Reasons for the 50% increase in net profit
Combined with the announcement of Angel Yeast's performance in the first quarter of 2020, it is estimated that the company will achieve a net profit of 390-440 million yuan in the second quarter of 2020, up 73%-93% year-on-year. Judging from the analysis and research reports of several brokers, this growth has exceeded market expectations.
Angel Yeast said in the announcement that in the first half of 2020, the main reason for the growth of the company's main business income was the rapid growth of the company's household consumption business and e-commerce business; Ye said that the downstream derivatives business such as animal nutrition, microbial business, brewing and enzyme preparation maintained a good growth trend.
A number of brokerage analysis and research reports attributed the sharp increase in Angel Yeast's net profit to the following reasons: the current company's production capacity is tight, the policy of buying and giving yeast, leaves and other products has been completely cancelled, the small packaged yeast in the C-end market is selling well, and the superimposed ex-factory price has increased, which has improved the overall gross profit margin.
Looking back on the months when travel was limited and the house was chasing drama, a large number of consumers began to try baking, and flour and yeast became "explosive products for sale" as baking necessities. According to the "Big Data of Housing Economy in the Spring Festival of 2020" released by Meituan, the search volume of baked goods on Meituan's take-out increased by 100 times, and the sales volume of yeast/koji products increased by nearly 40 times. According to the data released by JD.COM, since April 17 "Baking Festival", the overall sales volume of baked goods in supermarkets in JD.COM has increased rapidly. On April 18, the sales of baking powder increased by more than 200% year-on-year, and the sales of yeast increased by more than 2000% year-on-year.
Is growth sustainable?
In fact, the growth trend of C-terminal of Angel Yeast was obvious as early as 20 19. In 20 19, Angel Yeast achieved a total operating income of 7.65 billion, an increase of about 654.38 billion compared with 6.686 billion in 20 18. According to the specific data, this 654.38 billion revenue comes from the growth of online sales. In 20 19, the company's online sales revenue reached 2.663 billion yuan, and in 20 18 it was165.2 billion yuan.
Dong Yu, a partner of Dongji Positioning, said in an interview with the Economic Observer that the online channel is actually a C-side channel. Angel Yeast, as a TOB enterprise, will have a relatively low and stable profit at the B end, but at the C end, the profit will be significantly improved.
But the problem is that the "baking fever" may be just a temporary outbreak caused by the epidemic. As the epidemic is gradually controlled, the fever may also subside.
In the short term, Zhang Liming, director of Huatang Shang Yun Condiment Industry Research Center, pointed out that after the epidemic, as consumers return to normal working and living conditions, the time and frequency of cooking at home will decrease; At the same time, the recovery of catering will also offset the possibility of consumers cooking and eating at home. Therefore, Angel Yeast's high growth relying on the surge of family demand may not last forever, and its performance growth may drop slightly after the epidemic.
However, from the further trend, many analysts have given more optimistic judgments.
The analysis team of Huachuang Securities pointed out in the research report that the domestic yeast and food raw materials are in a good trend, and the number of small packaging production lines has increased from 1 at the beginning of the year to four at present. In Ali's online channel, Angel's sales in the second quarter increased by 1 17%. Although household consumption may decline after the epidemic situation stabilized, family consumption education in the first half of the year opened up the C-end market space and laid the foundation for the company's long-term development.
Dong Yu also pointed out that the growth of revenue and profit of any brand in the process of developing to the C-end depends on its position in the industry. Angel is the first yeast company in Asia and the third in the world, with a domestic market share of 55%. He has this advantage. In addition, with the help of the epidemic, more and more consumers are exposed to yeast powder, forming a brand recognition that Angel Yeast is synonymous with yeast. If Angel Yeast invests heavily in the later stage to build consumer brand awareness, the future growth will be very considerable.
Dong Yu also mentioned that if the strong influence of C-end is established, consumers' favor for Angel Yeast will force B-end merchants to choose Angel Yeast products, and Angel may gain stronger bargaining power at B-end in the future.
In addition to the growth of the C-end market, Angel Yeast's overseas business has also been improved under the influence of the epidemic. According to the analysis of Southwest Securities Research Report, in overseas markets, because Angel Yeast's competitors in overseas markets are all fresh yeasts, the shelf life is short and the requirements for manufacturing, transportation and storage are high. The dry yeast produced by the company has obvious advantages in storage and transportation, and has successfully entered more than ten European countries, and its sales volume has increased by about 3 times year-on-year.
According to the data, the three largest yeast leading enterprises in the world, Lesford, Lianying Mali and Angel Yeast, monopolize 64% of the global market and 90% of the market share in China, among which Angel Yeast has a domestic market share of 55%. According to the data of 20 19 annual report, the domestic market income of Angel Yeast reached 5.407 billion yuan, and the foreign market income was 21960,000 yuan, accounting for 7 1. 1% and 28.9% of the total income respectively.
In addition to the double-drive "carriage" in the C-end and overseas markets, many analysis points are also aimed at another development engine of Angel Yeast: Ye. YE is the abbreviation of English YeastExtract, which refers to yeast extract in the field of food seasoning.
