Shenzhen, Nanjing and other places to introduce the most stringent purchase restrictions in history, home prices more adjusted the more the strange circle can be broken?
Since July, the national property market control policy wind and clouds. Since the introduction of the most stringent purchase restrictions in the history of Shenzhen, including Nanjing and other places have tightened purchase restrictions, to the current rapid rise in high prices poured a pot of cold water.
However, more than ten years of regulation down, housing prices are repeatedly adjusted upward. From a single source, in the last five years, the price of a house in some cities doubled is not uncommon. How to resolve the high house price weir? How to break the cycle of repeatedly adjusted housing prices? How to break the pattern of real estate interests? Experts said that the construction of real estate long-term mechanism is a long way to go, further efforts are needed.
Second-hand house prices rose 20% a year
In the National Bureau of Statistics housing price data released the day before the July 15 9:30, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban Renewal and other departments jointly announced the latest property market control measures, "deep eight". Among the provisions, deep households, adult singles (including divorced) must be settled for three years, and continuously pay three years of personal tax or social security, to be eligible to buy a home; non-departmental households, adult singles (including divorced) need to pay five years of personal tax or social security to buy a home, and so on.
"The purchase restriction is the most representative and immediate policy in the ten years of property market regulation, and Shenzhen's version of the 'eight articles of Shenzhen' is currently one of the toughest versions in the national property market," Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told China News Weekly. Li Yuja told China News Weekly that compared with some cities where you can qualify to buy a home by settling down, Shenzhen has set a three-year settlement limit for local households and individuals, as well as a three-year limit on personal tax and social security payments, and its restrictive purchasing policy significantly raises the threshold for home purchases, keeping some unreasonable demand for homes out of the market.
At the same time, Shenzhen's property market restrictions on lending has been further upgraded, the implementation of the recognition of housing and loans, with a commercial loan or provident fund loan down payment of not less than 50%, the purchase of a second suite of down payment of not less than 70%; in addition, to further increase the taxable price of second-hand housing, individual housing transfer VAT exemption from the limit of two years adjusted to five years.
In this regard, Li Yujia said, the Shenzhen property market control measures comprehensive upgrade, unprecedented strength, will greatly inhibit the property market speculation space, which is the situation.
In the "deep eight" introduced 24 hours later, July 16 at 9:30, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the 70 cities in June housing price changes. Among them, as China's housing price leader, the four first-tier cities in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the overall price of new commercial residential property rose 0.6%, of which the price of new commercial residential property in Shenzhen rose 0.8%, the largest increase. In the second-hand residential market, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.7%, 0.4%, 0.8% and 1.9% respectively, with Shenzhen's rate of increase much higher than that of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
From a year-on-year perspective, Shenzhen's home prices rose even more prominently. in June, Shenzhen's second-hand homes rose 14.3 percent year-on-year, much higher than in other first- and second-tier cities. In this regard, Li Yujia said, from the point of view of some intermediary listing listings, last year, the average price of Shenzhen's second-hand houses listed between 55,000 yuan and 60,000 yuan, while this year the average price is 65,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan, which means that many second-hand house prices rose by more than 20 percent.
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy housing big data project team leader Zou Linhua told China News Weekly, first-tier cities is the wind vane of housing prices, and its rise directly determines the national housing prices rising space, Shenzhen as a first-tier cities in the price of housing prices in the leader, the trend is too big and too fast, and the market also shows excessive speculative investment wind, heavy-handed suppression is imperative.
Real estate should be abandoned?
As the wind vane of the property market, Shenzhen introduced the most stringent restrictions on purchases and other stringent control measures, obviously has a special signaling significance.
"This shows that the rapid rise in housing prices is still a red line in the property market, the main keynote of housing without speculation can not be breached," said Li Yujia, part of the transaction is active, housing prices rose too much in the city, will be followed up with the introduction of strict control measures.
July 23, Nanjing multi-departmental building market adjustment of the new policy, to further tighten the policy of restriction of purchase, inhibit speculation. One of the provisions of the couple divorced within two years before the divorce of the total number of units of family housing, blocking the channels of divorce speculation; at the same time, for the "10,000 people shaking" one hard to find the phenomenon of housing, Nanjing City, the provisions of the opening of commercial housing, shall be provided to the city's household registration of families without a home of not less than 30% of the housing stock.
Previously, Dongguan, Hangzhou, Ningbo and other places have also tightened the property market control measures, greater efforts to protect the demand, to combat speculation and other chaotic phenomena.
So, Shenzhen's heavy-handed crackdown on the property market, does it mean that the property market policy began to take a fundamental turn? Has the real estate industry become a pariah?
In this regard, Miao Meng, deputy general manager of the urban development department of E-House, told China Newsweek that under the current economic environment and development stage, the real estate industry has its unique position.
On July 16, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that China's GDP in the second quarter was 250,011 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2 percent over the same period a year earlier, compared with a year-on-year decline of 6.8 percent in the first quarter, and the economic growth rate has finally turned from negative to positive.
