65438+February 65438+June, a real estate in Longhua, Shenzhen, asking for 50,000-80,000 yuan/square meter, was actually a "CD" that day.
Is the "Japanese CD" in Shenzhen a hype? Is there a bubble in Shenzhen property market? What is the price of "the highest growth rate in the world"? Is the "fever" of property prices "virtual high" or "real high"? Is Shenzhen enough to support such high property prices? Will Shenzhen property prices surpass Hong Kong? What kind of chain reaction will high property prices bring? With such a high growth rate of property prices, will Shenzhen become an "uninhabitable" city? Why is Beishangguang not as good as Shenzhen? Will Guangzhou and other Pearl River Delta cities follow in Shenzhen's footsteps and take off? ……
A series of problems, even the industry in other places can't understand, let alone the citizens in it.
Is "Japanese CD" hype?
A real estate in Shenzhen165438+1October 7 set four new records: the number of buyers reached a new high; Projects with the largest number of people robbing houses in recent 7 years; In the past two years, the projects with the most houses were launched on the opening day; At the same time, it is also the project that sells the most houses on the opening day.
This property with an average price of 43,000 yuan/square meter is located in Longhua, about 25 kilometers away from Luohu Railway Station, and you need to transfer to 18 subway station. If we insist on comparison, Longhua is to Shenzhen, or equivalent to Huadu is to Guangzhou. If this price is in Huadu, it is estimated that half of Guangzhou people think that the property market is crazy, but Shenzhen people are still very calm.
In the past two days, another news has opened people's eyes. The topic is: "Shenzhen Longhua new house broke 80 thousand, Fuyong broke 40 thousand, good time to buy a house!" It's only been 40 days. I'm sorry, Longhua's 40,000 CDs are considered by the industry to be a thing of the past. " Today 13: 00 opened, and the site 1500 people were full. This is the rhythm of forcing Shenzhen people to buy a house in Dongguan. This is Longhua. Believe it or not, it opened for more than 50,000 yuan for the first time and broke 80,000 yuan for the second time. I dare not look straight ... "Many Shenzhen people's circle of friends was screened by such a live description that day.
Looking at Shenzhen Property Market from Big Data
On the one hand, the Shenzhen property market is boiling, and on the other hand, it is an analysis of "only recognizing data".
The person in charge of a real estate company said that "daylight" is a real sale, not a developer hype; Moreover, because the overall supply of housing in Shenzhen is small, the price of a real estate can easily affect the overall situation, so the statistics of property prices in Shenzhen are unique and incomparable with those in Beishangguang. "The opening of a real estate can raise or lower the average price of Shenzhen in that month, because there may only be such a plate for sale in a month." This phenomenon can't be found in Beishangguang.
Whether "Japanese CD" is a common phenomenon or not, "just need" is a drop in the bucket in Shenzhen!
According to the statistics of Shenzhen Bureau of Statistics, in 20 14 years, the permanent population of Shenzhen has reached 10778900. In the same period, the permanent residents of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou were 2 1.5 1.6 million, 24.2568 million and 1.308 million respectively, which were 2 times, 2.25 times and 1.2 times that of Shenzhen respectively. Yu said that the area of Shenzhen is only 1.900 square kilometers, which is one eighth of that of Beijing, one third of that of Shanghai and one quarter of that of Guangzhou. Tens of millions of people are crowded on this 1900 square kilometer land, and the limited land supply and the strong housing demand are a pair of contradictions.
According to Wang Feng, director of Shenzhen Real Estate Research Center and expert in real estate market regulation and decision-making of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the potential demand for housing in Shenzhen is the strongest in China, because it "almost has the highest population density in the world".
At present, the housing ownership rate of Shenzhen's 4 million registered population exceeds 70%. However, including the foreign population and the permanent population, the housing ownership rate was suddenly diluted to 29%. Compared with Guangzhou, the housing ownership rate is close to 50%.
Therefore, in the eyes of almost all people in the industry in Shenzhen, as long as there is a house, there is no shortage of market in Shenzhen-relevant data show that the proportion of people (25-44 years old) who buy houses in Shenzhen is 50.8%, much higher than that in Beijing (35.2%), Shanghai (29.6%) and Guangzhou (39.9%).
"The population of Shenzhen keeps pouring in. They are all young people who come here to start businesses. Falling in love, getting married and having children are all demands for a house! Shenzhen needs at least 1.7 million houses. According to the current supply of 60,000-70,000 houses per year, how many years do you think there is room for real estate development in Shenzhen? " Experts assert that others have gone through "golden decade" in real estate, and now it is "Silver Decade", followed by "Diamond Decade" in Shenzhen!
Affordable housing lags far behind demand.
In addition to the strong demand of a large number of people, from the perspective of source land supply, the residential land publicly sold through "bidding, auction and hanging" has dropped sharply in the past two years.
In 2007-20 10, the average construction area of residential land publicly sold in Shenzhen was 950,000 square meters per year; By 20 13, only three residential land will be sold. In 2065438+2004, there were 33 cases of land transfer, including 8 cases of commercial land, and the rest were industrial land or new industrial land, with no residential land.
In fact, in 20 1 1 year, the Shenzhen Municipal Government Gazette published the Shenzhen Housing Security Development Plan (2011-20 15). By 2015, Shenzhen plans to raise affordable housing. In that year, Shenzhen only provided 3 1 144 sets of affordable housing, and in 20 14, 30,982 sets were built, exceeding the historical record.
The urban area is small and the residential land is small, so the construction of affordable housing can't keep up with the demand. No wonder commercial housing is getting more and more expensive.
(The above answers were published on 20 15- 12-22. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )
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