary to establish an efficient charging and replacing solution. "
For * * * power exchange, Lan Zhibo said, "For users, * * * power exchange improves the convenience of car owners and is beneficial to users. For operators, * * * power exchange improves the commercialization of power exchange operation and is conducive to sustainable operation. In addition, the transaction of power and money reduces the total cost of social resources and is beneficial to society. "
Yu Dexiang, chairman of Telecom, which is mainly engaged in charging network business, said that the cost of replacing electricity is higher than that of charging, and it is difficult to form a commercial closed loop. "The cost is very high. Users who pass it on to users will not pay the bill, but they will not make a profit if they don't pass it on. Changing electricity also requires laying a large network, and the investment scale is much larger than charging. "
Yu Dexiang pointed out that in hot cities of electric vehicles, such as Beijing, a good charging station can recover its cost in two years, but for the convenience of customers, it will take at least 4-5 years to build the city's charging network. "To build a good power exchange station, the best scenario takes 3-4 years to recover the cost, while it takes at least 6-8 years or even longer to build a city's power exchange network to serve those dedicated trams." In addition, he believes that the difficulty of battery standardization and coordination with the power grid is the pain point of the power exchange track.
Aside from commercial disputes, from the policy point of view, charging and changing electricity are both supported. In 20021Government Work Report, new facilities such as charging piles and power exchange stations were put forward. In the opinion draft released on May 20, the fiscal and tax support policies for optimizing the construction of charging and replacing facilities were put forward, and subsidies and tax incentives for affordable charging and replacing facilities such as highways, towns and residential quarters were strengthened. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the ability of financial services, and include qualified investment in charging and replacing facilities and supporting power grid construction and transformation into the scope of support of new infrastructure special bonds and China Clean Development Mechanism Fund. Financial institutions such as China Development Bank provide long-term low-cost funds for the construction of charging and replacing facilities through various channels. Encourage insurance institutions to develop commercial insurance products suitable for charging and replacing facilities.
From the technical trend of the two, on the one hand, it is the trend of high power and fast charging. With the improvement of the high-rate performance of the battery, Chaoji's charging goal is that the passenger car can achieve a driving range of more than 300Km+ after charging for 5 minutes. On the other hand, * * * enjoys the trend of changing electricity, and the quick change technology will become mature. It is expected to be the first to be widely used in the fields of leasing/network car leasing and heavy-duty vehicles. ToC is driven by ToB, forming an original power exchange platform and enjoying the battery leasing format.
Zhou Libo, director of the Comprehensive Planning Division of the Standardization Management Center of China Electric Power Enterprise Federation, analyzed that, from the comparison of the service capabilities of the power exchange station and the fast charging station, "Take the comparison of the 60kw DC charging and replacing station with the same unit area as an example, the battery exchange mode is greater than 24-30 times/day/standard parking space, and the fast charging mode is greater than 6-8 times/day/standard parking space. From the economic comparison of investment and construction, on the basis of the same service capacity, the cost of changing electricity to build a station is about1.80-20 thousand yuan, and the cost of fast charging a station is about 400 thousand-500 thousand yuan. "
Zhou Libo said that the industrialization promotion of battery replacement technology (battery replacement) for electric vehicles mainly lies in the business model. In the future, battery replacement technology will still be mainly applied to specific vehicles running in the local area, such as taxis, taxis and buses. Considering the cascade utilization of batteries and the development of energy storage and energy internet, there is still room for exploration.
Regarding the charging mode, she pointed out that high-power charging and wireless charging are the two major development directions of electric vehicle charging technology at present. Ultra-pole charging technology is the direction of high power charging. At the same time, with the continuous development of automobile intelligence and networking, the demand for wireless charging will increase day by day.
The war of charging piles is not the story of enjoying bicycles.
"For the charging network, including electricity, energy, big data and other related majors. It is a new technology, interdisciplinary, cross-industry, cross-enterprise and cross-category comprehensive discipline facing emerging industries. It is difficult for a single company to do it independently and needs a large system to support it. " Yu Dexiang said, "Many small companies think that they can make money by getting a charging pile, and they can do charging by getting a charging pile. They feel that technology has no threshold. This is all incomprehensible. "
"The charging service must be made into a network. Not without the internet. For example, if you are a PHS now, will anyone use it? Toll network is like mobile and China Unicom. It serves mobile phones. Mobile phones are mobile and walk with people, so there must be a network, and the attributes of electric cars are the same. The electric car is moving, just move. Things have to have a network. " Yu Dexiang said, "As long as there is a network, it will not be a small business. It must be a service for almost all enterprises to survive. "
"At the same time, many people think that charging network is a consumer Internet platform, which is also wrong." Yu Dexiang said that the charging network is an information technology facility that connects people, cars, batteries and energy. It is not the same as the traditional charging pile, but a one-way physical charging plug. On this system, there is a huge interaction between people, cars and equipment every day. "Doing a charging network is an industrial Internet thinking. The data of the industrial Internet is growing, while the consumer Internet is a' cloud' floating in the sky. It is impossible to do industrial internet with internet thinking.
