On July 29, a new energy car in Anyang, Henan Province, caught fire during charging
Since this summer, China's new energy cars have once again ushered in a season of frequent fires, making people feel that the probability of electric car fires is quite high. However, data from the National Regulatory Platform for New Energy Vehicles (NRPM) is contrary to our intuition: The probability of a fire in a new energy vehicle is less than half that of a traditional fuel vehicle.
On September 20, at the Global Intelligent Mobility Conference (GIMC2020) held at the Nanjing Airport International Expo Center, Sun Fengchun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, introduced the application of the new energy vehicle national regulatory platform in the field of new energy automobile safety supervision. He introduced that the probability of fire in China's new energy vehicles is 0.49 out of 10,000 in 2019, and 0.26 out of 10,000 in 2020, which is much lower than that of fuel vehicles, which is 1 to 2 out of 10,000.
Academician Sun Fengchun spoke at GIMC2020
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Seven summaries of the national platform
Sun Fengchun introduced seven summaries of new energy vehicle fire accidents found by the national regulatory platform.
Conclusion 1
The proportion of new energy vehicle fire accidents is lower than that of traditional fuel vehicles
The rate of new energy vehicle fire accidents in China in 2019 was 0.49 per 10,000 vehicles (accidents in 2019 involved 187 vehicles, the 2019 retention of about 3.81 million vehicles). since 2020, the annualized fire accident rate of new energy vehicles is 0.26 per 10,000 (due to the overall reduction in travel mileage due to the new crown epidemic). And according to data released by the relevant departments of the public security sector, the annual fire accident rate for conventional vehicles is about 1-2 per 10,000.
Conclusion 2
China's new energy vehicle fire accident rate is significantly lower than that of foreign countries
2012-2019 The annual Tesla safety report shows that one Tesla combustion accident occurs every 280 million kilometers, and the combustion accident rate of China's new energy vehicles is 447 million kilometers 1 time (2018-2019 national regulatory platform statistics).
Conclusion 3
Fewer vehicles involved in fires of large automakers
Conclusion 4
Passenger cars accounted for a relatively large proportion of the vehicles on fire. larger (Of the 54 vehicles currently on fire in 2020, 25 passenger cars accounted for 46.3% of the vehicles on fire, 25.9% of special purpose vehicles, 24.1% of passenger cars, and 3.7% of other vehicles)
Conclusion 5
Li-Iron Phosphate (LiFePo) batteries are better safety
Conclusion 6
There are more vehicles on fire in motion. 31.4% at rest, 40% in motion, 17.1% in charge, and 11.4% in unknown.
Conclusion 7
The accident rate of new energy vehicles shipped from the factory in 2017 and before is higher.
Sun Fengchun also introduced the national regulatory platform based on big data analysis, able to do early warning of vehicles that may catch fire. The new energy vehicle combustion accident is "discoverable, predictable, disposable".
Early warning capability of the national monitoring platform
As of March 2020, 70.9% of the vehicles involved in combustion accidents were connected to the national monitoring platform, and 62.9% of the vehicles were warned by the national monitoring platform 10 days before the accidents.
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How to understand
How do you understand this finding of the National Regulatory Platform?
Analysis 1: Are there just so many new energy vehicle fires?
Sun Fengchun introduced, to March 2020, new energy vehicles access to the national monitoring platform is 81.89%. According to this projection, if there is a new energy car fire, at least 80% will be recorded.
However, the older the car, the more likely it is not to have access to the monitoring platform, and the probability of them catching fire is higher than later cars. One is because of the poor level of technology at the time, and the other is that some parts are aging or unattended. This is recognized by the conclusions of the national platform - the higher rate of factory accidents in 2017 and before.
Secondly, although the monitoring platform access ratio is relatively high, but not all fires are monitored? The national monitoring platform "2020 current statistics of 54 vehicles on fire", does not specify the statistical cut-off time. And according to a statistic I saw based on media reports, there have been 76 new-energy vehicle fires in 2020 as of September 3rd.
Personally, I think the real probability of new-energy car fires is probably quite a bit higher than the national platform statistics.
In addition, when comparing the probability of a fire in a new energy vehicle with the probability of a fire in a fuel car, it is important to take into account the fact that the new energy vehicles that are currently in use are relatively new, and the fuel cars are much older, so if you take this into account, the probability of a fire in a new energy vehicle will be a bit higher.
Analysis 2: Passenger cars account for more?
This point, if you consider the new energy passenger cars in the new energy vehicles accounted for nearly 80% of the background, and the actual fire accounted for only 46.3% of the passenger cars, although accounting for a large proportion of the probability of fire, but smaller.
And, passenger car fires are easy to be known by the outside world, while passenger car and specialty vehicle fires, if they occur in the internal premises of the enterprise, may be easier to cover up and not be recorded.
Analysis 3: Is lithium iron phosphate better?
Before 2017, most of China's new energy vehicles used lithium iron phosphate, but as the regulatory platform said, there were more fires. Lithium iron phosphate is inherently safer, but in China's new energy vehicle practice, it doesn't seem to support this conclusion. It may be that lithium iron phosphate is a bit better than ternary in terms of fire speed and explosiveness.
Analysis 4: Not many fires in charging state?