Shenzhen people are more and more or less, I think this understanding will be more appropriate, first of all, Shenzhen's extreme shortage of school places, on the one hand, the government every day to build, on the other hand, the public every day to lack, at least from the number of elementary school students students, the conclusion that the people of Shenzhen is less and less is debatable, but is it possible to say that the people of Shenzhen is more and more on the basis of this? It seems that we can not, because the factories in Shenzhen is indeed becoming less, the corresponding population should also be less, the business of the village is not doing well, why? Why? It's because there are fewer people! Where did the people go, housing, housing, low-cost housing, Guanwai relatively remote neighborhood housing, Dongguan Huizhou, near the deep neighborhood housing absorbed a considerable number of people who originally lived in the village and Guanwai better than a group of people living in urban villages. Then people in the end is more, or less, I think I should say that more people suitable for Shenzhen, feel unsuitable for Shenzhen to leave more people, so more people, less people should be said, more people go, more people come, overall people should not be too drastic changes.

In response to the question of what will happen to Shenzhen tomorrow, my personal attitude is full of confidence, I believe that Shenzhen tomorrow will be better, health care will be better, education will be better, pension will be better, as long as they can really find their place in Shenzhen to settle down down to work hard to dream, tomorrow will be better

Shenzhen official statistics

Resident population The number of people who live in Shenzhen is increasing. Resident population figures are up, but the actual population (both resident and temporary, i.e. people living in the city for less than half a year or transiting the city for a short period of time) is down.

According to data released by the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the resident population of Shenzhen was 130,266,000 at the end of 2018, an increase of 498,300 from the end of the previous year.

The growth of the resident population in official statistics was mainly due to the growth of the household population, with the resident household population growing by 4.6%, accounting for 34.9% of the resident population, and the resident non-household population growing by 3.6%, accounting for 65.1% of the proportion.

Shenzhen's industrial restructuring, elimination of low-end industries, coupled with housing prices and higher rental costs, the proportion of the real population out of the first-tier cities in the first tier, positive and negative superimposed on the more visible mobile population out of the more, the most out of the flow of the population is the flow of Dongguan.

The decrease in the real population of Shenzhen is also reflected from the side of the short-term loss of the manufacturing industry in Shenzhen, from the third quarter of 2019, Shenzhen's economic growth rate slowed sharply visible. But in the long run, the optimization of the industrial structure, more will attract high-end talent gathering, high-end manufacturing and advanced manufacturing will get more long-term development, in short, Shenzhen tomorrow will be better.

To answer the question of whether there will be more or less people in Shenzhen in the future, what will happen in the future, we need to know how Shenzhen was in history!

Historically, Shenzhen was a place where gold diggers gathered, and this is so because Shenzhen's history is related to the transfer of industries from Hong Kong, and to the boom in Shenzhen's cell phone and electronics industries. I worked and worked in Shenzhen during the two decades when these industries were booming, and I y felt the legend of Shenzhen!

Let's take a few analogies:

01 years, I do battery factory supervisor, there is a team leader below, very unreliable, every day, ganging up, I warned him many times after he did not hesitate to fire his squid. Later, he borrowed 50,000 dollars from his family to make mp3, only after a year, he drove a Jetta back to the factory to show off. More than a year to earn two or three hundred thousand (at that time, the supervisor of the monthly income of about 2500).

In 2008, the global financial crisis, and my boss from the battery finished product transition white brand cell phone (cottage), a year, from the battery to the transformation of cell phones, and then to do the monthly 100,000 units. At that time, g-five a company, originally to our company OEM assembly, and then do a year 5 billion turnover.

12 years, I and a few friends opened a cell phone company, in a program to do the cooperation of friends, this friend specializes in program and outsourcing, basically a year in Longhua to buy a suite (at that time the price of housing in the 20,000, a suite of 100 square meters counted more than 2 million), has lasted a few years know that there are five or six suites.

And Shenzhen is engaged in the cell phone industry and supporting employees about five hundred thousand people, and only in Huaqiang North daily in and out of the flow of people in the five hundred thousand people. At present, Shenzhen has entered a period of adjustment of industrial transformation, typical features, is my original circle of friends have been gradually withdrawn from the cell phone industry transition to other industries, some do electronic cigarettes, some do Bluetooth headset, some directly to do the Amazon electricity supplier, but from the point of view of the cell phone industry, basically has been declining, and there are not a few people to insist on doing it or to be able to do it in this industry.

