Set Microelectronics information, bucking the trend as if it were yesterday, the data memory "severe winter in the sound of short-selling panic close.
Local time on the 12th, storage big brother Micron Technology U.S. stock fell 6.37%, totaling 14.33% this week. Many hours later, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix Korean shares of the new house opened as plummeting, as of the close of the day, this week's total slump of up to 8.72% each, 13.62%, the latter a kind of the previous buying and selling day the stock price once hit the lowest limit in recent years.
The data memory troika stock prices Qiqihar landslide, with the recent sales market on the DRAM price will be from up to down negative prediction related. I don't know comprehensive investment analysts with the field _ Department of analysis, when "the winter there are still objections.
Organization investment analysts "slam DRAM market conditions continue to decline?
Into August so far, along with the organization and investment analysts to analyze the world data memory market demand analysis occurs analysis, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stock prices have fluctuated. According to the two companies' previous financial report forecast analysis, both feel that the DRAM price at least to the fourth quarter will be maintained for a long time. Unbeknownst to them, market conditions have continued to decline this week.
TrendForce, a market research organization, published an article on Tuesday highlighting that PCDRAM contract prices in the third quarter to maintain the rate of increase in the forecast upward by 3-8%, but the rate of increase over the second quarter of 25% has been substantial convergence of nature. And the spot trading market from early July has occurred early to require a weaker trend, it is estimated that the fourth quarter PCDRAM prices will flip down up to 5%.
In addition, Morgan Stanley this week published a report called "memory: winter is coming" report, a substantial reduction in data memory, including Micron, SK Hynix and other large-scale factory rating and stock price forecasts, turned into the three giant stock price drop in the fuse.
Investment analyst Joseph Moore wrote in the report, the world's integrated ic shortage caused by many of the requirements have long been gradually declining, data memory producers enjoy the price increase is likely to be gradually reversed in 2022, especially DRAM. although the price is still rising at this stage, but the DRAM requirements are slowly peaking, at the same time to provide the pendulum is gradually catching up with the requirements. The supply and demand is slowly moving towards equalization. Along with supply and demand slowly moving towards equilibrium, the industry chain cycle time has long since 2019 so far for the first time from the "mid-late" towards the "end".
Moore particularly emphasized that for Micron, in the past six months, despite its business process significantly improved, but because of its DRAM business process operating scale is huge, its shares will be the first to bear the impact of the price drop, thus Micron's rating from plus to own, and share price forecasts from 10 five dollars down nearly 30% to 75 dollars.
According to the same reason, the report also lowered SK Hynix's stock rating to executive hold from plus, and lowered its market outlook rating for the Korean technology sector to cautious from neutral.
It is worth mentioning that on the 4th of that month, the report published by DAMO also held a cheerful mindset towards the running memory sales market, and strongly recommended Micron and SK Hynix two stocks, broadly speaking, only 8 days, the change of mindset can be said to be sky-high.
In addition to this, as of the 12th, in the scientific study of Micron shares of the United States Wall Street investment analysts, there are 28 on the stock to give a "buy rating, 6 to give a "own rating, _ have sold rating, the average value of the stock price forecast of $115.
"High inventory vs. low supply industry contradictions have their own factual arguments
The strong reaction of the secondary market is very much due to the "high inventory dilemma" that pervades the semiconductor industry today. And that's the key factual argument of the above "critics.
TrendForce in the aforementioned report shows that the spot trading market requires weak data signals from a variety of touch group plant to go to the high inventory, and gradually proactive price cuts for sale, prompting its futures prices in recent years for the first time less than the contract price, and the deficit price is close to 20%, a short period of time, the driving force of the price is difficult to appear.
Damo report emphasized that the supply exceeds the production volume will be conducive to tighten the inventory volume, so it began to feel that as long as the requirements in the fourth quarter to maintain strong, the price is very likely to increase again, due to unawareness of the recent weeks require a certain degree of evil, resulting in lower price estimates. Full consideration of the first and second quarter DRAM prices have increased by 35% compared to the end of the previous year, the more critical is that part of the producers have accumulated excessive inventory, which will cause the price of 2022 or a substantial drop.
But a part of the sales and marketing and field personnel for this matter to distinguish not recognized. Korean sales and marketing personnel emphasized that the negative mentality towards Korean semiconductor companies at this stage is overly obvious. They feel that it is too early to judge the world's data memory sales market has entered a recession, and from the point of view of earnings, the stock price is too low.
The Samsung certificate_ indicates that "Samsung Electronics' DRAM inventory at this stage is at 5-6 days, which is the least in its history, and thus, the DRAM price dip is likely to be short-term and weak. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, said, "with PCDRAM prices are not relevant, network server DRAM prices continue to increase. "Korean data memory industry chain is still a very good investment.
In addition from the DRAM related index producer's mentality seems to be on DRAM in the short term all hold cheerful prediction, and the production capacity to provide the difficult problem is the key specification of its make a distinction.
ADATA, a large storage touch-set manufacturer, believes that the upstream and downstream production capacity of DRAM will be limited in the next five years. And from the requirements, nowadays various producers are promoting mass production of the new generation of DDR5, because its manufacturing is more difficult and complicated, will inevitably consume a lot of DRAM production capacity. In the medium to long term, it seems that new applications such as big data centers, 5G and its automotive electronics are increasing the use of DRAM, and the high demand trend is predicted to continue until after the first quarter of 2022.
The key commodity is DDR3 DRAM large-scale factory Huabang Electric also recently indicated that the price decline at this stage is mainly high-capacity DRAM futures price adjustment, DDR3 and other niche commodities is not very harmful. Moreover, the original production capacity has not been significantly improved, although the Korean large-scale factories will give new production capacity in 2022, but not for niche DRAM, in addition to the Korean factories continue to transfer the DDR3 production capacity to the CIS, the same will be narrowed DDR3 production capacity. Overall, it seems that the strong demand for upstream and downstream applications, the trend of data memory upward cycle system is not easy to change in the next five years.
But Damo also indicates that, from the requirement side, the data memory sales market has long since rushed from the past by the PC core situation focus on more diverse, higher storage requirements of the terminal equipment, from the provision side, the field of convergence has also raised the new competitors into the door, so even if the total amount of sales is reduced, and the delay time will probably remain unchanged, but the strength of the likely not as big as in the past.
TrendForce emphasized that because the two sides of the deal couldn't agree on a price tag, the third-quarter DRAM contract price for network servers looked more staggered than it did in the past, adding a large element of uncertainty to the market price in the fourth quarter. DRAM control module maker Apacer, on the other hand, held a similar suggestion to Goldman Sachs that network server DRAM requirements remain strong.
Summary
Overall, it seems that DRAM is not going to turn from boom to bust, the field _ Department still has a lot of contradictions, but the secondary market thus caused by the main performance of the sharp decline in sales, but also to the semiconductor industry is still in the upward and downward cycle of time, sounded the alarm. In the out-of-stock price rise tide into the second half of the time, similar situation, may also produce a lot of times.
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