Zhang Zaiyan, an analyst at Debon Securities, pointed out in the research report that the domestic leaf is in the early stage of development, with a compound growth rate of 2 1% in the past decade. At present, the total market capacity is nearly10.2 million tons, accounting for 66% of the market. The downstream application of leaves is extensive, and there is more room to replace traditional condiments such as monosodium glutamate. According to conservative forecast, the domestic market capacity of Ye will exceed 500,000 tons.
Zhang Liming said that monosodium glutamate, I+G (a flavor enhancer) and yeast extract are three umami substances in the food industry, among which yeast extract is the only umami substance with food properties and non-food additives. Angel yeast extract leaves are used in many fields of food and condiments with the characteristics of "enhancing freshness and fragrance, balancing odor, reducing salinity and saltiness, strong tolerance and strong edibility".
Li Wei, director of research on the positioning strategy of Dongji and director of the condiment industry research center, pointed out that the derivative developed by Angel Yeast around yeast-leaf, meets the development needs of China market. For example, adding leaves to soy sauce can improve freshness and taste. Leaves reduce the finished products of enterprises, but at the same time ensure the corresponding taste, which is in line with the choice of consumers and sinking market for cost performance.
But in Dongyu's view, the engine is indeed an engine, but in terms of active utilization, Angel Yeast is insufficient. Dong Yu pointed out that the leaves themselves have very good characteristics: they can keep delicious while reducing salt by 35%. It will be a huge business opportunity to show this card when consumers are constantly pursuing a healthy diet and reducing salt. "However, Angel Yeast is not obvious enough."
At the same time, Dong Yu pointed out that Angel Yeast did not emphasize the food attribute of leaves, that is, leaves are not food additives. "This is the second bright spot."
Zhang Liming also mentioned that although leaves have broad development prospects in the field of food processing, their awareness at the consumer side is low, and consumers do not understand their advantages and characteristics, so consumer education is still needed to open up a broader market space. Dong Yu believes that, first of all, the naming of leaves makes consumers confused, and even if it is publicized in the future, the communication cost will be high. In addition, Angel Yeast does not attach its leaves to specific products, so it lacks the opportunity to erupt.
Lack of diversified firepower
It is by discovering the potential development opportunities of the industry and exerting the synergistic advantages with yeast products that Ye is the more successful yeast derivative developed by Angel Yeast. In addition, in recent years, Angel Yeast has been developing in the direction of extension and diversification.
According to the data, Angel Yeast aims at the development direction of the whole industrial chain, and the upstream mainly extends to sugar making and packaging business; The middle reaches are mainly the company's traditional yeast business; The downstream relies on yeast technology to expand into baking fermented pasta, leaf food seasoning and other fields.
In April this year, Angel Yeast announced that it would invest 1 100 million yuan to establish Angel Newt Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Angel Newt"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of nutrition and health food. This is Angel Yeast once again involved in the health care products business after several years.
The reasons for diversified development are not difficult to understand. Since 20 18, the annual income growth rate of Angel Yeast has been declining for two consecutive years. From 20 17 to 20 18, the revenue growth rate of Angel Yeast was 18.83%, 15.75% and 14.47% respectively. Zhang Liming pointed out that single business will reduce the company's ability to resist risks, and Angel Yeast's diversified business is essentially to share risks and seek new performance growth.
However, Zhang Liming also pointed out that Angel Yeast's diversified development attempts in recent years have not achieved satisfactory results. According to the 20 19 annual report, Angel Yeast's main business includes yeast and deep-processed products, sugar making, packaging and dairy products, and its revenue accounts for 76.79%, 6.45%, 3.67% and 0.77% respectively. In 20 18, the above main businesses accounted for 8 1.86%, 4.85%, 3.42% and 0.87% respectively.
In fact, Angel Yeast's bet on the health care products market began as early as 199. 199 1 year, Angel Yeast founded the brand "Zhiduoxing" and entered the nutrition and health food industry. In 2005, the Nutrition and Health Division was established, and in 2007, the brand "Angel Newt" was launched to seize the market segment with yeast nutrition products.
But whether it is health care products, packaging materials or dairy products, each market itself is in a state of competition in the Red Sea. Is the diversified development path of Anji yeast feasible? Dong Yu pointed out that Angel Yeast needs to give reasons for consumers to choose Angel Yeast's health care products and dairy products. Take health care products as an example. In Angel Newt's Tmall flagship store, the top sellers are cod liver oil, probiotics and other products, which have little to do with yeast. "In this way, we can't take advantage of the original channels, supply chains, partners and other advantages."
Li Wei also pointed out that enterprises must be very cautious in the process of diversified development. In the face of new projects, it is necessary to establish a brand-new team, lay new channels and differentiate operations. At present, Angel Yeast has not thought about two questions, one is what value derivatives can provide to consumers, and the other is how Angel Yeast should respond if competitors from different tracks make the same products.
Dong Yu believes that Angel Yeast has not found a suitable point in the field of diversified development, and has not answered clearly the reasons why consumers choose you, so there is no differentiation. Diversification should first look for bright spots along the upstream and downstream of yeast. For example, tea yeast has the effects of lowering blood lipid and antioxidation. Combining products, we should find the application population and application field of tea yeast. After the scene and value are clear, consumers can understand it and then spread it vigorously.