When the public can't understand a company's business model, it spawns two extreme judgments: either great or low, and the highly valued and negatively tainted DDT is on the cognitive fault line of that dichotomy.

The capital smokescreen around DDT

The reason why Uber with a valuation of $60 billion, Xiaomi with $45 billion, DDT with $25 billion, and the new Meida with $18 billion are not active in IPOs is that, as Mr. Ren said, he does not want to bear the responsibility to investors too early and lose the opportunity to explore no man's land. Explore the opportunity of no man's land", or may be Lao Ganma's "adhere to the continuous polishing of the product, to do specialization", but more importantly, they can get the continuous blood transfusion of PE, the 2012 U.S. JOBS Act liberalized a number of financing restrictions, in essence, to encourage startups to maintain a long term privatization, and the recent revelation of DDT's financing documents does a disservice to that ability, which will naturally be debunked.

China's O2O has always interpreted success in terms of traffic, users and share rather than profit, and so has Xinmeida, and so has DDT, which relies on a large number of investments to continue to pull, which is certainly not a healthy business model in the traditional sense, but the penetration rate of China's mobile travel market is less than 1%, and DDT's high valuation is supported by high-cost GMV, so perhaps when it gets the traffic and users to realize the day, this "Waiting for Golgotha" is not a good business model, but it is a good business model. One day, this "waiting for Godot" story in the primary market quite someone to pay the bill, in the secondary market on the extreme test of investor patience, Cheng Wei and Liu Qing is very clear about this.

So it's not hard to answer whether it's in a small circle for a two-hour management pitch or to accept public questioning, not to mention that behind DDT there are savvy Internet investors like Tencent and Ali. When the drop and fast merger, they will be from the strategic investor unshackled for financial investors, easy to hide in the "BAT better able to find the value of the potential" behind a small amount of money + quotes to pry more followers, such as Apple, and then Ping An of China, Shanghai Life and other capital armies.

Drop and Uber wrapped a large number of investors to form a complex interest **** the same body, the competition is bound to be fierce, Uber recently got the Saudi public **** fund of 3.5 billion, the valuation soared to 62.5 billion, indirectly illustrating the effect of the drop through the injection of Lyft to restrain Uber, worsening its international revenues is not very effective, the disadvantage of the drop lies in:

1, its The main body of the operation - the Cayman Islands small orange fast wisdom is still in line with the United States GAAP accounting laws of the VIE structure, that is, even if the eventual unraveling can only choose the overseas IPO, and in the international capital market, drops have to face the Uber "before me, *** enjoyment of the economy is nothing," brand

2, drops previously announced special fast car daily turnover orders broken ten million, more than the United States and Japan's total mobile travel orders 5 times, this advantage is not reflected in the valuation, as for the reasons to be analyzed;

3, drops shouted "counterattack on the United States" slogan, GMV is basically from the Chinese market, although it and millet as desperately expanding the product line, but also the Chinese market, and the Chinese market. Although it and millet as desperately expanding product lines, but can support the high valuation of the market to give the answer.

Products to burn the desert again decline three exhaustion

Drop's product strategy has always been to set fire to the desert, trying to extend the fire from the taxi field to every corner of the travel, but in all the immediate needs of the scene burned out, the droplets can not help but drumming, and then decline three exhaustion. DDT in some secondary battlefield forcing some startups eclipsed, turning some other into Liu Qing's boudoir, but the large travel market is not a lack of hot money, such as koala buses, micro carpooling, although the collapse, dubu buses still got the B round of financing of 100 million, e DaiDaodi also through the cooperation of the industry to stubbornly resist.

In the main battlefield of dedicated and carpooling, DDT hasn't been able to beat their U.S. rivals like their Chinese Internet predecessors. Uber, despite all the watery conditions, is still standing firm in the two core scenarios of dedicated and carpooling, with Shenzhou Dedicated Car controlling the business market, and eDrive, which is suspected of clearing inventory and selling members for LeTV, has atypically survived.

Drop itself, however, as millet in the process of rapid coverage of the mobile ecological process lost, drops draw a beautiful high growth curve is in August 2014, after the 3.1 version of the car on-line, to the beginning of 2015 on the obvious slowdown, May on-line chauffeured car and hitchhiking effect is not great, fast car although the drop regained the growth, but worsened the cost structure.

