In 2018, affected by the downward pressure of the macro-economy, the automobile market experienced the first market decline in 28 years; in 2019, the automobile industry is facing a more complex and severe external environment, with the downward pressure of the macro-economy further intensifying, the economic and trade friction between China and the U.S. persisting, coupled with the impact brought by the policy and the weakening of the industry's original endogenous growth momentum, which further affects the market volatility, and eventually the The market decline further expanded compared to 2018, and the industry's benefits also declined to a greater extent.
In the face of the sudden epidemic of new crown pneumonia, the automotive industry is even "worse", the downward pressure of the automotive industry is unprecedented.
Currently, automotive enterprises to promote the orderly resumption of work and production, and achieved certain results. However, the epidemic brought about by the logistics, the flow of people is not smooth, the shortage of epidemic prevention materials, in particular, the automotive market demand is insufficient, stagnant consumption and other issues still exist, seriously affecting the further recovery of enterprise production.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) recently conducted a special research on "Promoting Stable Growth of the Automobile Industry" to understand the demands of enterprises, solve the difficulties of enterprises, and assist the state and relevant ministries and commissions in studying relevant policies and measures to better and faster start the demand for automobile market.
The current economic situation of the automobile industry is grim
The rapid spread of the new coronary pneumonia since the second half of January 2020 has brought a huge impact on the economy and people's lives in China. Affected by the epidemic, the scale of automobile production and sales in February plummeted, and the resumption of production by enterprises lagged significantly, thus bringing many problems in the consumer market and enterprise production and operation.
February, automobile production and sales fell sharply compared with the ring and year-on-year. In the same month, automobile production and sales were completed 285,000 units and 310,000 units, down 83.9%, down 79.8% and 79.1% year-on-year. 2,048,000 units and 2,238,000 units of automobile production and sales were completed in January-February, down 45.8% and 42% year-on-year, respectively.
February, the new energy vehicle production and sales were completed 9,951,000 and 12,908 units, down 82.9% and 75.2% over the same period last year. January-February, the new energy vehicle production and sales were completed 53,840 and 59,705 units, down 63.8% and 59.5% over the same period last year.
Auto industry trend is not optimistic
The epidemic will have a huge impact on the automotive industry in the first quarter of operation. If the epidemic is effectively controlled at the end of March, production and sales are expected to decline in the first quarter at about 45%, the first half of production and sales decline of about 25%. After the end of the epidemic, the inhibition of consumer demand will be released in the short term, the automobile market will usher in a wave of short-lived consumer peak, but by the decline in income of some residents, especially the decline in income of the middle and low-income groups, the full-year development of the automobile market situation is still not optimistic. The whole year the industry will show a trend of low before and high after.
Stabilizing growth, boosting domestic demand, and promoting consumption policy recommendations
(a) As soon as possible to introduce policies to stimulate consumption potential
1. Restricted areas to appropriately increase the quota of automobile license plates. Cities that have implemented automobile purchase restrictions to accelerate the relaxation of purchase restrictions, following Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Guiyang, it is recommended that Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hangzhou and other places to actively follow up on the release of purchase restrictions on the quota of indicators, including the conditional lifting of new energy vehicle purchase restrictions.
Consumers in purchase-restricted cities generally have a higher demand for automotive products, while consumers in purchase-restricted cities have stronger spending power, so liberalizing the purchase restriction will effectively promote the purchase of automobiles by consumers in such cities. We believe that local governments in cities with purchase restrictions should reasonably guide the use of private cars, reduce the intensity of car use by refining traffic control and building urban intelligent transportation networks, and achieve a balanced development of the auto industry and urban transportation.
2. Include personal car purchase expenditure in the special additional deduction for personal income tax. In particular, for individuals purchasing energy-saving and environmentally friendly or new energy vehicles, they are allowed to deduct their car purchase expenditures over a period of years, so as to promote automobile consumption.
