Recently, there is an economic god said a thing, let the partners look at the hand after the cold sweat straight, he said that now there is no real estate bubble, so do not do to real estate bubble thing.

How did he come to this conclusion? Because every year, 70 city prices only rose 1% so a drop, but you guys guys income every year but rose 6%, so from this ratio, no problem.

The god's name is Fan, he is an economic expert, the famous six wallet theory is what he proposed. The six wallets are the six wallets of the parents, grandparents, and grandparents of both men and women who put together the money to buy a house.

As for whether there is a real estate bubble this thing, I believe that needless to say, partners know, and just a few days ago, our economic authoritative publication Economic Daily News also said, now the intention of the top is very clear, is to use macro means to slowly squeeze out the bubble.

Although many small partners must have greeted Fan experts in their hearts, but many small partners feel in their hearts is, obviously know that house prices are rising fast, there is no way to specifically say that this situation, today this article will be a good and talk about the matter of house prices.

In order to facilitate the discussion of this issue, try to use some of the actual data with the partners to say the reality of the situation, after all, only say the results without specific data, is in the hooligan.

Let's take the year 2000 as an anchor point and start looking at home prices in various places.

In 2000, Shanghai's house price was 3326 yuan per square meter, and at that time, you could also enter the household registration, for tax rebates, and in 2020, Shanghai's house price reached 60,000 yuan per square meter.

In 2000, the price in Shenzhen was 5,412 yuan per square meter, and by 2020, the average price had reached 87,957 yuan per square meter.

With these two places to see, Shanghai within 20 years rose 18 times, an average of about 15.5% per year, Shenzhen 20 years is also up 16.25 times, the same annual average of 15%, the two places growth rate is about the same.

Meaning that no matter what you do, it's far less profitable to invest in real estate.

Many of our partners said, this is a matter of the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, there is no point, so let's take a look at the second-tier city of Nanning, Guangxi.

Nanning in 2000 when about a square meter of 2300 yuan, to 2020 when the price of 12,491 yuan per square meter, but also up about 5 times, especially in 15 years to 20 years between the whole per square meter rose more than 5000 yuan.

Try to ask, how many 2015 monthly salary of 4000 Nanning boy, can in 2020 monthly salary of 12491 yuan?

It is important to know that Nanning's national ranking is around 30, so it is still relatively representative of the significance of the country, anyway, the country a **** there are more than 600 cities, and I do not know that this economic expert looking for 70 cities is that a few, it is estimated that they are not all in the Hegang of these cities to extract the data.

But all in all, the average growth rate of house prices is certainly much more than 1%, just that the growth rate has declined in the past few months because the top has swung the hammer on real estate.

At this point, this Dr. Economist is taking short-term events and commenting on long-term facts, which is a bit of a one-leaf wonder, and we guys are not to be fooled.

Then we again from the growth of the base of this dimension to see, the growth of housing prices, say just Shanghai, if it is 100 square meters of house total price of 6 million, then this year rose 1% is 60,000 yuan.

And the current average monthly salary in Shanghai is about 7,000 yuan, even if the rise of 6% is about 420 yuan, a year more income of 5040 yuan.

Try to ask, this more income of 5040 yuan and 60,000 yuan how to compare, even if it is 6 wallets, also a *** only 30,000 yuan, even if 6 wallets can afford to buy, but also to worry about, once one of the wallets have a problem, then that means that to cut off the mortgage, the risk of who can afford it?

There is also a dimension, that is, inflation, in human terms is price increases, just ask you to buy a house is not going to be immortal, do not eat, do not drink, do not go to the toilet, so in the purchase of a house at the same time naturally also have to put the price increases to subtract, how to subtract it?

That is, I often mentioned in the article head of the inflation index CPI, we have been here in the CPI has been very well controlled, probably in the 2.5% or so, so although the wage rose 6%, after subtracting the actual rate of increase is 3.5% or so,

And according to the reasoning, this 2.5% should also be added in the real estate that, after all, reinforced concrete and labor, these will also be inflation, but due to the base is too large, all at once, and the price of the house will be reduced to the same level. But because the base is too large, all of a sudden rose hundreds of thousands of dollars, put up will be scared to death of small partners, so it is better to pretend not to see it.

