This year marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of New China, and it is also a crucial year for building a well-off society in an all-round way and achieving the goal of the first century. It is very important to do a good job in economic work this year. Judging from the economic operation in the first quarter of this year, the main macroeconomic indicators remained in a reasonable range, market confidence was significantly improved, the transformation of old and new kinetic energy was accelerated, and reform and opening up continued to be vigorously promoted.
On the basis of a generally stable economic operation and a good start, to further improve the economic work throughout the year, we need to closely focus on implementing the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, implement the planning and deployment of this year's Government Work Report on promoting high-quality development, maintain sustained and healthy economic development and overall social stability, and lay a decisive foundation for building a well-off society in an all-round way.
First, fully understanding the long-term positive trend of China's economy is the ideological basis for promoting high-quality development.
20 18 China faces three severe challenges. The first is the profoundly changing external environment, and economic globalization has encountered twists and turns; Secondly, the pain of economic transformation is prominent, and the economic operation is changing steadily, which is worrying; Third, there are more and more dilemmas. To achieve multiple goals, accomplish multiple tasks and deal with multiple relationships, it is more difficult to choose policies and jobs.
Despite this, China's economy is still generally stable, progressing steadily, and the overall social situation remains stable. In 20 19, the external environment we are facing is still not optimistic. With the slowdown of world economic growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would lower its outlook for global economic growth, and cut its forecast for global economic growth in 20 19 to 3.5%.
At the same time, protectionism and unilateralism have intensified, international commodity prices have fluctuated greatly, unstable and uncertain factors have increased significantly, and external input risks have risen. Nevertheless, China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, and the long-term trend of economic improvement has not and will not change. This is manifested in:
China's economy is resilient enough. In 20 18, the industrial added value exceeded 30 trillion yuan under the environment of greatly reduced industrial production capacity and stricter environmental protection supervision. With the domestic structural deleveraging and the tightening of financing environment, the economic benefits of enterprises have continued to improve. In 20 18 years, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 6635 1 100 million yuan, an increase of 10.3% over the previous year.
At the same time, affected by the continuous expansion of service industry demand and rising prices, the operating profit of service industry also maintained rapid growth. The operating income of service industries above designated size increased by 1 1.4% compared with the previous year, and the operating profit increased by 6.5%. China has great economic potential. The demand structure of China economy has undergone major adjustment, and consumption has become the first driving force of economic growth.
The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth in 20 18 is 76.2%. According to the current development trend, the retail scale of commodities in China is expected to exceed $4 trillion in the next few years and become the largest retail market in the world. China's economy remains vigorous and innovative. Expenditure on research and development (R&D) was 201965.7 billion yuan, an increase of1.6% over the previous year.
In 20 18, the number of newly established enterprises exceeded 180,000, and the total number of market entities exceeded10,000,000. New energy vehicles, industrial robots, rail transit equipment and other industries have developed rapidly, and the industrial scale ranks among the top in the world, and the development quality and efficiency have been significantly improved.
Second, the smooth circulation of the national economy is the realistic basis for promoting high-quality development.
At the level of economic operation, it faces the dual risks of interweaving old and new contradictions and overlapping cyclical and structural problems. In the current situation of increasing downward pressure on the economy, it is necessary to grasp the rhythm and intensity of introducing policies and measures to adjust the structure and prevent risks in macroeconomic regulation and control. To this end, it is necessary to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and moderately increase demand control.
In particular, the proactive fiscal policy should be intensified to improve efficiency, and the prudent monetary policy should be moderately tight to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. However, these counter-cyclical macro-control measures do not mean "flood irrigation", let alone a fundamental change in macro-policy orientation. During the period of 20 19 or even longer, the basic policy orientation of China's economic macro-control will follow the "Five Persistences".
1, adhere to the general tone of steady progress. Coordinating steady growth, promoting reform, adjusting structure, benefiting people's livelihood and preventing risks; Further stabilize employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment and expectations.
2. Adhere to the new development concept. Adhere to the people-centered development concept, firmly establish the development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and enjoyment, introduce more powerful measures, and continue to promote vivid practice.