3. Adjust the purchase tax rate for small-displacement passenger cars (below 1.6L). Adjust the vehicle purchase tax rate, small displacement (1.6L class below) permanently implement lower tax rates, such as the current tax rate by half.
1.6L and the following displacement of automobile product sales to promote the majority of low- and middle-income people's automobile consumption, boosting domestic demand is of great significance. First, from the point of view of market structure, 1.6L and the following emissions of automobiles accounted for more than 65% of the market proportion, the market size is large. Secondly, 1.6L and the following displacement car consumption is mostly for the low- and middle-income people, more sensitive to the price, the impact of the policy effect is obvious, can quickly stimulate automobile consumption. Third, from the point of view of guiding social energy conservation and emission reduction, it is recommended to promote the consumption of 1.6L and the following small-displacement automobile products.
4, increase the four or five cities and townships to encourage the policy strength of the automobile market. Combined with the recently released automobile to the countryside policy, the development of a detailed program for the four or five lines of cities, towns and other automobile markets, to promote agricultural vehicles to purchase light passenger cars, cash subsidies, reduction or exemption of vehicle purchase tax, the inclusion of tax credits, reduce the cost of automobile use in a variety of forms, to promote the growth of consumption in the automobile market.
Four and five-tier cities, townships and villages are important potential markets for automobile consumption upgrading, and it is actively encouraged to give appropriate subsidies and concessions to township and rural residents in areas with greater purchasing potential for scrapping three-wheeled vehicles, purchasing trucks with a capacity of 3.5 tons or less, or passenger cars with a capacity of 1.6 liters or less. Along with the continuous promotion of the battle against poverty, the per capita disposable income of rural residents in China's townships and villages has been growing at a high rate in recent years, and more and more rural residents in the townships and villages have entered the development stage of "upgrading consumption of agricultural vehicles to automobiles", thus becoming a potential group of new car consumers. Therefore, to promote this part of the consumers to buy cars or upgrade consumption for cars, will play an important role in the development of China's new car market and market stability.
5. Implementation of subsidies for purchase tax reductions for the replacement of vehicles with National III or lower emissions. It will take three years to replace all vehicles before the National III emission stage (as of 2018, China's National II and previous vehicle holdings are about 17 million), which is expected to add 5 million vehicles to the market each year; the current National III vehicle holdings are about 43 million. The elimination of old vehicles can be considered for overseas export support, encourage the export of used vehicles, and increase the export tax rebate. Both to solve environmental concerns, but also to achieve consumption upgrading, boosting domestic demand.
6. Increase automotive financial support. Suggestions March-December 2020 financial industry to increase the automobile personal consumer credit special funding support, in the down payment ratio down, 100% discount support, repayment period extension and other aspects of the full range of support for automobile consumers, to promote the release of automobile consumption potential. Solve the problem of declining income from car purchases by employees of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
7. Establish vehicle information to promote vehicle circulation and used car consumption. It is recommended to establish a vehicle big data platform, the vehicle license, repair and maintenance records and other information can be desensitized after the information public query, the buyer can fully grasp the vehicle condition of the vehicle purchased information, to promote the healthy development of the second-hand car industry. At the same time, actively breaking down barriers to circulation, further liberalization of used car relocation restrictions, and ultimately the complete abolition of used car relocation restrictions, allowing all used cars to circulate throughout the country.
(2) Appropriate adjustment and delay the implementation of policies and regulations
Adaptive adjustment of the "double points" policy requirements. It is recommended to appropriately adjust the "double points" assessment requirements for enterprises in 2020 to improve the operability of the policy.
Delaying the implementation of National VI PN limits, standardized models, ETC and other standard requirements. Taking into account the impact of the epidemic caused by the delay in the certification of enterprises, delay in production preparation, inventory digestion and other issues, it is recommended that the new National VI PN limit value standards, operating vehicles to meet the requirements of the standard models, ETC and other standards to give appropriate delay in the implementation.