So all in all, in the eyes of this expert, an ordinary person's life, is really miserable.

A lifetime of serious hard work, the results of 1/2 of the money to the real estate and banks and soil wealth, 1/4 to the landlord before buying a house, 1/8 of the money to raise a child, 1/16 of the money to solve their own food, drink, pulling and spreading, leaving the last little bit of money to the social security, the last social security delayed, and he has not yet received a few years on the hiccups.

Probably this is the perfect society in the mind of Fan experts.

And the real question behind this information is, since the prices of first-tier, second-tier, and even third-tier houses are now so high, will they continue to rise?

In saying that housing prices will not fall, we need to know a thing, that is, whether something is worth money, depending on its financial attributes, simply put, everyone likes it all want to disk it, then the price will naturally become higher.

So why would everyone like to dish it out in a big city house?

We need to know a concept, is the real estate said the concept of growth poles, what does it mean? Simply put, if you look at the economic flow as a magnetic field, then the source of this magnetic field can be said to be a growth pole.

With this concept, we will look at the various local growth poles, first of all, look at the Yangtze River Delta region, it is how to create a growth pole.

Shanghai has been our financial center since a long time ago, and a lot of foreign capital and capital from all over the world has always been like in that place, since there is money, then we need a lot of people to do all kinds of things about finance, such as stock trading, and all kinds of insurance business, as well as communication with foreign businessmen and so on, and all of these things need a lot of people to deal with, and that's what the city of Shanghai's growth pole.

Then there is money, and naturally it has to be about how to use it.

So Shanghai's neighboring Jiangsu can use Shanghai's funds to start engaging in the entity manufacturing, and Zhejiang began to use the money to start engaging in the digital economy, Ningbo to engage in maritime logistics, and so on, so the formation of the Yangtze River Delta's growth pole.

Then this growth pole will bring a series of economic benefits to the surrounding area, which means that you are in this place is very easy to make money, and even run a takeaway can earn 10,000 dollars this reason.

Let's say you do plumbing work for someone in your hometown, a few dozen dollars a day, but if you go to the Yangtze River Delta region, a few hundred dollars a day, because of the overall income level of that place, do it yourself and change it is not as good as spending some money to find someone to do it, and of course, they are not necessarily doing a good job, after all, the professionals do professional things.

There is another reason is time, if in order to engage in plumbing and electricity to spend a few hours, then it is better to spend this time on their own work, this money will come back in a flash.

Then there is a growth pole driven after the house prices naturally up, after all, the average income level is high, everyone has money after the house prices will naturally rise.

This is the Yangtze River Delta region, and the Pearl River Delta is the same reason, through Hong Kong's financial economy from Shenzhen Zhuhai and other access, and then the entire Pearl River Delta region began to do through the manufacturing industry, as well as the port logistics and so on, through the development of this growth pole.

This is the big one, and the growth pole of each province is the provincial capital, generally the financial center is placed in the head of the provincial capital, and then the following cities through a variety of industrial development, so as long as there is this thinking and then look at the price of housing is high or low, basically eight or nine.

The second is the continuous inflow of population.

Before talking about this, let's talk about the recent Zhang students fire up, he just the usual rural life into a short video, a lot of small friends are curious to see, but to know, this video if 20 years ago is estimated that not many people are interested in his video.

Because at that time most people were still in the countryside, the rural population accounted for 80% of the population, everyone's life is like that, who would go to see this video?

But now it's different, I checked and now there are more than 900 million people living in towns and cities, which is more than 64% of the country's total population.

The blogger grew up in the rural countryside, and was basically indifferent to this video, but now many of the little ones who grew up in the city have a strong curiosity about rural life, so driven by curiosity they all went to see what's going on in the countryside, and it caught fire.

Then the situation hidden behind this thing is that more and more rural people are putting down roots in the city. Take the poor family I helped, he and many of the village head of the poor family, basically through the top of the relocation policy to the city, the family's children also in the city to go to high school.

