Since the Spring Festival of 2008, the numbers of the epidemic have been changing every day. Quarantine, masks, disinfection and holidays have made many people's mood fall to the bottom like a "V". At the tourism industry level, the number of travel agencies affected by the new Crown pneumonia outbreak has more than tripled compared with the SARS outbreak.
The annual loss for the tourism industry is expected to reach 1 billion yuan, or 10 percent of GDP. Many travelers have been unsubscribed through thick and thin, but are convinced that the "V-shaped bottom has arrived" and that the ice is melting and there is hope for a revival.
Ordinary tourists are also lamenting: "Where are the flowers, where is the sunshine on the beach, where are the people with foreign food?
They disappeared from our circle of friends for three months. Foot bans and masks are not the right way to open your life. "Many people open a variety of social software, for the next trip "grass".
With the start of the nation's return to work, people are gradually returning to their usual lives, and the tourism industry is eager to prepare for the revival of various markets.
At present, the big-name scenic spot Meituan's pre-sale products have been online nearly 2,000, doubled in a week; "May Day" hotel search volume increased by 35%, more than 50% of travelers re-booked the Spring Festival trip;
More and more scenic spots resumed operation after the queue of crowds crowded, open the flow restrictions ...................
At the same time, Ctrip released the Destination Recovery Index Report (hereinafter referred to as the Report) through the big data platform "Travel Observer", which counts the "recovery scores" of hundreds of destinations.
40 destinations with recovery scores of over 50
This comprehensive report takes into account the global travel industry's recovery data before and after public health and safety incidents in recent years, the scale of year-on-year growth of the travel industry, outbreak forecasts, platform users' searches, browsing, ordering, bookmarking, as well as seasonal factors, and then builds an annual recovery forecast model for the industry.
According to the results presented by the model, the industry will begin to rise steadily as the epidemic is gradually controlled and calms down, and begin to grow with the arrival of traditional travel nodes such as May 1 and summer vacation, showing a clear V-shaped trend throughout the year. Even the end of the year, the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, should be expected to reach the highest point of the retaliatory rebound.
It is reported that this report is based on the comparative difference between the comprehensive data with and without the epidemic and the corresponding algorithm to derive the destination recovery index data, with 50 points being a key node. The results show that more than 40 domestic destinations have a recovery index of more than 50, showing signs of an early recovery period.
Sanya, Chengdu and Guizhou ranked among the top 3 destinations on China's "Hot Destinations on the Wish Index" list, while Shanghai, Xi'an, Beijing, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Kaifeng, Chongqing, Qingdao, Changsha, Suzhou, Huangshan, Huzhou, Tibet, Shenzhen, Wuyuan, and Guangxi were also on the list.
Overseas, in addition to Thailand, Japan, Singapore, the three "old friends", the list of countries also includes Vietnam, Dubai, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Germany, Britain, Canada, Morocco, New Zealand, Italy, South Korea, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Israel, Fiji.
Domestic: first-tier cities' confidence in "peripheral tours" rebounded
"Theme tours" have high expectations
Travel confidence affected by the epidemic may start to rebound from "peripheral tours". The report shows that consumers in first-tier cities such as North, Shanghai and Guangzhou are looking forward to the "peripheral tour" around Beijing, Tianjin, Qinhuangdao, Zhangjiakou, Baoding and Jinan; Huzhou, Huangshan, Lishui, Suzhou and Hangzhou around Shanghai;
Macao, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhanjiang and Guilin around Guangzhou are listed in the status of the The top five of the "neighboring tour" wish destination index list. In addition, Chengdu and its neighboring Guizhou, Chongqing, Ganzi, Lijiang, Shangri-La desire index rose.
While the epidemic has not yet passed, many consumers have already begun to aspire to "go for a walk", "enjoy the flowers", "see the sea". Wuyuan, Luoyang, Dalian, Tibet, Qinghai and other places famous for flowers, the highest desire index; Huangshan, Yangzhou, Yanqing, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, ranked "to the green" desire index ranking list; with the rising temperature, Sanya, Xiamen, Qingdao, Rizhao, Ningbo, in the domestic "hot seaside The list was dominated by Sanya, Qingdao, Rizhao and Ningbo, which are the most popular seaside destinations in China as the temperature rises.
In the Hot Topics list, the wish indexes for "family," "ancient cities," and "food" showed strong momentum. Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Suzhou, and Hangzhou are more attractive to families with children; Xi'an, Kaifeng, Jingzhou, Jincheng, and Shenyang, with their "Chinese style" attributes, top the list of "ancient city destinations;" and foodies are more likely to be attracted to the "ancient city destinations" because of their long history of enduring the Because foodies who have endured the epidemic for a long time prefer regional cities in western and southern China, Guangdong, Shanghai, Chengdu, Chongqing and Changsha may welcome a large number of "diners" after the epidemic.
Overseas: "islands", "parent-child shopping", "exotic flavor" into the key words
Since 2013, China's outbound travel number and Reports show that although still dormant in the midst of the epidemic, the Chinese can't contain their enthusiasm for beaches, shopping and exotic flavors.
In the list of offshore destinations including "family", "shopping" and "exotic", Japan is the first choice, which makes people feel good; Singapore, Italy, Britain, Germany, South Korea, Dubai and the United States are the most popular destinations in the world. , Britain, Germany, South Korea, Dubai, Canada and other popular destinations followed.
Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam, Fiji and Greece are the dream beaches everyone wants to fly to. Morocco, Abu Dhabi, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Israel, Argentina and Serbia rounded out the list for "exoticism".
Seize the opportunity to be ready to wait for a good time to go all out
According to the "National Economic and Social Development Statistics Bulletin" statistics, the annual domestic tourists 6.01 billion, an increase of 8.4% over the previous year; domestic tourism revenue of 5,725.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7%. According to the original growth forecast, this year will exceed 6 trillion.
Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development of the Year
The tourism industry is responsible as the leading industry of happiness. This time, affected by the epidemic, everyone's travel demand is only temporarily suppressed. In the long run, the epidemic will eventually pass and the market will eventually kick into full gear.
In the short term, the suppressed demand for tourists will increase with a vengeance after the end of the epidemic, and not only will the tourism industry not be on the right track, but it will even show a "blowout" trend.
In the face of such a huge potential demand for tourism, tourism companies need to be confident about the future. Tourism is a highly market-oriented industry. As long as the market demand is restarted, the corresponding tourism economic system can quickly resume operation.
In such a special period, enterprises should seize the hidden opportunities during the downturn and prepare for optimization and upgrading to cope with the full recovery of the market in the future, sending positive signals to the tourism market and building up people's confidence in tourism. Once the wave of travel hits, you are ready to go all out and will naturally be the best in riding the wave.