And from the small and medium-sized enterprises in Shenzhen, the original cell phone industry, more people transformed to do trade, rather than the original industry upstream or midstream or supporting, more towards the periphery and downstream trade - skipped the factory, do trade, buy goods to sell.

And now in Qianhai, for example, the original asset management company model, private equity model and p2p industry have a large number of closure of the exit and be regulated, a large number of commercial and residential buildings and office space in Qianhai vacant, my friend has a floor of office space in Qianhai, from the beginning of the 17th has been vacant for a few years of time, did not collect rents - original In 15-16 years, the rent collected was around 120,000 per month!

And from the perspective of my friends doing battery and cell phone factories, basically can't hold on at the moment, closing down and quitting, transitioning to other industries or trade in large numbers, and maintaining increasingly difficult.

From the information I've received, the current Shenzhen and my impression of the 14 years before the Shenzhen related industry prosperity gap is huge, and even have a depression and shrinkage of the signal. This is mainly due to the continued surge in housing prices in Shenzhen, the continued growth in labor costs, and the significant shrinkage of the cell phone industry and electronics industry that Shenzhen relies on for its survival, resulting in Shenzhen's inherent industrial transformation and restructuring not being completed, and the lack of new industries and opportunities to replace the original ones.

However, the prosperous time I experienced in Shenzhen, behind the industry and supporting the development and prosperity, which brings great social prosperity and opportunities for the development of the current point of view, has not yet seen the direction of the transition and success, in time, if the transition is successful, the direction of the clear, the history, such as my friends and I, and the relevant industry practitioners or will return to Shenzhen! --In my own experience, the days after leaving Shenzhen are very difficult:

Not only is there no industry on the mainland, not only is there no environment, there are no opportunities, there are no well-developed support and industry practitioners, and there is no such business atmosphere. Life is simple and boring. If there is another industrial opportunity, another investment opportunity, we people will definitely return to Shenzhen with the wealth accumulated in history to look for gold - because there is no opportunity at all in other cities, there is no industrial support and enough space for industry, not to mention the wealth effect.

What I am talking about is only known and felt by those who have been in Shenzhen, especially those who have felt it in Shenzhen and then returned to the mainland!

It should be less and less, ten years ago, Shenzhen and then the edge of the village are like a pedestrian street, crowded, and now only in the holidays in the specific places over there are crowded, remote are very cold, more and more metropolitan, can not accommodate the bottom of the labor force, most of the industry are relocated and dispersed to the inland of the many places, the dream of Shenzhen is no longer in the bottom of the labor force dream,

Shenzhen this side of the people are getting less and less, I do physical stores in Songgang since 17 years, people less than a year, business is getting harder and harder to do, around the small factories to move to the direction of Dongguan Huizhou, I am also ready to look at the two years Dongguan Huizhou there is no development to go to that side of the development, or go back home to develop this side of the rent is expensive but also what to drink tea fee, for the store for the small store to be 100,000 8 million to drink tea fee, to die ah! This is why I moved away from the original small store

The population of Shenzhen in the end is more and more or less there are two different statistical channels, one is the official statistics data, and one is the actual population data.

From the official statistics, Shenzhen's population figures are actually growing.

According to the relevant data from the Shenzhen Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of 2018, the resident population of Shenzhen was 13,026,600 people, an increase of 498,300 people from the end of the previous year. Among them, the resident household population was 4,547,700, an increase of 4.6%, accounting for 34.9% of the proportion of the resident population; the resident non-household population was 8,479,700, an increase of 3.6%, accounting for 65.1% of the proportion. The actual population distribution of each district is as follows:

From the official statistics of Shenzhen, the population growth rate of Shenzhen is still relatively fast, and the reason why the population growth rate of Shenzhen is relatively fast is mainly due to the growth rate of the household population, for example, in 2018, including the household population growth rate of the four districts, Longgang, Longhua, Pingshan, Guangming, have all reached more than 10%, of which Longhua's population growth rate Even reached 16.8%, Shenzhen has thus become one of the major cities in the country with the highest household population growth rate in 2018.

Of course, in addition to the population data from the Bureau of Statistics, we can also deduce the population growth rate of Shenzhen from two other data.