So now a lot of villages, previously built small schools basically no students, many teachers are not, the reason is that a lot of students are running to the town head to school, and the countryside house is the same, basically all the old man and old lady, almost more than half of the house is empty in the where, but also can not be sold.

And these situations is actually, in the village head if you get into college, 90% will be in the big city roots, and if the lucky or capable people can seize the above said growth pole of the momentum, basically in the first-tier cities to buy a house.

And the young people in the village have to go to the county loan to buy a house, because if the age to get married, there is no set of houses in the county, the probability of not finding the other half, and the county head of the rich, will go to the city head or the suburbs to buy a set of houses to settle down, and the city head of the city basically run to the head of the provincial head to get a house.

After these decades of evolution of generations, the population are slowly crowded into the head of the city, the first-tier cities to retain the head of the national talent, the big cities to retain the local rich, and the local to retain the head of the village of young people.

There is a data, that is, now the average age of head workers in the city reached more than 30 years old, the actual situation is that the young people over the years in the reduction, but the population of the first tier of big cities is still increasing, the provincial population of provincial cities is also increasing, to the level of the county, the population of some counties have become more, and some counties have reduced the population, but the only thing that remains unchanged is that the village head of the population is reduced, and even a lot of villages are completely unoccupied. The only thing that has not changed is that the villages have been depopulated, and many of them are completely empty.

In short, the population just keeps going up from the bottom to the top, and when people come, they naturally need to buy a house, and there are just so many of them, so the price is up.

Two days ago, the central mom cut the quasi, the market more than 1.2 trillion, then you know if you know the concept of growth poles know, these money will basically stay in the first tier of big cities, why?

Just said, financial centers are generally in those places, and manufacturing industries are also basically there, which means that that place is the most in need of money, and how does this money flow out? A lot of partners know that the currency overshooting, but few people know how this money is sent to the hands of individuals.

The money is generally, a variety of enterprises from the bank borrowed, and then flow into the market, then it means that the more valuable assets, the easier it is to borrow this kind of super issued money, after all, and not what ah three ah four casually with the bank to borrow money.

And the bank in order to prevent you from borrowing money to run away, generally let you take out collateral, this collateral is not the factory building is the owner of the personal residence of the house, then who's house is worth money, you can get more money from the bank.

In short, this part of the release of a large part of the money will flow into the first-tier cities, and since the inflow of the first-tier cities, more or less will be part of the entry into the real estate, which will push up the first-tier cities of the assets.

And just did not say it, the rich will flow, let's say, you opened a brick factory in the place, making money, then what will do? They eat, drink, and spread no way to spend so much money, naturally, they will think of their own house in the place to sell, and then add some money to buy a suite in the provincial capital.

Then the situation is very clear, the flow of population from bottom to top, the house will also be to the bottom to empty out, the formation of a first-tier cities piled up the situation, every year with the change of the trend means that there will be a new rich, then the first line of the house naturally not enough.

But it also means that although the first-line up, and just said, a lot of places on the house will not have this so-called investment properties, the price will be smooth, and no one will be in a hurry to buy a house, renting to live with no problem, which means that the house does not increase the price of the so-called just demand.

But the process is very painful, why? Because the big data also shows that most of us are the class of housing, the decline in housing prices will make a lot of people depressed, take Nanning, know a few intermediaries have been changed, the city head of the price of many places are falling, but also a few places to rise in price, then a lot of the class of housing suffering to death, and a few friends without a house is to gloat, living in a rented house to laugh.

Now the real state of affairs is that the first line of the house is particularly expensive, luxury large disk can let the partners jaw-dropping beyond the scope of their own thinking, but the rest of the world will not have eyes, young people do not need to buy, as long as the price of the house does not go up like crazy, the partners are not panicked, and slowly waiting.

In short, the village head of the empty house will be more and more, there is no good industry in the city will be a large number of people out of the city, in addition to a small number of growth poles on the city, a lot of urban housing prices will be due to the investment attribute is knocked out, slowly the bubble will be squeezed out, which will make it easier for the little ones. And the city at the center of the growth pole will continue to expand, after all, outflow of all the money will also boost its development.

After reading this article, the little guys should have a number in mind.

Today said more, I hope you can take your time to read it.

Above, mutual encouragement!