Since April last year, the bus and chartered buses into the bus, in addition to the dismal situation of the P2P car rental, the last piece of the jigsaw puzzle of the whole platform of the droplet travel has been made up, and sealing the pen to hand over the paper of the droplet but found that the product structure is not initially planned to be:

Pressing the previously disclosed documents, Cheng Wei envisioned that in 2020, the ratio of the droplet's various business sections of the GMV should be as follows: taxi accounted for 5%, dedicated Express 20%, 10% carpooling, 15% bus, 20% driver side, the rest is other. But the current actual situation deviates from the principle of balanced output of each product line, complementing each other. Special fast car broken ten million orders 70% from the fast car, and devour the subsidized fast car to create GMV cost is too high, the passenger unit price is too low, and can not support the benign financial model of the drop.

In the Ministry of Transportation's new policy on private cars, people only pay attention to the provisions that do not allow private cars to operate, ignoring the provisions of the network car tariffs should be higher than the cab pricing 50%. Since May last year, the sweet smile of Chi-Ling and the Slogan of "take a taxi to walk the dog" have exposed the positioning of the express car, which will pull down the car to the cab competition, no matter how the new policy is modified, it is doomed to have no room for survival.

Drop has made the same mistake as millet, their brand foundation is too fragile, lack of premium ability, too dependent on the competitiveness of low-priced products, too much emphasis on barbaric growth and ignored the endogenous growth of their friendship with the users of the boat said to turn over on the flip side, the media by praising a change to sing the downfall of the media, but also just a matter of concern. DDT need to get rid of the past price for volume, accumulation of small victory for the big victory strategy, so as not to miss the window period of brand reengineering and service upgrading, can not let the fast car to become the Achilles' heel of the mud-footed giant.

Big data for GR breakthrough?

CHENG Wei in the product expansion after the end of the offer of the receiver is big data, drops from the mature business model is still a breath away, on the one hand, it is bleeding GMV a little creepy, on the other hand, the public opinion base is not enough to influence the regulatory level. Cheng Wei can not be like Uber in Europe and the United States to move aid public opinion against regulation, but also can not make any compromise on the product, so he chose to use the volume to do GR, drops from the travel of all platforms to the transformation of the intelligent transportation platform, the essence of the travel of the big data in the hands of the relevant departments to show their goodwill.

Drop will be injected into the official data, turned into a part of the intelligent transportation, not only show the company's image of science and technology, but also away from the accusation of disrupting the market, can be said to kill two birds with one stone. In the recently concluded big data industry summit, Cheng Wei revealed the development of the "tidal wave" traffic engine, and announced with Guiyang's intelligent transportation pilot cooperation, apparently also want to push the national. The subtext of this statement is first whitewash, then service, brain hole is not small.

Per Cheng Wei's statement, he "hope that both sides (DDT and Guiyang City) **** enjoy the data, to create the world's first government data and enterprise data fusion of intelligent transportation system, so that the people's travel is more and more convenient", so the premise of DDT big data to generate value for the intelligent transportation is that their own vehicles are able to "Legal" run up, quite bluntly implied, but in the context of most cities strictly control the operation of private cars, how to generate this value?

Secondly, although the drop will be data naked, but in the pilot cities can not get a landing solution, it can only be reduced to the heat map on the big screen and the ever-changing numbers, that is not big data, that is the advertising window.

As early as the end of 2014, beleaguered by the driver infringement of Uber has said to the Boston authorities to open up the data, promised to improve the efficiency of public transportation operations, but the mouth but not to the reality, Boston is ultimately relying on a company called Bridj, "dynamic line" (dynamic routing) to complete the commute to work. Bridj claims that the system, which anticipates 14 million data points in Boston, can deploy vehicles to demand routes in a timely manner, with an occupancy rate of more than 70 percent.

Drop spared no expense in recruiting technical bulls, ostensibly in the class Bridj-style service embedded in the public **** scene brought about by the imagination, to June renamed, covering a number of cities drop buses with intelligent labeling, in fact, but there is a dual mission to seize the high ground, but also for the special express bus business whitewash, of course, how to drive the product, how to create added value, for the time being, can not be seen.

Is internationalization a means or an end?

Drop announced that the daily orders exceeded the total amount of travel in the United States, but the valuation is only less than half of Uber, which reflects the capital market's recognition of Uber's international fundamentals, Travis Kalanick boasted that the world's 30 largest cities a year that is $1 billion in profits, especially for Drops eye, Cheng Wei turned to overseas expansion natural and logical.

Drop has invested in three overseas travel companies, the United States Lyft, Southeast Asia GrabTaxi and India's motorcycle application Ola, the choice of capital injection of holding rather than self-built subsidiaries is of course, in order to quickly enter the local area, the former two have always been Uber's old rivals, the latter can be seen as a sniper in the emerging markets.