Zhao Tonglu, director of the National Bureau of Statistics' National Economic Accounting Department, said in response that the three major demands in the second quarter all had a significantly improved pulling effect on GDP compared with the first quarter, in which the pulling effect of investment on economic growth was significantly stronger.
The data showed that gross capital formation in the second quarter pulled GDP growth of 5 percentage points, while in the same period, final consumption expenditure downward pull GDP 2.3 percentage points, net exports of goods and services pulled GDP growth of 0.5 percentage points.
"In the environment of the epidemic, investment is more likely to take root and become an important engine to pull China's economy," said Miao Meng, and from the investment of several large into the scale of the plate, compared to the infrastructure investment fell 2.7% year-on-year, the first half of the real estate development investment rose 1.9% year-on-year, taking the lead in realizing the first from the drop Turned up, becoming one of the few bright spots in economic growth.
Shenzhen, its economic trend is basically the same as the country. In the first half of the year, the Shenzhen economy, investment is relatively more active, and among them, real estate investment and relatively good trend.
As early as 2011, Beijing introduced the most stringent property market restrictions at the time, but nearly a decade, the scale of real estate investment in Beijing is still running at a high level, and its market turnover is also continuing to release.
"Fresh demand is the fundamental driving force behind the development of the property market, the reason why investment and speculative demand exists, the reason why they dare to speculate in real estate, or because there are people who come to take over," said Miao Meng, with the advancement of urbanization, the group of fresh demand is still huge, from the strict restrictions on the purchase of the demand will be slowed down to enter the market, but the real estate market is still the driving force of the forward movement, in particular, some cities with a greater influx of population. Some of the cities with more population influx.
How to crack the housing price repeatedly adjusted repeatedly rise?
Rising house prices, regulation, falling house prices, loosening - for more than a decade, China's real estate market has entered into such a strange circle of regulation, which has not yet been solved.
With the policy continues to land, Shenzhen property market is undergoing some changes. On the one hand, due to the pre-contracted housing stock is being digested, Shenzhen primary house for many consecutive days more than 100 sets of transactions; on the other hand, intermediary data show that the second-hand house listing listings are rapidly reduced, some of the second-hand house has begun to reduce the price of 1 million to sell.
Li Yuga said, for the Shenzhen property market, on the one hand, the effective supply is too little, on the other hand, due to the outstanding industrial advantages, the influx of population faster, the demand for buying houses, the contradiction between supply and demand is still always there, which means that once the policy environment has been loosened, the housing price bubble is likely to be blown up again.
"The current round of national housing prices rise, is because the operation of a decade of the property market control system has been basically dissolved," said Zou Linhua, since the beginning of 2010, the property market regulation and control to limit the purchase, limit the loan as the main means of inheritance, with the lowering of the threshold for settlement in some places, the effect of the limit is greatly reduced, coupled with the funds this year The end of the more generous, people can get lower interest rates than commercial mortgage funds, which formed a greater dissolution of the loan restrictions, the most stringent regulation of the property market in Shenzhen is equivalent to a reconstruction of the property market regulation, the reconstruction of the current see there are still some shortcomings, but this requires a process.
On the one hand, with the repeated adjustment of housing prices, now China has formed a high price weir. National Bureau of Statistics data show that from January to June, the commercial property sales area of 694.04 million square meters, down 8.4% year-on-year, commercial property sales of 6,689.5 billion yuan, down 5.4%, that is, in the first half of this year China's housing prices compared to the first half of last year still rose 3.3%.
On the other hand, due to the different strengths of the property market regulation and control policies across the country, different provisions, often according to the gourd floating ladybird, the property market turnover and housing prices show the ups and downs of the changes. Such as in Shenzhen and other places to introduce the most stringent restrictions since the purchase, Shanghai and other places in the property market but more active, single-day transactions reached thousands of sets.
Mu Meng said that, in the end, for the housing bubble, because it involves too wide and too deep, we still lack a systematic and long-term response to the policy, however, this may require a specific time.
At present, for the long-term mechanism of real estate, all walks of life are very different.
A previously involved in a key city of real estate reform experts told China News Weekly, in the design of real estate policy for the city, the relevant parties invited experts from all aspects of the industry, but we basically started to stick to their own views, it is difficult to unify the views. The expert said the same controversy was triggered when the real estate tax was discussed at a similar meeting later on.
In response to the current round of housing prices in Shenzhen, the housing and construction sector to invite the real estate industry to discuss, from the public information, initially the same position is different, a variety of opinions are diverse. However, in the end, Shenzhen introduced the most stringent purchase restrictions.
Mu Meng said, from the current idea of regulation, in the more stringent restrictions on purchases and other policy inhibition, housing prices do not rise is down, the real need to buy a home for the fresh demand can be in accordance with the idea of time for space, choose the opportunity to enter the market, at the same time, all kinds of speculation in speculation will be strictly extruded.
Zou Linhua believes that from the perspective of the reconstruction of the property market policy, to resolve the dilemma of high prices, and ultimately to do a major shift in the land, the tax system, etc., at present, with the landing of the collective rental housing, etc., this aspect of the exploration in the advancement of the further force is needed.