3. Insist on promoting high-quality development. High-quality development should not only be reflected in poverty alleviation and rural revitalization, but also in deepening new urbanization, strengthening pollution prevention and ecological civilization construction.
4. Adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line. Work hard on "consolidating, strengthening, upgrading and smoothing", adopt more reform methods, and use more means of marketization and rule of law to consolidate the results of "three to one, one reduction and one supplement". At the same time, we must continue to fight three tough battles, adhere to structural deleveraging, prevent abnormal fluctuations in financial markets, and handle local government debt risks.
5. Insist on deepening market-oriented reform and expanding high-level opening up. This requires us to continue to adhere to and improve China's basic economic system and improve the institutional mechanisms that are compatible with high-quality development. On the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the state-owned enterprises through reform and innovation, and constantly enhance their development vitality and core competitiveness.
On the other hand, we should make great efforts to optimize the development environment of the private economy and promote its better development. At the same time, it is necessary to deepen the reform of fiscal and taxation financial system in the process of innovation and improvement of macro-control, especially to reduce taxes and fees on a larger scale and give micro-subjects greater vitality.
Third, promoting the continuous transformation of old and new kinetic energy is the key link to promote high-quality development.
This year's government work report has deployed 10 tasks, each of which is very important. From the perspective of promoting high-quality economic development, the key link is to promote the continuous transformation of old and new kinetic energy. Promoting the transformation of old and new kinetic energy should be based on promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. The basic way to upgrade traditional industries is to integrate with modern service industry and improve the service level of manufacturing industry.
Its basic laws roughly include the following three points: First, the horizontal upgrading of the value chain. Extending from manufacturing to upstream, upgrading to R&D, design, creativity and standards, such as rail transit equipment industry; It extends downstream from manufacturing to brands, channels, logistics and services, such as home appliance industry. The second is the vertical upgrade on the value chain network.
Enterprises engaged in manufacturing should upgrade from module suppliers to system integrators, such as high-end ships and major technical equipment industries. The third is innovation at the level of value integration. This mainly includes informationization, intelligence, greening and service of manufacturing industry. Promoting the conversion of old and new kinetic energy requires the layout of emerging industries in advance. Deepen the research and development of big data, next-generation information technology and artificial intelligence.
Develop emerging industrial clusters such as high-end manufacturing, biomedicine, new energy vehicles and new materials, and expand the digital economy. It should be noted that the digital economy with data as the key input factor will become an important driving force for economic development. In this regard, it is necessary to increase investment, strengthen the construction of information infrastructure and promote the deep integration of the Internet and the real economy.
Accelerate the digitalization and intelligence of traditional industries, make the digital economy bigger and stronger, and expand new space for economic development. It should also be noted that intelligent manufacturing has become a new trend of high-quality development of industrial economy, and autonomous driving is one of the most promising commercial fields of intelligent manufacturing. We need to focus on these emerging industries, lay out in advance, accumulate strength and promote the conversion of old and new kinetic energy.
Promoting the conversion of old and new kinetic energy requires reform and tackling key problems. With the change of major social contradictions in our country, people's yearning for a better life will focus more on the demand for public goods and services. Insufficient supply and poor quality of public goods and services are the main manifestations of current underdevelopment, and introducing market mechanism can effectively solve the problems of insufficient supply and poor quality.
Public goods not only have different levels of welfare, but also have different levels of goods, which should be properly classified, treated differently and given specific policies; Attract social capital investment and alleviate the lack of government investment. These special industries are also inclusive. After the introduction of market mechanism, we should not take profit as the sole purpose, but solve the problems of investment return and commercial interests of enterprise development.
To promote the conversion of old and new kinetic energy, it is necessary to solve the problems of insufficient knowledge and experience and insufficient capital accumulation. At present, many SMEs are worried and confused. An important reason is that under the new situation, relying on new kinetic energy to develop new formats, new business models and new industries is beyond the previous knowledge and experience, so that some enterprises do not know where to start.
We should also see that some emerging industries need large investment and high technology, and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises lack the corresponding investment and operation capabilities. Therefore, to promote the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, it is necessary to stimulate the enthusiasm of the whole society to learn new knowledge, promote the popularization of new skills, and explore new modes of social capital accumulation.