The first data is the number of kindergarten students, as of 2018, the number of kindergarten students in Shenzhen has reached 530,000, the number of kindergarten students exceeded the number of kindergarten students in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities, and has become the largest number of kindergarten students in the original is a city.

The 2nd data is the number of social security contributions. According to the data released by the Shenzhen Municipal Social Security Bureau, at the end of 2014, the number of health insurance participants in Shenzhen was 11,578,300 (of which the number of people participating in employee health insurance was 1,041,600, and the number of urban residents enrolled in health insurance was 1,536,700), but at the end of 2017, the number of participants in Shenzhen has increased to 14,669,200 people (of which the number of employees in health insurance was 11,510,100 people, an increase of 14.6% compared to 2014; the number of urban residents' medical insurance participants was 2,451,000 people, an increase of 59.5% compared to 2014).

From the above figures, we can see that the resident population of Shenzhen has actually been increasing, but why do so many people feel that there are fewer and fewer people in Shenzhen now? This mainly involves a question of the actual management of the population.

From the perspective of the actual managed population, Shenzhen's population is decreasing.

The actual managed population and the resident population are two different concepts. The resident population is the population that lives in the city for a long period of time, while the actual managed population includes the resident population as well as the temporary population, which consists of people who have lived in the city for less than half a year or who have been in transit for a short period of time.

Although Shenzhen's officially announced resident population is just over 13 million, from other statistical calibers, the current actual managed population in Shenzhen is at least 22 million. Previously, the Guangdong Mobile Big Data Application Innovation Center had released a "mobile big data-based demographic research report on Shenzhen", which used mobile big data to conduct demographic statistics on Shenzhen, and the results of the statistics showed that, as of 2017, the daily resident population of Shenzhen was roughly between 22 million and 23 million.

In addition to this, in 2015, Shenzhen once had an organization to count the number of houses in Shenzhen, as of 2015, the total **** in Shenzhen has 600,000 houses, the actual number of registered population is more than 16.5 million, and if you count those who live in a short period of time without being registered, the actual population is at least more than 20 million.

So all along the actual managed population of Shenzhen is about 8 million more than the officially announced resident population of Shenzhen.

And in the last year or two, the reason why the official statistics of the resident population of Shenzhen has been growing, and we feel that the population of Shenzhen has decreased a lot, in fact, is that these mobile population has decreased significantly.

In recent years, as Shenzhen continues to adjust its industrial structure, many low-end industries are gradually eliminated, coupled with rising housing prices and rental costs, the production costs of enterprises are getting higher and higher, the cost of living for employees is also getting higher and higher, and there are many factories in Shenzhen are relocated to Dongguan, Huizhou, or Zhongshan Jiangmen and other areas, for example, the most typical example is the Huawei terminals, which have moved to Songshan Lake in Dongguan. Moved to Dongguan Songshan Lake. A large number of enterprises moved out of the direct result of the factory is less and less, corresponding to the workers are also less and less.

What will be the impact on Shenzhen as the actual population under management decreases? In what direction will Shenzhen develop?

We all know that in the past few decades, China's economy has made remarkable achievements, which has a very important reason is the demographic dividend, the demographic dividend is not only for the development of China's socio-economic cheap labor as well as intellectual support, but also a large number of people have also created a huge consumer market.

It can be seen that the population has a great positive effect on the development of the economy. So for Shenzhen, what kind of direction will it go in when the actual population under management decreases?

First of all, in the short term, the reduction of the population will have a certain impact on Shenzhen, because the reduction of the population does not only represent a decrease in population data, more critical is with the population loss of manufacturing industry, the loss of population is only the most direct reflection of the loss of manufacturing industry. This can be seen in the third quarter of 2019, Shenzhen's economic growth rate slowed sharply.

Secondly, from a long-term perspective, the reduction of the mobile population in Shenzhen will not have much impact, although the actual management of the population of Shenzhen is reduced, but the resident population of Shenzhen is actually increasing every year, and the attractiveness of the population is still at the forefront of the country's position, and the new population are basically some relatively high-end talents, these talents to Shenzhen. The adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure, to create a high-tech as the main body of the advanced manufacturing industry is a great help.

