Since mid-April, pig prices to achieve a rapid rise across the board, farmers' confidence in the aftermath of the market has gradually turned from pessimism to optimism and then to extreme optimism, and then the market appeared to be crazy bottoming out and fat to mother, especially pig prices continued to rise for a month, the market appeared to be such a voice: "Pig prices have entered the upward trend, the new round of pig cycle has been opened ".
For this voice on the market, there are different views in the industry at present, and I think the views are mainly divided into three categories:
One, the industry institutions: the current still belongs to the tail of the pig cycle. Generally speaking, the second quarter for the pig market consumption off-season, the farmers will be reduced accordingly, the recent rebound in pig prices is a short-term mismatch between supply and demand, in line with the seasonal law of the pig market, and can not be used as the main reference to hog production capacity in place. In addition, the number of breeding sows is still 41.77 million, from the official control of the highest value is still more than 770,000, capacity is obviously not de-complete, leading companies are still expanding to enhance the market share, although last year so far pig losses are larger, but there is no obvious de-capacity.
Two, the expert team: pig prices have entered a rising channel, a new round of pig cycle has opened. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs pork industry chain monitoring and early warning chief analyst Zhu Zengyong that two rounds of pig price trough stage can be defined as a complete pig cycle, then as of March 2022 is the end of the last round of the pig cycle, a new round of the pig cycle has been opened from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, the overall industry will be in the state of a small profit.
Three, large-scale pig enterprises: more optimistic about the second half of the market . For the real pig people, more concerned about the trend of the market. Right now the scale hog farms are generally optimistic about the second half of the market, especially in the fourth quarter of the peak season of consumption. However, for the capacity to go, large-scale pig enterprises think it will take some time, that at least until the third quarter to really enter a new cycle.
For the divergence of different views above, I think it is still more recognized the tail end of the cycle of this point of view, the price of hogs by the market supply and demand decision, and supply and demand is affected by a lot of factors, it is possible that a short period of time to cause pig prices to soar, but from the big data, especially the breeding sows inventory, still need to continue to downward adjustment on the consumption of the market now, the price of hogs or will continue to shock for a period of time.
Do you think a new round of pig cycle opened?