(C) continue to vigorously develop the new energy automobile industry
1. Optimize and continue the new energy subsidy policy. Optimize, promote and clarify as early as possible the 2020 follow-up subsidy policy, that is, the abolition of the subsidy standards in the driving range, battery specific energy and other closely related to the demand for technical indicators required to relax (adjusted to 2 years 10,000 kilometers) or cancel the 2 years 20,000 kilometers of the requirements of the use of new energy vehicles continue to be given to the use of new energy vehicles subsidies and strengthen the subsidies for new energy vehicles; accelerate the speed of new energy subsidy disbursement, simplify the process, and reduce financial pressure on the enterprises. enterprises to reduce financial pressure.
2. Improve the convenience of using new energy vehicles. Cultivate the new energy vehicle consumer market to maturity, and give preferential policies to new energy vehicles such as licenses, right of way, parking fee reductions, toll reductions, and so on. Restricted cities will cancel or increase the quota of new energy vehicle license plates.
3. Continue to increase the construction of new energy infrastructure, increase the use of new energy vehicles to promote and publicize, etc.. Timely disbursement of the central financial charging infrastructure construction and operation of award funds; the introduction of special operating subsidies during the epidemic policy guidance; guide banks and other financial institutions to provide subsidized credit to support the charging infrastructure enterprises; increase the charging infrastructure in residential areas to promote the construction of allotments to open up the barriers to the installation of personal charging facilities management; charging operating companies to clearly enjoy the same charging preferential policies of 5% tariffs.
(4) Cultivate automobile characteristic consumption, and promote the continuous expansion of the automobile market.
1. Encourage the consumption of pickup trucks. At present, six provinces and cities have lifted the ban on pickup trucks into the city, from these provinces and cities to implement the situation shows that the effect is good. To this end, it is recommended that the full lifting of the ban on pickup trucks into the city restrictions, and actively encourage pickup truck consumption fees, and scientific promotion of the development of pickup trucks.
In 2016, the state began to Henan, Hebei, Yunnan, Liaoning, Hubei, Xinjiang, six provinces to try to "relax pickup trucks into the city" pilot work, and achieved good results, the 2017-2018 annual sales growth rate of more than 10%, while the size of the pickup truck from 340,000 to close to 500,000 units. . Pickup trucks, as a new growth point in the future market, have considerable market growth potential.
It is reported that between 2019 and 2020 Chongqing, Qingdao, Jilin, Jinan, Shandong, Nanchang, Jiangxi, Ningbo, Zhejiang, Qinhuangdao, Hebei and other large and medium-sized cities have issued a relaxation of pickup trucks into the city. Recently, due to the impact of the epidemic, in order to ensure a stable supply of living goods as well as the smooth progress of the resumption of work and production, Lanzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and many other cities have relaxed the restrictions on the entry of freight vehicles (including pickup trucks) into the city. We hope that more cities will follow suit to provide better support for the potential of the pickup truck market.
2. Promote leisure consumption of RVs. Actively create conditions to cultivate the development of the travel vehicle (RV) market and promote RV consumption.
With the diversified development of consumer demand, automotive products with certain special features will be more and more favored, therefore, focusing on these consumer development trends and encouraging the development of related featured models will cultivate an emerging growth point for China's new car market.
Conclusion
The year 2020 is the decisive year for China to build a moderately prosperous society in all aspects, and it is also the closing year of the 13th Five-Year Plan of the National Economy. In the face of the impact of the epidemic, CCAA and the automobile industry enterprises will continue to defy the difficulties and move forward; the whole industry has the confidence and determination to work hard to promote the steady growth of the automobile industry, and to push the industry to develop healthily and sustainably, which will contribute to the stable development of the macro-economy. Macroeconomic stabilization and development to contribute.
This article comes from the authors of Automotive Home, and does not represent the views of Automotive Home.