But whether internationalization is a means to poach Uber or a clear strategy for DDT, I'm afraid Cheng Wei himself doesn't understand. The low-priced competition that Chinese Internet companies are known for is not very effective in the relatively standardized European and American markets, and the New York and San Francisco operations of ETS have proved to be gimmicks, though DDT has gone farther.

Drop is counting on this four-cornered alliance covering half of the world's population to realize integrated operations and compete with Uber in the vast international market, but from the form of cooperation, drop members call Lyft capacity in the U.S. is to open up the API interface of the primary channels of cooperation, the publicity significance is greater than the actual role.

This is more of a demonstration than a wrestling match, DDT has no time or energy to build brand value beyond Uber in the international market, and is unlikely to be able to compress the latter's market space in a short period of time, and winning or losing is nothing more than a byproduct of the sword. travis Kalanick is exporting global profits to the Chinese market to strengthen the subsidy war, and liu yan shouted out the slogan of this year, which is the first time that DDT has been able to compete in the international market, but it is not the first time that DDT is able to compete in the international market. The company's main battlefield is the Chinese market.

What kind of DDT is successful?

DDD has a lot of halo on its head, orders approaching Taobao and Jingdong, users on the threshold of 100 million, but the secret financial situation, like maggots attached to the bones of the negative, as well as hanging on the top of the policy of the sword, so that the drop is still a symbol of the fuzzy existence. What DDT believes in is the philosophy of operation of the big and can not fall, superstitious with the volume of differentiation risk, sun orders, sun users, sun traffic, sun share, few people pay attention to the price it paid for this.

First is the service.

Drop platform focuses on maintaining the growth of supply and demand as well as the improvement of the transaction success rate, the high-speed expansion of the product line favors the efficiency of the order rather than the service experience, the most obvious is the split from the car fast car, won the share, lost the reputation.

Last year, China's service complaints exceeded commodity complaints for the first time, and data released by the Guangzhou Consumer Council at the beginning of the year showed that the network of cars has led to a surge in complaints about transportation, claiming to have 83.2 percent of the share of the C2C model of the DDT naturally with a strong Yan.

The second is profit.

Drop like a supersonic fighter, sustained large angle of climb there is a danger of stalling, can be changed in time depends on the profits of this vector engine, which is used to not according to the cost of pricing drops very difficult.

In 2014, the drip car subsidized more than 16 million U.S. dollars in the driver's end, more than 8.6 million U.S. dollars in the user's end subsidies, increased to more than 53 million and more than 74 million, respectively, in 2015, in the competitive situation only increase, it is difficult to compress.

Drop executives previously said that more than half of the country's 400 cities to break through the break-even point, but in the case of Uber continues to burn money, drops its own orders and more from the special express car, this is how to achieve puzzling.

Drop's model is in the financing-burning money-financing cycle, it has attacked almost all the travel scene, and each market segment has strong rivals, are or are yet to enter the deep-water areas such as automotive finance, test-drive car sales, second-hand cars, etc. without strong offline resources, it is absolutely difficult to subvert overnight.

In the long run, DDT's brutal expansion, sloppy operation, and high subsidies to drive GMV growth of the competition model reached its peak and cannot be replicated. Although it can still lie on the low penetration rate of China's mobile travel to enjoy incremental growth, but the industry's upward space is limited, the low-end positioning is gradually solidified, the reputation suffers from complaints, and the loss-making operation leads to too high a degree of dependence on the capital market.

So the next batch of startups represented by DDT and Xiaomi are likely to set off the first round of de-capacitation in China's Internet industry. In this wave of reshuffling, products and services that lose money to attract users will be eliminated, and the market will drive operators to return to their roots, which means that the business operation is not more than who will lose money, but who will make money.

The reason BAT has become one of the three pinnacles of China's Internet landscape is not because they can't move without killing or acquiring startups, but because they have a complete product system and a healthy business model. A great company must also be a company that makes money!

Drop's future depends on whether it can win a monopoly in the C2C market, on the direction of future policy, on its performance in the automotive derivatives market, which is much larger and more difficult to pry, but at the heart of it all is whether it can build a healthy and sustainable business model, relying only on turning itself into Yang Bairao to latch on to Huang Shiren's philosophy of financing or Guo Jingming's philosophy that prices are not determined by costs. competitive perspective, it is difficult to win the long-term favor of capital and users.

The teenage son of the old jianghu, red powder beauty sideburns spot, leaving Cheng Wei and Liu Qing's time is not much.