Yu Dexiang believes that the concentration of the charging industry will be higher and higher. "Without the accumulation of time and technology, the closed-loop operation of the entire industrial chain is hard to be lower than 100%."
Safety and battery life are pain points.
Running all the way, what is the pain point from the user's point of view?
Chen Xiaonan, the person in charge of the charging technology branch of State Grid Electric Vehicle Service Co., Ltd., pointed out that at present, electric vehicle battery fire accidents occur from time to time, which has a certain negative impact on industrial development. For example, at the equipment level, due to untimely operation and maintenance or improper user operation, the insulation of the charging pile is damaged, resulting in electric shock.
Special call to release "car burning guarantee service"
"The charging process and the static state after full charging are the main parts of fire accidents, and most of them are in a high charging state." Ju Qiang, chief scientist of TEL, pointed out that only during the charging process is it most suitable for battery safety monitoring.
"Historical data also shows that 80% of auto-ignition accidents of new energy vehicles occur during charging or within one hour after full charging. This means that if the charging safety can be guaranteed, the spontaneous combustion accident of electric vehicles can be greatly reduced. " Ju Peng said.
In addition, industry research believes that there are still shortcomings in the planning of public charging facilities. Chen Xiaonan, head of State Grid electric vehicles, said that the industry still has some shortcomings, such as imperfect planning guarantee mechanism, unbalanced regional development, mismatch between supply and demand, and low comprehensive utilization rate. The development of the charging industry is still a systematic project.
Another trillion market
The charging business of electric vehicles is not the only goal aimed at by head enterprises, and energy storage is another big market.
At present, under the goal of "carbon neutrality", energy storage is facing the opportunity of leap-forward development. According to the calculation of Everbright Securities, the demand space for energy storage in 2020-2030 is 3.9TWh, and the market space for energy storage in 2020-2060 is 94 TWh. In 2030, the market space for energy storage investment will be 1.3 trillion.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage (Draft for Comment)", which defined the development goals of the energy storage industry for the first time. By 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 30 million kilowatts (30GW), setting the tone for the energy storage industry from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development.
In recent years, telecommunications, State Grid, BYD, etc. Are all laid out in this field. The common practice is to use the power battery of electric vehicle as the energy storage carrier for comprehensive energy management.
For special calls focusing on charging business, it has abundant load-side resources such as charging piles, distributed energy storage and controllable loads for electric vehicles, and has its own aggregator platform, which can aggregate dispersed controllable loads to form a relatively large-scale "aggregate". The microgrid supported by the power grid is connected to photovoltaic and energy storage, and the energy can be absorbed in situ in the microgrid.
Teld billing network real-time dispatching center
Simply put, TELD regards the electric vehicle itself as a mobile "charging treasure", and every battery parked in the parking space is connected to the power grid, becoming a huge flexible energy storage battery system in the power grid, balancing the relationship between electricity consumption and power generation in the power grid. "TELD's energy storage can charge the car when the grid is low and sell electricity when it is high." Yu Dexiang described. When the microgrid has a certain scale, it can become a "power supply station" in a region.
At the same time, after the batteries of electric vehicles are eliminated, enterprises recycle them and put them into prefabricated warehouses to become energy storage equipment, forming a set of energy storage ladder utilization scheme for power batteries.
In addition, the energy storage business carried out by the State Grid is mainly based on the construction of an integrated charging station for optical storage and charging. Chen Xiaonan, the relevant person in charge, said that at present, we are speeding up the research on the capacity configuration scheme and safety protection technology of photovoltaic, energy storage and charging integrated facilities with the best economic benefits, adopting advanced DC bus technology and making full use of new energy sources such as photovoltaic and energy storage to solve the problems of limited distribution capacity and low voltage at the end of the power grid. At present, nearly 20 "light storage and charging" integrated charging stations have been built in Beijing, Fujian, Shandong, Shanghai and other cities, effectively improving operating income and efficiency.
The report "Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles 2.0" points out that charging+energy storage is also an important trend of technological development in the charging industry. The report points out that through the synergy of wind, light, storage, charging and vehicle network, the energy synergy of V 1G and V2G microgrid has created a huge demand space for the integrated development of transportation energy industry. Energy storage devices will be widely used, which will improve the safety of energy supply and help eliminate renewable energy.
The report pointed out that the future development trend of industry technology will evolve in establishing a new format of smart energy collaborative data service for mobile energy storage and smart grid.