So on the whole, although in the short term the actual management of the population of Shenzhen will be reduced so that Shenzhen experienced similar to the 2008 kind of pain period, but the development of Shenzhen's backbone is still very sufficient, especially in some of the high-end manufacturing industry as well as advanced manufacturing industry, Shenzhen is still in the forefront of the position of the country. Maybe now Shenzhen eliminated a lot of backward production capacity in the short term will have a great impact on the GDP, but in the long term, I think this adjustment is more conducive to the Shenzhen economy to maintain a sustained and healthy development.

To answer you very positively, there are fewer and fewer people in Shenzhen, and I've read several responses that say there are more and more, and I don't know where this response comes from. Now a lot of labor-intensive factories moved out of Shenzhen, because in terms of enterprises, the cost of employment in Shenzhen is higher than elsewhere, the rent is expensive, the cost of materials are higher. In terms of workers. Shenzhen's prices are high, the rent is expensive, in the past, two people can spend three hundreds to rent a single room, now six or seven hundred. The cost of all aspects of the calculation is very high. A month of work only four or five thousand, rent, living expenses, but also to support the family, simply can not save money, many people choose to work elsewhere. One of the most obvious signs that there are fewer people is the streets outside Guanwai, where the flow of people is much less. In the past, there were basically no empty rental properties, but now there are rentals everywhere, and there are commissions for introducing tenants! The streets used to be jammed with people on Sundays, but now it's no different from normal. There are also a lot of busy streets, not many stores can do good business. It used to be hard to find a store. Now everywhere is the transfer! Such a situation there are actually people who say that the population of Shenzhen is more than before?

Although the official statistics say that the population is not less, but from our living environment and the surrounding shopping malls and roads, the population density is not as high as before. People are relocating solo to what was formerly offshore. With industrial upgrades, rising rents, and better employment packages on the mainland, many people are also going back to their hometowns for development.

The vast majority of people in Shenzhen can't afford to buy a house, but can only rent a house to live in, however, the rise of long term rental apartments and the original landlord's inertia of the annual incremental rent of the thinking. The pressure on the lives of wage earners is increasing year by year. Before the old factory buildings, dormitories, peasant houses, demolition of demolition, renovation of renovation. The feeling of being forced to raise the level of consumption is a little bit of a feeling of being rich and beautiful.

Let's put it this way: three months ago, I drove from Longgang to Nanshan to work at 7 o'clock. I can leave at 7:40 and get to Nanshan at 8:30 or so. The number of people is so high that you can think for yourself

From the published data, Shenzhen's population is getting bigger and bigger. Generally speaking, the population is divided into household and resident population, no need to explain I believe we all understand. For such a developed first-tier city as Shenzhen, the household population to measure how much of its population is not objective, because Shenzhen's population attraction is too strong, attracting millions of foreigners every year, as of 2018, Shenzhen's household population is only 4,547,000, but the resident population is as high as 13,020,000, which is more than 8 million higher than the household population, so every year the Spring Festival, we go home to the country, and then Shenzhen becomes a "city", which is a "city" and a "city". Shenzhen has become an "empty city"! It's not that there is no one, just less than half of the people, become depressed. Currently, the annual resident population of Shenzhen is growing at a rate of four to five hundred thousand, and the population increase ranks first among cities in the country.

But you may feel that the population of Shenzhen seems to be less? In fact, there is another data is the actual management of the population! The resident population refers to those who are often at home throughout the year or live at home for more than 6 months, which means that those who stay in Shenzhen for less than half a year are not considered to be the resident population. Due to Shenzhen's developed economy, the population flow is very large, so its actual managed population is more than the resident population, more than 20 million, because in recent years, Shenzhen's actual managed population tends to be saturated or declined, coupled with the rise of e-commerce, take-away industry, which makes a lot of people do not need to leave the house to shop, eat, and therefore lead to less people on the street, giving people the impression that the population of Shenzhen is getting smaller and smaller.

As for what tomorrow holds for Shenzhen? It can be said to be bright! This year, Shenzhen's economic growth has slowed down, many people speculate that it is going to decline, in fact, this voice has never been, in more than a decade ago, a "Shenzhen, you are abandoned by whom" article has caused a sensation, but so far, Shenzhen has not been abandoned, but instead, stronger and stronger. The fact that economic development encounters a bottleneck in the short term does not mean that it will fall flat on its face in the future, and a city cannot maintain a high rate of growth forever. At present, the construction of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area is in full swing, and Shenzhen has been given the construction of the first demonstration zone of socialism with Chinese characteristics, to create a global benchmark city, so how can the development prospects of such a city be bad?